Following these capper's , not a bad idea (Pick 4 Standings)

Journeyman · Nov 10, 2004

Week 9 Standings

<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>Chriscol...................23-12-1.......(+9.8)
MD Kid.....................22-13-1.......(+7.7)
Newport...................21-13-2.......(+6.7)
Hawkeye..................22-14.......(+6.6)
Tomorrow's News....21-14-1.......(+5.6)
Panther...................20-14-2.......(+4.6)
Journeyman...............21-15.......(+4.5)
FunkSoulBrother........21-15.......(+4.5)
Curt.........................20-15-1.......(+3.5)
Bucsfan...................20-16.......(+2.4)
SportSavant.............19-16-1.......(+1.4)
Playersonly69...........19-16-1.......(+1.4)
V.Treehouse...................19-16-1.......(+1.4)
Guysmiley...................19-16-1.......(+1.4)
Zapster....................19-16-1.......(+1.4)
ILLINI.....................17-17-2.......(-1.7)
Kiss1........................16-19-1........(-4.9)
Fishhead...................16-19-1.......(-4.9)
T-Dogg Revisted........ 13-23.......(-12.3)

Its tightening up at the top :EEK:

wilheim · Nov 10, 2004

Some nice percentages. How to go.

wil.

Doug · Nov 10, 2004

Does anyone act as a line-cop here ? If you follow, you don't get the best line, often better to lead. It seems selections are trusted to poster's lines, without verification, not great.

Newish poster ( Snoball) opined that following picks by posters in BCN contest could be valuable, in an earlier thread.

I'd warn anybody new against that practice.

You get people ( like me) betting stale contest lines late vs. morning lines. If you follow anybody ( to newbies) don't follow a stale line. If you can't get the line in a contest from the current hot guy, don't take a line worse than quoted line, it's bad long-term.

A half-point is basically your edge, you can't give it away, and profit

Journeyman · Nov 10, 2004

Doug everyone on this list is playing with the same line...We all use the same legit line from pinnacle...no cheating in this thread sir...BTW, nice job in hoops

Journeyman · Nov 10, 2004

I misunderstood, your question or you may have changed it, or I may need sleep...

I would guess some players wait to watch line movement, as we do use the line thats available on wednesday as our contest line...Some (myself and a few others) post their picks in the middle of the week, before the line moves...

I still think its a good barometer to take a look at some of these players picks...this is a pay contest, everyone should be taking it serious since they put up their own money.

Doug · Nov 10, 2004

Journeyman said:
I misunderstood, your question or you may have changed it, or I may need sleep...

I would guess some players wait to watch line movement, as we do use the line thats available on wednesday as our contest line...Some (myself and a few others) post their picks in the middle of the week, before the line moves...

I still think its a good barometer to take a look at some of these players picks...this is a pay contest, everyone should be taking it serious since they put up their own money.

J-man: I wasn't speaking about this particular contest. I was speaking in broader terms. I don't know the details here, I guess I passed this particular one for some reason.

I was giving my wisdom ( generally directed to newbies), to help the new guy !

We got mis-directed ( a term we used at USPS when , mail was lost).

I'm over it, are U ?

Doug

winbet · Nov 10, 2004

Spot on Doug J

Doug · Nov 10, 2004

Journeyman said:
I misunderstood, your question or you may have changed it, or I may need sleep...

I would guess some players wait to watch line movement, as we do use the line thats available on wednesday as our contest line...Some (myself and a few others) post their picks in the middle of the week, before the line moves...

I still think its a good barometer to take a look at some of these players picks...this is a pay contest, everyone should be taking it serious since they put up their own money.

J-man: If I changed the question, would not an edit appear ?

Doug · Nov 10, 2004

Brother J-man : What would we have if we always agreed ? It wouldn't stimulate any conversation !

Take a nap, we can fight later. I picked up a groupie !

Best Wishes, he stole my tagline... it's only fair !... I'll pass the cigar. Some will get the reference, others wont, it's of little relevance.
Doug

Fishhead · Nov 10, 2004

20 total players up a NET 39.1 units.

VERY NICELY DONE CONTESTANTS!

TheMDKid · Nov 10, 2004

DougJ said:
Does anyone act as a line-cop here ? If you follow, you don't get the best line, often better to lead. It seems selections are trusted to poster's lines, without verification, not great.

Newish poster ( Snoball) opined that following picks by posters in BCN contest could be valuable, in an earlier thread.

I'd warn anybody new against that practice.

You get people ( like me) betting stale contest lines late vs. morning lines. If you follow anybody ( to newbies) don't follow a stale line. If you can't get the line in a contest from the current hot guy, don't take a line worse than quoted line, it's bad long-term.

A half-point is basically your edge, you can't give it away, and profit

DougJ - You make a very good point here. Sometimes the line moves significantly from the open and to give up 1/2 point or more just to play a hot guy's picks is a recipe for eventual disaster. I will say this, however (and note that I'm speaking for myself only here, because I don't know if this is true with the others) - I am usually one of the late posters, but I don't play games because the line went my way. I have bet real money on every one of my picks and I've actually had a BETTER record on the real bets than I've had in this contest. Frequently, BETTER lines than the opening line present themselves to an astute handicapper. Having several outs, and taking advantage of the plethera of books with free half point promo's, reduced juice, and lines much squarer than Pinny (even squarer than Pinny's OPENING line), has been a winning formula for me.

Journeyman · Nov 10, 2004

Doug I wasn't disagreeing my friend, I was trying to answer the real question....I thought I saw the words Co-Capt in your original post, you can edit for about 5 minutes without the edit showing...no worries sir, I just didn't answer your question correct the first time, atleast thats' what I thought...

Md Kid..the Rams game was the prime example , everyone who selected them was getting 3 , while the line moved to -3...I was sure we all had that one lol..

TheMDKid · Nov 10, 2004

JMan,
The Rams/NE game isn't the best example because 'cappers that took the gift 6 points still didn't win. A better example would be the Monday night game a few weeks back when StL was listed -6.5 over TB. The line by game time had gone to -7 and even -7.5 and the Rams won by 7.

My point, however, is that I've frequently picked teams in the contest where the contest line was WORSE than I could get later in the week or at another book. For example, my one push this year was the Jets +6 vs NE. I actually played that game for real and won because I played it with a free half point at Skybook.

Journeyman · Nov 10, 2004

MD Kid, I don't think ANYONE really does that..not many lines even fit the example...IN all honesty I have barely even paid attention to it...I doubt many if any are playing it that way...

Great Job BTW..

jwunderdog · Nov 10, 2004

THere are a lot of seasoned cappers listed above, but to suggest it is a good idea to follow any of these guys based on 39 plays is nuts. Show me at least 2 years and 150-200 plays and I will follow someone. I have seen some of the worst cappers go 30-10 and some of the best go 10-30.

Not meaning to offend any of the players, as there are several listed that I would follow but it is only because I have seem them post for several years.

Journeyman · Nov 10, 2004

Alot of players don't post picks on a daily basis and do very well...I was merely giving props to the ones doing well...but thanks for your opinion jwunderdog

TheMDKid · Nov 10, 2004

jwunderdog said:
THere are a lot of seasoned cappers listed above, but to suggest it is a good idea to follow any of these guys based on 39 plays is nuts. Show me at least 2 years and 150-200 plays and I will follow someone. I have seen some of the worst cappers go 30-10 and some of the best go 10-30.

Not meaning to offend any of the players, as there are several listed that I would follow but it is only because I have seem them post for several years.

jw,
Instead of trying to single out one particular capper to follow, why not look at the cappers in this contest AS A GROUP. By doing this, you'd have a total of 684 plays with which to make a judgement on - not just 36. Certainly, 684 plays is sufficient for making a judgement. For instance in this contest, the combined record of all contestants is 368-299-17 or 55.1% winners. What's more, the combined winning pct would be even better if all games with both sides picked were eliminated.

One advantageous way to use the collective knowledge of the group would be to play one unit per team, multiplied by the NET total number of cappers picking that team. For example, last week 5 cappers picked Buf +3 and 4 cappers picked NYJ -3 (Buf's opponent). Using this system, one would've played Buf +3 for one unit. The best part is, that no matter what happens, you automatically end up better off than the group as a whole because you don't lose vig on the games with both sides picked. In this case, since Buf won, you would be 1-0 for +1.00 unit, instead of 5-4 for +0.60 units. But even if Buf had lost, you'd be still be ahead of the group (0-1 for -1.10 units vs. 4-5 for -1.50 units).

Journeyman · Nov 10, 2004

Very good points Md Kid...I know many on the list are solid, whether they post a card everyday or not....

sportsmonitor · Nov 10, 2004

What is this contest? NFL, CFB, NBA or any of the combination?

Journeyman · Nov 10, 2004

Its NFL...pick 4 games a week

Following these capper's , not a bad idea (Pick 4 Standings)

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