Fav, Fav, Fav, Every Monday night. Will this run end? Inside my reasons why not.....

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After speaking with a wise professional gambler tonight, I am in agreement with him that the rule change favoring the receivers was never met with any line adjustment. He conveyed to me that in no season have QB's and the offenses ever been more prolific. What is the reason that BM's are looking at Huge losses after Monday night's and other big chalk games like Thanksgiving? The BM's and the professional gamblers aren't making the adjustment in their analysis of the game. Bottom line, this rule change has made these games a free for all in favor of the better qb's and better offenses. Have the bm's or professional gamblers adjusted? The answer is no. Green Bay should have been 9 tonight, and Indi should have opened 10 against Detroit.
New England should have been 9 against baltimore, and Phil should have been the same against the Giants. Etc. Etc. Etc. The way things have gone, even this week New England should be at least 9 and they are 7. The bm's and the professional gamblers are waiting for these shiat teams to get there, but given the huge advantage given to the superior offenses after the rule change, these surprises aren't happening, and the squares are having a party. The bm's with the balls to use what they deem the "right" number are the ones flourishing right now. The ones who have "faith" in the numbers are getting drilled. Even the "professional" gamblers are looking remedial as they continue to stand around like a deer in headlights waiting for the hapless teams to cover in spots where they are "supposed" to get there. Just my lame .02. I must concede that I think I learned something from my friend who enlightened me on the lack of adjustment following the rule change. Just some food for thought. To the squares who are counting their money...enjoy the party, it appears that no end is in sight. :nono5:
 
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Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
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I was looking back at some NFL lines from 5-15 years ago and every week teams like SF, Dallas, and Buffalo were huge favorites at home, and at least dd favs on the road to average to chit teams. The oddsmakers will adjust because they will find it better to win money and give their stipends to the sharps instead of this crap that's going on right now. I played my first road favorites that I've played in 5 years this week!!!!!!!
 

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Hitman26 said:
I was looking back at some NFL lines from 5-15 years ago and every week teams like SF, Dallas, and Buffalo were huge favorites at home, and at least dd favs on the road to average to chit teams. The oddsmakers will adjust because they will find it better to win money and give their stipends to the sharps instead of this crap that's going on right now. I played my first road favorites that I've played in 5 years this week!!!!!!!
I agree with you 1000%. I have never seen lines so low with so many predictable favorites getting there. I remember in the 80's when the Bears were a 23 point favorite. Lines like that will get people on the dogs. Bottom line is that the lines are supposed to balance the action. Putting out a 7 on the hottest team in the NFL, GB does nothing to deter anyone from laying the points, hence one sided action. BM's are supposed to be smarter than putting out #'s that elicit only one way action.
 

Raiders 007 is a underated poster
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goodpost makes sense...when will lines be adjusted..needs to happen soon it seems to easy..
 

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The rule changes on pass defense were supposed to help the weaker teams become more competitive but in reality they helped the good teams just as much if not more. Teams like the Eagles, Pats, Packers, Colts, Steelers and Falcons are almost unstoppable on offense now. Throw in a time consuming running game like the Pats and Steelers have and those teams dominate time of possesion and cover easily. Remember illegal contact is being called in favor of New England just as much as it is being called in favor of teams like Arizona.


wil.
 

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If you continue to bet large favorites the rest of the way, you will lose. Period.
 

SportsOptions/Line up with the pros
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Interesting post. When this rule change first came out I was thinking more along the lines of the effect it would have on the totals, not so much if the rule would help the weaker or strong teams. It makes sense though if you think about it. Normally the stronger teams (as a general rule) will have the most talent at the skill positions. If the rule allows the talent to play more then it probably will favor them much more than the weaker teams.


Sort of like pucks, I think the clutch and grab stuff usually tends to make games closer and perhaps neutralizes talent. On the open ice with a wide open game it would probably stand to reason the faster more talented teams would benefit more from it then the weaker teams. Maybe it's no surprise Manning is going to break the season touchdown record this year?
 

ODU GURU
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What an outstanding and interesting topic. Does anyone have a scoring comparison for this year compared to last year at this time?

Your point makes a lot of sense...

THE SHRINK
 

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May be true with the very good teams(hard to define, subjective) but over all still a 50/50 split for favorites and dogs depending on final lines.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=400 border=1><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Away Teams</TD><TD align=left>91-78-6</TD><TD align=left>53.85%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Home Teams</TD><TD align=left>78-91-6</TD><TD align=left>46.15%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Favorites</TD><TD align=left>84-84-6</TD><TD align=left>50.00%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Dogs</TD><TD align=left>84-84-6</TD><TD align=left>50.00%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Away Favorites</TD><TD align=left>30-24-3</TD><TD align=left>55.56%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Away Dogs</TD><TD align=left>60-54-3</TD><TD align=left>52.63%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Home Favorites</TD><TD align=left>54-60-3</TD><TD align=left>47.37%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Home Dogs</TD><TD align=left>24-30-0</TD><TD align=left>44.44%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<CENTER>Over vs. Under</CENTER>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=400 border=1><TBODY><TR bgColor=#0033cc><TD align=left>Category</TD><TD align=left>Overs</TD><TD align=left>Percent</TD><TD align=left>Unders</TD><TD align=left>Percent</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Non-Overtime Games</TD><TD align=left>78</TD><TD align=left>46.99%</TD><TD align=left>88</TD><TD align=left>53.01%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Overtime Games</TD><TD align=left>8</TD><TD align=left>100.00%</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>All Games</TD><TD align=left>86</TD><TD align=left>49.43%</TD><TD align=left>88</TD><TD align=left>50.57%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

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jwunderdog said:
May be true with the very good teams(hard to define, subjective) but over all still a 50/50 split for favorites and dogs depending on final lines.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=400 border=1><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Away Teams</TD><TD align=left>91-78-6</TD><TD align=left>53.85%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Home Teams</TD><TD align=left>78-91-6</TD><TD align=left>46.15%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Favorites</TD><TD align=left>84-84-6</TD><TD align=left>50.00%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Dogs</TD><TD align=left>84-84-6</TD><TD align=left>50.00%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Away Favorites</TD><TD align=left>30-24-3</TD><TD align=left>55.56%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Away Dogs</TD><TD align=left>60-54-3</TD><TD align=left>52.63%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Home Favorites</TD><TD align=left>54-60-3</TD><TD align=left>47.37%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Home Dogs</TD><TD align=left>24-30-0</TD><TD align=left>44.44%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




<CENTER>Over vs. Under</CENTER>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=400 border=1><TBODY><TR bgColor=#0033cc><TD align=left>Category</TD><TD align=left>Overs</TD><TD align=left>Percent</TD><TD align=left>Unders</TD><TD align=left>Percent</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Non-Overtime Games</TD><TD align=left>78</TD><TD align=left>46.99%</TD><TD align=left>88</TD><TD align=left>53.01%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>Overtime Games</TD><TD align=left>8</TD><TD align=left>100.00%</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0%</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffee><TD align=left>All Games</TD><TD align=left>86</TD><TD align=left>49.43%</TD><TD align=left>88</TD><TD align=left>50.57%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Your stats here are actually inaccurate at best. You are looking at the entire NFL season. Sure there are going to be myriad of games among the weak vs. the weak where you will find deviation to the norm. What I am talking about is the disparity between the great teams vs. the teams that are inferior in certain spots. If you take a game where washington is favored over the giants, and the dog gets there to even out the stat, ultimately it means nothing when you compare it to pointspread record stats of teams like Pitt, Indi, New England, etc. the disparity is there, and the lines have not been adjusted against them, period. Enjoy your day.
 

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