Tomorrow is Paradise for Teaser Players...(at least I think)

-Slim- · Dec 11, 2004

How juicy do these all sound?

Cincinnatti +21
Cleveland +21
Giants +20
Detroit +19.5
Seattle +16.5
Oakland +17.5
Chicago +17
New Orleans +17
Indianapolis -.5
Jets +15
St Louis +17
San Fran +17
Tampa Bay +15
Washington +19

Those betting sweetheart teasers are drooling at tomorrow.... Have to see how many of those hit though....dont even know how many combinations there would be though...

:banger:

Intruder · Dec 11, 2004

assuming they bet the dog up.........the way it's been I would be shocked if you're not writing the favs down all day.

Horseshoe · Dec 12, 2004

Wiseguys(a majority of which are loaded with extreme false pride and ego), whether right-or-wrong on the debatable matter, mostly consider teasers of any sort beneath them, while some sharper players stick with primarily 2 tm/6 pt'ers.

And I agree with Intruder, that the square public will move strictly favs to pick(always do), with the teasing faction of semi-sharps/squares playing a mixed bag.

Usually between the last week of November and the end of December, there is a 13-3 ATS dog day, where a good 10 of 16 games is dogs outright..Lord knows the BMs are doing Raindoctor dances about now.

WildBill · Dec 12, 2004

What is the point of taking a team at +21 on a super teaser? At this time of year a big dog is either going to show up or look like they didn't get on the bus. I don't see the point in giving up the return on a team like Cleveland or San Francisco, both in the lets get this season over with mode. A decent effort likely gets them a straight-up cover, but a stinker means the opponent can name the margin on them.

I do agree teasers look good, but for other reasons. Good use of teasers is to move the number to an FG or less, or move a number up beyond 7 points on a dog. With so many games up around a TD, this makes for a fertile field of teasers with the chalk. I think Falcons look very good for a teaser key game, they have struggled blowing opponents out but find ways to win at least and should cover a -1.5 or -2. Cards look good to me, as I said I can't imagine what Erickson can do to get the Niners to show up, but this being the Cards I have a hard time trusting them laying a TD. At home they should win easily, but at least if they struggle they should still win outright. If you go to a 7-pointer the Ravens look strong. I just don't trust that offense laying over an FG, but the Giants are so clearly packed in for the season hard to even think of going the other way.

Horseshoe · Dec 12, 2004

WB, I agree, it's at the point of the season where stat-padding, aesthetic window-dressing, and garbage-time margin-closing mean very little, as you either come to play or never made the flight at all..except in flesh only.

Agents can sell stats of guys like Trent Green and Aaron Brooks(used only as examples, as both are backed by horrid Defenses that dig huge early holes) all they want, but GMs keep score of their own notes..of whether score TDs when game still a game(scoring junctures), whom is playing full-bore/half-speed/rolling-over/etc..

Long-term winning teaser play should be primarily guided by strategic value-moves, not a current week's card of appetizing "eye-candy" that jumps off the page at a bettor.

-Slim- · Dec 12, 2004

Bill, though I would never recommend people bet teasers, I looked at the lines yesterday and man do those look good....

Ive been very very very wrong before, lets wait and see how wrong I am this time around. Im not betting these or anything, just want to see what the outcome would be....

Fishhead · Dec 12, 2004

-Slim- said:
Bill, though I would never recommend people bet teasers, I looked at the lines yesterday and man do those look good....

Ive been very very very wrong before, lets wait and see how wrong I am this time around. Im not betting these or anything, just want to see what the outcome would be....

Quite frankly, teasers are some of the best types of wagers a professional can make.

-Slim- · Dec 12, 2004

I agree, but you really gotta know what you{re doing fish, its easy for someone to drown themselves with them if they dont have several things down (like going across 2 key numbers n **** like that)

Fishhead · Dec 12, 2004

-Slim- said:
I agree, but you really gotta know what you{re doing fish, its easy for someone to drown themselves with them if they dont have several things down (like going across 2 key numbers n **** like that)

A point well taken!

Yes, and i guess for that reason, your statement of never recommending teasers is a point that is well taken and understandable.

ps- Just as important as the KEY number concept, is the ODDS layed on a particular teaser also.

quantumleap · Dec 12, 2004

WildBill:

I took the super teaser that included Cincy today at +21. They are certainly not a team out of contention so they will show up to play today. However, since they are playing New England at home they may not cover the 11 points on the regular bet.

WildBill · Dec 12, 2004

Nothing wrong with your reasoning on Cincy. These plays aren't bad a few weeks earlier on, basically from about week 4 to week 11 or 12 is when teasers are strongest. Before and after that they lose some value. In other periods I find just straight bets and regular parlays offer better value, where you start getting lines that are off from true value and teams playing way above or below expected.

Horseshoe · Dec 13, 2004

So Slim, with only NYG, Oak, and Chi getting run out, tell me you cherry-picked that laundry list for some round-robins..11 of 14.

Or had the board Under?

Tomorrow is Paradise for Teaser Players...(at least I think)

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