Afc Wild Card Tie Breaker?

Does anyone know who the odd team out is if the Jets, Bills and Broncos all end up 10-6? The Jets and Broncos would have a 7-5 conference record and the Bills would be 6-6.
However, ESPN has the Bills in with a Jets loss and a Bills win. I'm guessing the Jets are the odd team out in this scenario because of a different tiebreaking procedure involving three teams. Anyone?

The Bills can clinch playoff berth with:
1) Bills win and Jets loss
OR
2) Bills win and Broncos loss or tie
OR
3) Bills tie and Broncos loss.

NFL tiebreaking procedures


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=10> </TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD noWrap>Nov. 11, 2003
SportsLine.com staff </TD><TD width=10> </TD><TD align=right><SCRIPT language=JavaScript><!--//var dclkFeaturesponsor='http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/sponsorships.spln.com/fs/stories/'+vTag+';'+vTarget+';'+uID+';sz=234x42;tile=5;ord='+random+'?';if (switchDclk != 'off') { if (location.search.substring(1).indexOf('DCLK')>-1) document.write('<input type="text" value="'+dclkFeaturesponsor+'" style="width:">
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=10> </TD><TD>[font=Arial, Helvetica]The six postseason participants from each conference will be seeded as follows:

1. The division champion with the best record.
2. The division champion with the second-best record.
3. The division champion with the third-best record.
4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
5. The Wild Card club with the best record.
6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.
NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM OR AMONG DIVISION WINNERS
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss


When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
2. In comparing division and conference records or records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
3. To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
4. To determine home-field priority for Wild-Card qualifiers, apply division tie breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild-Card tie breakers (if teams are from different divisions).

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR DRAFT
If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:


1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.
2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.

If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.

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Clinching scenarios for Week 17.
AFC East
New England, No. 2 seed, has clinched the AFC East division title and a first-round bye.
N.Y. Jets can clinch an AFC playoff berth with:
a win or tie OR EITHER a Buffalo loss or tie OR a Denver loss or tie
Buffalo can clinch an AFC playoff berth with:
a win and either a N.Y. Jets loss or a Denver loss or tie OR a tie and a Denver loss
AFC North
Pittsburgh, No. 1 seed, has clinched The AFC North division title, a first-round bye and home-field advantage.
Baltimore can clinch an AFC playoff berth with:
a win and a Buffalo loss and a Denver loss and a Jacksonville loss or tie
AFC South
Indianapolis, No. 3 seed, has clinched the AFC South division title.
Jacksonville can clinch an AFC playoff berth with:
a win and a Buffalo loss and a Denver loss
AFC West
San Diego, No. 4 seed, has clinched the AFC West division title.
Denver can clinch an AFC playoff berth with:
a win OR a tie and a Buffalo loss or tie OR a Buffalo loss and a Baltimore loss or tie and a Jacksonville loss or tie


NFC East
Philadelphia, No. 1 seed, has clinched the NFC East division title, a first-round bye and home-field advantage.
NFC North
Green Bay, No. 3 seed, has clinched the NFC North division title.
Minnesota can clinch an NFC playoff berth with:
EITHER a win or tie OR one St. Louis loss or tie OR a Carolina loss or tie
NFC South
Atlanta, No. 2 seed, has clinched the NFC South division title and a first-round bye.
Carolina can clinch an NFC playoff berth with:
EITHER a win and either a Minnesota loss OR a Seattle win or tie OR one St. Louis loss or tie OR a tie and one St. Louis loss or tie
New Orleans can clinch an NFC playoff berth with:
a win and EITHER one St. Louis loss or tie OR a Seattle win or tie and a Minnesota win or tie
NFC West
Seattle has clinched a playoff berth.
Can clinch the NFC West division title with:
a win or tie OR one St. Louis loss or tie
St. Louis the NFC West division title with:
two wins and a Seattle loss
Can clinch a playoff berth with:
two wins and EITHER a Minnesota loss OR the New Orleans-Carolina game ends in a tie

Eliminated from playoff contention:
AFC: Cincinnati (Wk 15), Cleveland (Wk 13), Houston (Wk 16), Kansas City (Wk 16), Miami (Wk 13), Oakland (Wk 14), Tennessee (Wk 14)
NFC: Arizona (Wk 16), Chicago (Wk 16), Dallas (Wk 16), Detroit (Wk 16), N.Y. Giants (Wk 16), San Francisco (Wk 13), Tampa Bay (Wk 16), Washington (Wk 16)

Thanks Wil , but am I missing something or does it explain what happens in a three way tie at 10-6 ? That 3 way wild card tiebreaker is confusing as all hell to me.

Jets, Bills and Broncos


If all 3 win then Buffalo is odd team out. Both Jets and Broncos need only win to make the playoffs. The Bills need some help. Jets would get #5 seed and Broncos "6 seed. which means Denver would visit Indy and the Jets visit San Diego in the Wild Card round.


wil.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3><TD colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD width=20></TD><TD width=20> </TD><TD colSpan=5>Bills need a win and either a N.Y. Jets loss or a Denver loss.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

A Jet win would make them 11-6, guaranteeing them a spot. A loss would make them 10-6. A Bronco and Bills win would create a three way tie at 10-6. Are the Bills still the odd team out based on conference records or does the fact there is a three way tie change things? Anyone?

If Broncos and Bills end up 10-6 then the following tie breakers apply:



1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns

Buffalo would lose by having the worst won-lost percentage within the American Conference between the two - Broncos, Bills:Broncos would end up 7-5 and Bills 6-6 in American conference.


wil.

I understand that the Broncos have the tiebreaker over the Bills based on conference record if they tie at 10-6. Now, throw in a Jets loss and you have a three way tie at 10-6. Are the Bills still the odd team out ? I have yet to find this scenario explained anywhere.

Here's how the playoff situation shakes out for the N.Y. Jets (10-5). The Jets will be the No. 5 seed and travel to San Diego Wild Card weekend if they win or tie at St. Louis, or Buffalo loses or ties against Pittsburgh. If they don't win and Buffalo wins, the Jets will be the No. 6 seed and travel to Indianapolis UNLESS Denver wins against Indianapolis, in which case the Jets are eliminated from the playoffs.

In other word Jets lose and Bills and Broncos win then Jets are out.


wil.

Now that's what I was looking for. Not what I wanted to hear as a Jets fan, but that answers the question. Thanks Wil.

Yes but why would buffalo get the tie breaker over the jets??? If the jets lose then they will finish 10-6 with a afc east record of 3-3 and a afc record of 7-5. Now if buffalo wins they finish 10-6 with a afc east record of 3-3 and afc record of 6-6. How could the jets lose the tiebreaker to the bills they have a better afc record. Please explain that?????:WTF:

to take it further the only 2 oppenents that the 3 teams have played are miami and houston. and jets were 3-0 buffalo 3-0 and denver 1-1 please explain this to me i cant find a tie breaker that the jets would lose.

AK - very sorry for not answering but I am real busy. I will try to get an answer for you:


Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

I think you have to compare all 3 schedules.


wil.

i did and the three teams have only 2 common oppenents and that would be miami and houston and denver lost to houston which the jets and bills did not. and jets and bills swept miami. Interesting huh?

Bills get the nod over the jets if they both finish 10-6 because Buff has the better record vs common opponents.

Buffalo radio explained it this morning.

Buff wins, Jets are out because they break the division tie between Buff and Jets first, eliminate one, and then consider that team vs Denver. That change was made when they went to 4 divisions. Jets must win, IMO, as Buff and Denv play laydowns like Philly tonight.