Mansion Sportsbook: Did these guys have a plan after all?

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Doin' the life thing...
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Guys, this is going to be one of those threads where we are all invited to speculate and where the real value of the discussion will be found in the arguments achieved through rational open discussion.

Mansion Sportsbook... I'll quote whatever bits of information I had on these guys few months ago (09.26.04 in this thread):

I have asked some people about Mansion. Although I cannot vouch for the veracity of the reports on this new sportsbooks, this is what I have heard:

As Bert says, there are rumors about Mansion being an operation set to conquer the American and the European markets. This opeartion would be backed up by a huge ASIAN GIANT, a powerhouse with extremely deep pockets.

If this is true, it makes perfect sense for them to go after:

1. Pinnacle, the top sportsbook in the American market. That would be why they're offering -105.

2. Betfair, the top sports exchange on this side of the planet. That would explain the exchange at no commission

How can they afford to lose money offering lines like the ones they have been offering? I'd speculate that if this rumor is true, MANSION is the anticipated response of the Asian tigers to the Pinnacle and Betfair models, who will eventually move into Asia.

Now, if they want to enter the market and be worthy of consideration by the players, they need to disrupt the existing models that have been proven to make money. That's probably why they're offering a 10 cent line (-105/-105, the juice is not being manipulated yet) and an exchange at 0% of commission.

I believe the -105 and the 0% are simply a marketing move; as soon as they reach critical mass, the 10 cent line will present an asymmetrical straddle, just like Pinnacle... quite possibly, they will even try to offer a way to "middle" Pinnacle.

When it comes to the Sports Exchange, if they already have a huge volume generated by the Asian market, they have an advantage over BetFair, that can't still claim they own the Asian market.

How is this of benefit to the players? For shrewd players that understand numbers, this is an invitation to become active members of this new book and CASH a lot of winning tickets at the early stages of this company.

If this analysis on my part is true, these guys have the vision to brecome really big. However, the only way they can compete is if they really are backed by these Asian giants. I believe they should also look for an EXTREMELY SHARP TEAM OF ODDMAKERS and LINE MANAGERS.

Good luck to those who play with them and let's hope they are not a flight-by-night shop... after all, it would make no sense whatsoever that they set shop in Gibraltar if they are out to scam only.
During the last 3 months, most of the sharp players I have talked to were concerned about the lines Mansion was dealing. They seemed to be soft and pretty much open for pillaging. Not any longer. It seems the guys @ Mansion are now being fed prime time info and they're beating a lot of SHARP guys to the numbers. They seem to be anticipating the moves...

How would that be possible?
  • They have welcomed all the sharp players in the American market. They might have already figured out which of them generate the moves, hence anticipating the steam
  • When it comes to the PL (soccer), we need to remember these guys have access to big action from Asian credit heavyweights HOURS before the European and American markets even open. The line moves in the Premier League are insane.
  • Rumor has it, the main guy behind this operation is not only filthy rotten rich, he's also a HUGE gambler... we know about the offsetting values of a BOOKMAKING-BETTING OUT model...
It looks like these guys had a plan after all... they might have been out to create a following and a niche in an extremely competitive market.

I still think it's to early to lower the guard... specially if you're a post-up player... I think the risk factor is still a very significative part of the formula with these guys...

I know many guys are wondering what to do after NFL... get out? Stay and play buckets? How long can you guys profit at this rate?

I think the proof will be in the pudding... Mansion might be up to a very big 'run in the bank' after Super Bowl Sunday if players decide to test their financial stability and the promptness if their payouts... hopefully, they won't miss a beat.

Good luck, snipers and please stop by and comment... inquiring minds want to know... :103631605
 
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Doin' the life thing...
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BTW, and for those who care to know, their Marketing Dept is run by 2 of the most respected names in that field of the industry. Their website is definitely a well thought-out conversion machine...
 

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The sense I get of it is that most of what you're saying is true...it surely feels like the guys are not from the Judeo-Anglo-Saxon culture of the USA because the approach is totally different. Trouble is I also sense a much lower IQ than the boys at Pinnacle and since that is the most important, they will never be able to outdo them.

The software seems high level and must be very expensive so you know it's not a fly-by-night scam operation. And there is some nut who sometimes likes to plop down $300K on a single NFL game on the exchange, offering an attractive betting opportunity for practically everyone. You can just wait for a middling opportunity with Pinnacle and do a 2x$50K middle if you want. Not very bright of them seeing as Pinnacle tends to well when they are on one side of a middle. Even if I had that kind of money for a middle I wouldn't do it because I wouldn't risk having such big money at a yet unknown book -- especially if I think it's their destiny to lose.

In any case it makes me very interested in Asian bookmakers since they do not seem very sharp yet they handle huge volume. Maybe acw can chime in and share some of his thoughts!?
 

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Jesus walk with posts like that brother why are you wasting your time in a forum..you should be writing books or doing news anchoring for NBC or talk shows for CBS
wink.gif
..good to see ya walk! merry Xmas to you and your familia!:103631605
 

There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &
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I hope you're right, brother; these guys make me happier than that dirty video of me and Dicky's wife.
 

Doin' the life thing...
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Darryl;

I agree with your arguments... I would even go as far as suspecting these guys create these opportunities in the Sports Exchange themselves.

I know 1 thing for sure, bookmaking in Asia is a very profitable, but a very coveted gig. Just to give you an example, I've heard that many of the TOP government officials in Red China are actually the heads on top of the gambling credit structure in the market. Scary thought...

I too agree it'd be interesting to read from ACW, but I'm afraid this thread is not dramatic enough to draw his attention. Thanks for the post, Darryl... always interesting to read from you. Let's hope we get D2Bets, lakerfan, marc, wantitall4moi and the rest of the snipers in here...

Lander;

Brother, I had the feeling you were reaping with a joyful disposition from the Mansion fields...:hump: ... LOL... I'd just keep a low balance if I were you, just in case... won't this be one of those cases where if it comes easy...

Dantez;

I hope you're doing well, bro and I hope you're having a great holiday season with those you love... and thanks a lot for the compliments, I'm working on following your advice :103631605
 

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Walk of Life said:
BTW, and for those who care to know, their Marketing Dept is run by 2 of the most respected names in that field of the industry.
Yes, of course. Never heard that one before. Are they as respected as Scotty and Marty of PanAm fame used to be?

The most respected marketing guys. The deep pocket owners. The soft lines. What could possibly go wrong?
 

Doin' the life thing...
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Kosar;

Hey girl, nice of you to stop by and chime in...:howdy:

You posted:
The most respected marketing guys. The deep pocket owners. The soft lines. What could possibly go wrong?
EVERYTHING could go wrong. EVERYTHING could go south overnight... after all, every sportsbook is only as good as its last payout. But I'm not here to tout them, I'm here asking for players that are winning there to please post their opinion and their experiences... that's all, sweetheart... now take a deep breath and post on...:thumbsup:
 

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Don't they require ID for withdrawal? It's ok if it's only once! I'm not giving ID every payout...forget it.
 

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I decided recently to give these guys a shot. In my short stay so far I have nothing bad to say. Software is clean and easy to use, limits are high, numbers are good, overnight lines. Easy and fast to deposit, but can't speak to withdrawals as I haven't had the pleasure to request yet.

Just figured it was a risk worth taking for now, keeping in mind to keep the balance size in check.

Quite simply there is no other -105 with those kids of limits other than Pinnacle.
 

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If they have the cash they will make it big

That is the only question here
 

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Thanks Dante, always nice to be here.


Walk of Life said:
Kosar;

Hey girl, nice of you to stop by and chime in...:howdy:



EVERYTHING could go wrong. EVERYTHING could go south overnight... after all, every sportsbook is only as good as its last payout. But I'm not here to tout them, I'm here asking for players that are winning there to please post their opinion and their experiences... that's all, sweetheart... now take a deep breath and post on...:thumbsup:
You seem a little on edge, Will. I was hoping that maybe after you extricated yourself from the SBR scam, and your duties there of lying and obsfucating, you might relax a little, but no such luck.

I didn't say anything about you 'being here to tout them.' It was a general comment, similar to the ones I made during the PanAm and PlayASAP hype parades. Your post isn't hyping them, but there's plenty of steam gathering around the forums.

Have a lucky day!
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
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Mansion requires an ID only once. After that you do not have to send again.

Good post Walk.
 

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In some aspects they are still conservative. I know some players were looking forward to betting 1st and 2nd hlvs at reduced juice. After telling players this would be offered it came out at -110.

I think a lot can be read into the changes they make. They came out of the gates aggressive and now have to work with the plan they marketed. No company wants to offer less as they go.

It will be interesting to see if they back peddle, calling many of the perks promotions. Will Neteller remain free? Will we see NBA hlvs at -108? If they do make this move one may assume they are getting the volume and utilizing it as they hoped.

I am not suggesting they should do that as we all know they are not making money yet. However they are discussing the possibility of reduced juice halves after football. After football and futbol wind down it should be interesting to see the next moves.
 

Doin' the life thing...
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D2bets;

I decided recently to give these guys a shot. In my short stay so far I have nothing bad to say. Software is clean and easy to use, limits are high, numbers are good, overnight lines. Easy and fast to deposit, but can't speak to withdrawals as I haven't had the pleasure to request yet.

Just figured it was a risk worth taking for now, keeping in mind to keep the balance size in check.

Quite simply there is no other -105 with those kinds of limits other than Pinnacle.
Thanks for the post, D2bets... I'd love to hear how it goes for you when it's time to withdraw...

WR;

Don't they require ID for withdrawal? It's ok if it's only once! I'm not giving ID every payout...forget it.
I don't know if they require ID for WD, Runner... but that's why this thread will be interesting... hopefully we will get players to post their experiences with the book, so we can all make an educated decision...

kosar;

Dude relax, it was all good all ball bustin'. I have always liked you as a poster, you've always helped me to keep things in perspective. I wasn't aware we were non-friends, I thought razzing each other was only part of forum fun...

BTW, I left SBR, but I do take pride on the things I achieved there, specifically from the professional point of view... at a point in time, I was leading a really good team of hard working people.

So, let's bury the hatchett, sweetie... although one was never wielded...

BTW, you're 100% right... I was just talking to one of the harpest dudes in this industry and one other possibility is that the guys talk a good game and sold an investor on the idea... :icon_conf In which case, this thing is just a mess waiting to happen...
 

Doin' the life thing...
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Bling Doza in da house!!!

Coach:

If they have the cash they will make it big

That is the only question here
I agree Coach, but right now it looks they can't wait to lose money... they seem to think it's fun. They're taking after Pinny, but I think they lack all the things and talent that made Pinnacle the powerhouse they are today.

Billster:

It will be interesting to see if they back peddle, calling many of the perks promotions. Will Neteller remain free? Will we see NBA hlvs at -108? If they do make this move one may assume they are getting the volume and utilizing it as they hoped.
I assume you're having a helluva time playin' buckets there... let us know when it's time to get the bling... LOL

Thanks, General.
 

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Walk of Life said:
kosar;

Dude relax, it was all good all ball bustin'. I have always liked you as a poster, you've always helped me to keep things in perspective. I wasn't aware we were non-friends, I thought razzing each other was only part of forum fun...

BTW, I left SBR, but I do take pride on the things I achieved there, specifically from the professional point of view... at a point in time, I was leading a really good team of hard working people.

So, let's bury the hatchett, sweetie... although one was never wielded...

BTW, you're 100% right... I was just talking to one of the harpest dudes in this industry and one other possibility is that the guys talk a good game and sold an investor on the idea... :icon_conf In which case, this thing is just a mess waiting to happen...

If I was any more relaxed, i'd pass out, man. It's just a little razzin' in the name of forum hijinks.

I'm sure that anything 'professional' that you did at SBR was met with great resistance, or more likely, scorn. Especially if it was in the name of truth, instead of dollars(no offense shrink). And although i'm aware of the other stuff that is/was going on with you personally, i'd like to think that someone such as yourself who seems to have some integrity decided that that 'model' at SBR of lying and spewing non-stop BS in the name of dollars wasn't for you.

It's an out bet that your private comments about them are different than your public ones, which is totally understandable.

Anyways, yes, I would definitely steer clear of this shop. Hopefully it works out, but it seems that many people just like to beat their heads against the wall repeatedly and then bit*h that they have a headache. It's almost comical, in a sad way.
 

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Mansion is Good -- so far!

I have had few problems with Mansion. They did require ID which was a pain (did not require ID when I sent money -- you have heard all the arguments before) but was a one time issue. They did have a problem getting me some NT withdrawals. They said the NT site was down and did not accept the money. Even this event had a somewhat silver lining: after the claimed failure, they put the money back in my account within 10 minutes. How many books do that? If you ask for a withdrawal at most, it is out of your account immediately but then you may get it a few days later. This allowed me to give NT another "shot" which did work the second or third time I tried it. Since this error only held up my money for a hour or two, I tend to accept their story that NT was the problem. We all know when you have problems like this at other books, you money is often held up for weeks (interest free loan to help run the book) -- a few hours was not worth having to answer my emails.

As far as the "idiot" who plunks down $300K in the exchange, this is pretty clearly a book who is laying off its "unmatched" action. If you can lay off action for free, who would not want to make the 10 cents juice with no risk (assuming Mansion is solvent). The reason this "person" does not look too bright is that it is almost always making offers on the big dogs. Remember in this "looking glass" world of a betting exchange, this means it is betting on the fav to cover so it can keep the cash people post up against its offer (probably not too bright given the low juice offered) OR -- and I believe that this is the case -- the book has $300K in unmatched action on a big fav (public always bets too much on favs), so it lays off by offering a good line on the dog in the free exchange. This way no heads roll at the book: if the fav covers, they have a ton on money from "suckers" in the Exchange to help with payouts; if not, they pay out the on the dog but get to keep the juice from its original (public) customer.

All very rational and sophistocated. Also, hopefully the book laying off its action has better information than we do and is sure its money is safe.

All told, I think they are a good outfit but I have encouraged them to open their books to a respected person so he could state that they are not a "fly by night" operation and do have enough cash to weather bad streaks and large payout requests by players. They obviously have not done this so we must keep this book in the "question mark" side of the ledger for now.
 

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I don't want to disrespect an advertiser here with a lot of speculation but something's got to change. I think at times we outsmart ourselves and look too deeply at things, this may be one of them. To be blunt there is no way this place can continue on the way they have, it's not possible.

As far as the talk of the deep pockets and checking to make sure they got money put here and there, why bother? Someone decides they are going to stiff you then there is nothing you can do about it. All the money in China means little when someone has had enough with their latest "toy". Besides I've noticed one common physical affliction that often goes with deep pockets ---> short arms. These guys get frustrated with the business they have two choices no matter how much money they have, take care of everyone at the cost of tons of cash on their way to the airport, or run with all the post up money and face a few angry posts from us internet suckers. Amazing how many times they chose the latter.

Anyway not singling out Mansion, I can't say what their intentions are, hell maybe they are pissing away a load of money just to have some fun. I can tell you what the intentions of the Greek, CRIS, Grande, WSEX and a couple others are, they've passed the longevity test. Tread lightly but once you notice other sharps and wiseguys pushing the book all over the forums that means they are leaving the carcass behind and want their money out, get the hell out of Dodge if it isn't already too late. 'Nuff said.
 

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