it was 4th and 9 from the 25...the defense is playing prevent. you go for the touchdown then try to get the ball back on the onsides kick.wilheim said:
you kick the fg, get the ball back with 16 seconds and now you're on the 45 instead of the 25. the down doesn't matter with 16 seconds left.
what a stroke.
4th and long in FG range down 17 with 16 seconds you definitely kick the FG. Look, either way you need to recover the onside kick and then have time to score. If they run a play there, the best they can do is get in the endzone have maybe 10 ticks left, still needing the onide kick. But a TD is maybe a 20% chance on the one play. With the easy FG, then if you recover the onside kick, you have all 10 seconds and maybe 2 plays knowing you need a TD.
A FG there was absolutely the correct coaching move.
And mind you, this was the one game I had no wager on today.
But he coached that correctly.
A FG there was absolutely the correct coaching move.
And mind you, this was the one game I had no wager on today.
But he coached that correctly.
what was wrong with it?D2bets said:
lets say you go for the td and miss...game over
lets say you kick the fg and make it...then you get the ball back on an onsides kick. now you have the ball at the 45 with 16 seconds left. are you going to get a touchdown to tie the game with 16 seconds left, with every db playing in the end zone and 55 yards to go? no way in hell
now, lets say you make the t.d. on 4th and 9...now if you get the ball back on an onsides kick you only have to go 25 yards to try a fg to win.
its simple, a lot of crap needed to go right to even have a chance but, if it all goes right, and you have 16 seconds, you want to only need a fg...not a touchdown.
it was the wrong call because of the time left in the game. the down means nothing with 16 seconds left.
if there was 1 minute left in the game, then you kick the f.g.
Yeah, I meant 10. And I still disagree. You're also forgetting that going for the TD ther eats up more clok right there than kicking the FG. So that's at least 3 or 4 more seconds burned right there. Plus, getting a TD on that very play from the 25 is very low %. Calling it 20% is being generous, very generous. The FG is almost a sure thing, call it 85%. The onside kick portion is the same ither way, so ingore that. The difference between needing a TD. OK, well, both would be low %. First of all, the in the FG scenario they would have maybe had 9 seconds instead of 13 seconds in the TD scenario. So they would have had just 1 play to get in FG range. 1 play only. in the TD scenario, they'd have 2, maybe 3 shots at the endzone.
But in any case, the key there is getting into the onside kick situation to give yourself some shot. Going for the TD from the 25 is very low %. If they were within the 5 yard line maybe I'd be with you, but not from the 25 in that situation.
OK, let's say the onside kick was 20%, the FG scenario is a 15% chance and the TD scenario only 5%. Let's parlay what they did...
.85*.2*.05=.0085 vs.
.2*.2*.15=.006
And that's with being generous saying the TD was 20%. Really I should call it more like 10% there.
In any case, I am 100% confident that he made the correct move.
But in any case, the key there is getting into the onside kick situation to give yourself some shot. Going for the TD from the 25 is very low %. If they were within the 5 yard line maybe I'd be with you, but not from the 25 in that situation.
OK, let's say the onside kick was 20%, the FG scenario is a 15% chance and the TD scenario only 5%. Let's parlay what they did...
.85*.2*.05=.0085 vs.
.2*.2*.15=.006
And that's with being generous saying the TD was 20%. Really I should call it more like 10% there.
In any case, I am 100% confident that he made the correct move.
