Louisville looks to remain unbeaten in league play and seeks its first victory over TCU when the teams meet Wednesday night.
The No. 12 Cardinals (6-1, 4-0 Conference USA), who have the highest ranking in school history, have lost all three meetings with TCU (4-4, 2-3), beginning with a 37-22 defeat at Fort Worth in 2001. The Cardinals came into that contest league champs, ranked 17th and riding a seven-game winning streak when the Horned Frogs beat them to keep their own bowl hopes alive.
After a 45-31 loss in Louisville the next season, the Cardinals fell 31-28 to the Horned Frogs last November when TCU was having its own spectacular run. TCU won its first 10 games and reached No. 6 at one point in the BCS standings - the highest ranking ever by a school that is not in a BCS conference.
Now the Cardinals are back on top with the Horned Frogs struggling for another bowl bid.
"Louisville won't overlook us," said TCU coach Gary Patterson. "They've got too much at stake and there's too much water under the bridge between us. Louisville wanted to end the season undefeated in the league in 2001 when we beat them. On any given day anyone can beat anyone."
Louisville senior quarterback Stefan LeFors, who completed 31-of-46 passes for 459 yards and a touchdown in last year's loss to TCU, continues to drive the Cardinals offense. The Cardinals are third in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 44 points a game and generate the most yards per game in the country with 519 per contest.
LeFors connected on 24 of 34 attempts for 321 yards as Louisville posted 599 yards of total offense in a 56-49 victory over Memphis on Thursday. The win, its second in a row, moved the Cardinals up two spots in the Top 25.
While the offense excelled, the defense struggled against Memphis. Louisville came in with the nation's 11th-ranked defense, but gave up 17 first-quarter points after allowing just one touchdown in its first six games. The Cardinals surrendered 602 total yards.
Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino doesn't expect the effort to carry over against TCU.
"I think that (the defense) will continue to have confidence," said Petrino. "Even though they didn't perform as well as they normally have. They also understand TCU is good so we are going to have to be efficient. They have tremendous speed offensively."
While Louisville has just six days to prepare for the contest, TCU is coming off a bye week after a 21-10 defeat to Cincinnati on Oct. 30. The Horned Frogs have lost four of their last six games to drop to .500 and are tied for fifth in the league.
Since going 1-10 in 1997, TCU has had three 10-win seasons and been to six straight bowl games but that streak is in jeopardy if they don't win two of its last three games.
While Brandon Hassell (sprained ankle) and fellow quarterback Tye Gunn (swollen knee) have traded snaps and starts because of injury most of the season, the offense has still averaged 434 yards and 33 points a game. The defense, though, has been porous, allowing 425 yards and 34 points a game.
Louisville, which is bowl eligible for the seventh straight season, has won three straight and eight of its last nine at home.
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The No. 12 Cardinals (6-1, 4-0 Conference USA), who have the highest ranking in school history, have lost all three meetings with TCU (4-4, 2-3), beginning with a 37-22 defeat at Fort Worth in 2001. The Cardinals came into that contest league champs, ranked 17th and riding a seven-game winning streak when the Horned Frogs beat them to keep their own bowl hopes alive.
After a 45-31 loss in Louisville the next season, the Cardinals fell 31-28 to the Horned Frogs last November when TCU was having its own spectacular run. TCU won its first 10 games and reached No. 6 at one point in the BCS standings - the highest ranking ever by a school that is not in a BCS conference.
Now the Cardinals are back on top with the Horned Frogs struggling for another bowl bid.
"Louisville won't overlook us," said TCU coach Gary Patterson. "They've got too much at stake and there's too much water under the bridge between us. Louisville wanted to end the season undefeated in the league in 2001 when we beat them. On any given day anyone can beat anyone."
Louisville senior quarterback Stefan LeFors, who completed 31-of-46 passes for 459 yards and a touchdown in last year's loss to TCU, continues to drive the Cardinals offense. The Cardinals are third in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 44 points a game and generate the most yards per game in the country with 519 per contest.
LeFors connected on 24 of 34 attempts for 321 yards as Louisville posted 599 yards of total offense in a 56-49 victory over Memphis on Thursday. The win, its second in a row, moved the Cardinals up two spots in the Top 25.
While the offense excelled, the defense struggled against Memphis. Louisville came in with the nation's 11th-ranked defense, but gave up 17 first-quarter points after allowing just one touchdown in its first six games. The Cardinals surrendered 602 total yards.
Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino doesn't expect the effort to carry over against TCU.
"I think that (the defense) will continue to have confidence," said Petrino. "Even though they didn't perform as well as they normally have. They also understand TCU is good so we are going to have to be efficient. They have tremendous speed offensively."
While Louisville has just six days to prepare for the contest, TCU is coming off a bye week after a 21-10 defeat to Cincinnati on Oct. 30. The Horned Frogs have lost four of their last six games to drop to .500 and are tied for fifth in the league.
Since going 1-10 in 1997, TCU has had three 10-win seasons and been to six straight bowl games but that streak is in jeopardy if they don't win two of its last three games.
While Brandon Hassell (sprained ankle) and fellow quarterback Tye Gunn (swollen knee) have traded snaps and starts because of injury most of the season, the offense has still averaged 434 yards and 33 points a game. The defense, though, has been porous, allowing 425 yards and 34 points a game.
Louisville, which is bowl eligible for the seventh straight season, has won three straight and eight of its last nine at home.
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The Associated Press News Service
Play the over...it's part of a 23-3 system where teams averaging over >4.8 yards per carry against a team averaging between 3.5 and 4.3 yards per carry, at least 7 games into the season, after gaining 275 yards in their previous game.
I wouldn't touch any part of this game with my BR though. No way.
I wouldn't touch any part of this game with my BR though. No way.
Taking a good hard look at TCU this evening...
Game Day-Star Telegram
TCU coach Gary Patterson was in his office late last week when he began studying Louisville's stat sheet.
The Cardinals pretty much led the conference in every important category that had an offensive or defensive heading.
"I'd say they're pretty good," he said.
That's putting it mildly.
The Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3 Conference USA) are scrambling to reach their seventh consecutive bowl game, but their postseason pursuit isn't exactly winding down easy street. No. 12 Louisville (6-1, 4-0) is arguably the toughest opponent the Frogs have dealt with to date, and the Frogs are hefty 24 1/2-point underdogs to the Cardinals.
The Cardinals have the nation's second-most efficient passer in Stefan LeFors, and are scoring 44 points per game. Louisville has won its past three home games by a margin of 37.3 points per game, and has the league's top-ranked defense.
In other words, it all adds up to the fact the Horned Frogs are playing a "pretty good" team. And that's not so good.
TCU at Louisville
When: 6:30 p.m. Where: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, Louisville TV: ESPN2
Radio: ESPN/103.3 FM, KTCU/88.7 FM
Line: Louisville by 24 1/2 Series: TCU, 3-0
Last meeting: TCU, 31-28 in 2003
Records: TCU 4-4, 2-3 C-USA; Louisville 6-1, 4-0
THE EDGE
QUARTERBACK
Louisville's Stefan LeFors is the second-most efficient passer in the country, and the guy behind him isn't bad either. Brian Brohm, who sees usually a series each game, is the most talented freshman in the conference. TCU's Tye Gunn might return to his starting role against Louisville, but the Frogs are beat up under center.
Key stat: LeFors' touchdown-to-interception ratio: 10 to 1. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
RUNNING BACKS
Louisville doesn't have a standout rusher like Memphis has with DeAngelo Williams, but the Cardinals have the deepest backfield in the league. Eric Shelton and Michael Bush deliver more punishment than they receive. The Horned Frogs have proven rushers but might not have a 1,000-yard back this season.
Key stat: The Cardinals have the conference's top ground game at 235.4 yards per game. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
WIDE RECEIVERS
Louisville's J.R. Russell entered the season as one of the more celebrated receivers in the league, but LeFors' willingness to spread the ball around has hurt Russell's numbers. The Horned Frogs need to work on hanging on to the football this week after dropping more than a handful of passes against Cincinnati.
Key stat: Louisville's receivers haven't dropped more than 10 passes this season. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
OFFENSIVE LINE
There's a reason the Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the nation. The Louisville line has only allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked 14 times this season. The Horned Frogs have failed to score in two of their past three games when they moved close to the goal line.
Key stat: Louisville has the league's top passing and rushing offense. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
DEFENSIVE LINE
The Horned Frogs have shown improvement on the line over the past two games, but have still struggled with consistently pressuring a quarterback. Louisville has fewer sacks than the Frogs, but the Cardinals have the league's best defense against the run.
Key stat: Louisville has only allowed four rushing touchdowns this season. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
LINEBACKERS
TCU's Martin Patterson needs only three tackles to reach 100 this season. He hasn't had a game with fewer than 10 in a month. Louisville's Robert McCune has enjoyed comparable games this season.
Key stat: Patterson is second in Conference USA with 97 total tackles. EDGE: TCU
DEFENSIVE BACKS
The much-maligned TCU pass coverage hasn't looked bad over the past two weeks, but the Frogs haven't dealt with an offense like Louisville's. Stay tuned. Louisville, which has been mostly strong in pass defense this season, looked out of sorts against Memphis. The Tigers were able to get vertical on the Cards.
Key stat: Louisville is still giving up 100 fewer yards in the air than TCU. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
SPECIAL TEAMS
TCU coach Gary Patterson has turned to Mike Wynn as his starting kicker. Wynn hasn't attempted a field goal or an extra point this season, so there is some wonder about whether the move will make a difference. Louisville doesn't have those issues. In fact, freshman Art Carmody has made 7 of 9 field-goal attempts and has hit all 39 extra-point tries.
Key stat: Peter LoCoco was excused from field-goal duties after going 8-of-14. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
Game Day-Star Telegram
TCU coach Gary Patterson was in his office late last week when he began studying Louisville's stat sheet.
The Cardinals pretty much led the conference in every important category that had an offensive or defensive heading.
"I'd say they're pretty good," he said.
That's putting it mildly.
The Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3 Conference USA) are scrambling to reach their seventh consecutive bowl game, but their postseason pursuit isn't exactly winding down easy street. No. 12 Louisville (6-1, 4-0) is arguably the toughest opponent the Frogs have dealt with to date, and the Frogs are hefty 24 1/2-point underdogs to the Cardinals.
The Cardinals have the nation's second-most efficient passer in Stefan LeFors, and are scoring 44 points per game. Louisville has won its past three home games by a margin of 37.3 points per game, and has the league's top-ranked defense.
In other words, it all adds up to the fact the Horned Frogs are playing a "pretty good" team. And that's not so good.
TCU at Louisville
When: 6:30 p.m. Where: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, Louisville TV: ESPN2
Radio: ESPN/103.3 FM, KTCU/88.7 FM
Line: Louisville by 24 1/2 Series: TCU, 3-0
Last meeting: TCU, 31-28 in 2003
Records: TCU 4-4, 2-3 C-USA; Louisville 6-1, 4-0
THE EDGE
QUARTERBACK
Louisville's Stefan LeFors is the second-most efficient passer in the country, and the guy behind him isn't bad either. Brian Brohm, who sees usually a series each game, is the most talented freshman in the conference. TCU's Tye Gunn might return to his starting role against Louisville, but the Frogs are beat up under center.
Key stat: LeFors' touchdown-to-interception ratio: 10 to 1. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
RUNNING BACKS
Louisville doesn't have a standout rusher like Memphis has with DeAngelo Williams, but the Cardinals have the deepest backfield in the league. Eric Shelton and Michael Bush deliver more punishment than they receive. The Horned Frogs have proven rushers but might not have a 1,000-yard back this season.
Key stat: The Cardinals have the conference's top ground game at 235.4 yards per game. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
WIDE RECEIVERS
Louisville's J.R. Russell entered the season as one of the more celebrated receivers in the league, but LeFors' willingness to spread the ball around has hurt Russell's numbers. The Horned Frogs need to work on hanging on to the football this week after dropping more than a handful of passes against Cincinnati.
Key stat: Louisville's receivers haven't dropped more than 10 passes this season. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
OFFENSIVE LINE
There's a reason the Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the nation. The Louisville line has only allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked 14 times this season. The Horned Frogs have failed to score in two of their past three games when they moved close to the goal line.
Key stat: Louisville has the league's top passing and rushing offense. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
DEFENSIVE LINE
The Horned Frogs have shown improvement on the line over the past two games, but have still struggled with consistently pressuring a quarterback. Louisville has fewer sacks than the Frogs, but the Cardinals have the league's best defense against the run.
Key stat: Louisville has only allowed four rushing touchdowns this season. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
LINEBACKERS
TCU's Martin Patterson needs only three tackles to reach 100 this season. He hasn't had a game with fewer than 10 in a month. Louisville's Robert McCune has enjoyed comparable games this season.
Key stat: Patterson is second in Conference USA with 97 total tackles. EDGE: TCU
DEFENSIVE BACKS
The much-maligned TCU pass coverage hasn't looked bad over the past two weeks, but the Frogs haven't dealt with an offense like Louisville's. Stay tuned. Louisville, which has been mostly strong in pass defense this season, looked out of sorts against Memphis. The Tigers were able to get vertical on the Cards.
Key stat: Louisville is still giving up 100 fewer yards in the air than TCU. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
SPECIAL TEAMS
TCU coach Gary Patterson has turned to Mike Wynn as his starting kicker. Wynn hasn't attempted a field goal or an extra point this season, so there is some wonder about whether the move will make a difference. Louisville doesn't have those issues. In fact, freshman Art Carmody has made 7 of 9 field-goal attempts and has hit all 39 extra-point tries.
Key stat: Peter LoCoco was excused from field-goal duties after going 8-of-14. EDGE: LOUISVILLE
Wagerline consensus is pretty heavy on Louisville. Probably Slim's sheet too.
FWIW, I see it this way. Big dog line. Apparently public still on the fav. So why go through reams of stats, theories about auditions for jobs, etc, etc etc. No doubt some valid info, but...we expect both teams to score. We really know enough about them. Do you want Louisville ahead by two TD's and then TCU punches one in. Later their ahead by three then TCU punches one in.
Finally, likely 60% scenario is at least the back door cover gets you if your even that far ahead to begin with. But you can be down 31 in the last minute and still be in it. Bottom line: you have a huge dog that ain't total chit in a rivalry game. You have what appears to be the Contrarian position. You have a 60% probability right there. You may be wrong but more likely than not you are right. What more do you want? Pull the trigger and enjoy the rest of your afternoon. The best dog price may already be gone. Don't know haven't checked it since I made my bet.
FWIW, I see it this way. Big dog line. Apparently public still on the fav. So why go through reams of stats, theories about auditions for jobs, etc, etc etc. No doubt some valid info, but...we expect both teams to score. We really know enough about them. Do you want Louisville ahead by two TD's and then TCU punches one in. Later their ahead by three then TCU punches one in.
Finally, likely 60% scenario is at least the back door cover gets you if your even that far ahead to begin with. But you can be down 31 in the last minute and still be in it. Bottom line: you have a huge dog that ain't total chit in a rivalry game. You have what appears to be the Contrarian position. You have a 60% probability right there. You may be wrong but more likely than not you are right. What more do you want? Pull the trigger and enjoy the rest of your afternoon. The best dog price may already be gone. Don't know haven't checked it since I made my bet.
