What do you do?

Been winning for 12 years or so on UK Jumps Horse racing - have kelly staking plan - have my own ratings which i trust - and WAS $11K up this season - started start Oct.

Been going thru a terrible run - last fence fallers, no pace in races where there are supposed to be 2 or 3 setting a pace, seconditis - generally some plain bad luck. I am now down $3K on the season and have no faith/belief - in fact i have the belief that something will go wrong and thats whats happening.

e.g. yesterday backed a horse at 6/4 on betfair - didn't see the race but betting in running the horse went down to 1.01 (-10000) - the horse somehow managed to falter suddenly and get beat. Have had fallers when 10 lengths clear and on bridle on hurdle races (small obstacles).

When am in this negative thought process it seems as if I can subconciously make my horse lose from inconcievable unlosable positions. My betting season is only 6 months long so it seems wrong to take a break and it feels like sod's law that if i change mty staking plan to something lower then I'll get loads of winners and feel gutted.

I'm sure you've all been in this position before though long losing streaks are less common with 2 outcome events and would apprerciate your advice.

your bet size has to now decrease since your bankroll has been hurt.



dont think of it as being down for the season. Only thing that matters is betting positive expectation wagers from this point forward. Bet approx 2.5% of bankroll on a large positive expectation situation, pass on the rest. your bankroll will increase over time.

good luck.

Being a horse player myself (flats). Having read that you have won for the last 12 years or so I would say that your just getting some bad beats. I know it gets tough when everything seems to go wrong, but with your proven success I say just keep plugging away as you always have. It will undoubtedly turn in your favor. God knows that I have had some tough times in the game, but have learned that if you start betting "scared money" it will never get better. So keep going with your own capping and I'm sure in the not to distant future you will be posting that you are finally up for the year. GL

the kelly staking system works only on postive expectation wagers - that's what I've been doing all season. I haven't been chasing on anything i half fancy so discipline is not the problem and the bankroll diminishing takes care of reducing stakes.


maybe i should just persevere and trust i will come out the otherside - just feels harder when you are betting bigger than previous years.