Forum: Classic Threads From The Past - Visit here for a great "blast from the past" and view some terrific, informative and interesting "Classic Threads" posted by thousands of savvy sportsbettors over the years here at The Rx.com.....

Thread: Lets talk NBA KEY BETTING NUMBERS

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
  1. #1 Lets talk NBA KEY BETTING NUMBERS 
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
    Posts
    75,004
    I get many sportsbettors asking what i think are the key numbers in the NBA.

    IMO, here are my personal list of KEY numbers in the NBA that one should be aware of.............these are my PERSONAL opinions in the exact order of how important i believe they are, at least to me and how i wager. These may vary slightly according to others, but over the years, these are KEY to me.

    TWO

    SEVEN

    THREE/FIVE/SIX


    TWO is very KEY for obvious reasons, a game that features a TWO point favorite in all liklihood be a very close game(national interest games more so), and you will have the tie working for you as well and the game can come down to the very final shot by the favorite.

    SEVEN is a key number because of the 1-2-3 fouling techniques employed by teams trailing in the last few seconds of a game............and thus allowing for many games to fall on the number SEVEN.

    There are some other terriffic threads regarding the key numbers in the NBA here at the RX that is highly recommeded reading.

    My recommendation is if you can buy on/off of the numbers TWO or SEVEN and not pay more than 8 cents to do so, doing so is not a bad move if you cannot find the number elsewhere by shopping. I know many sharpies that will actually pay the full 10 cents to get on/off of the TWO by the way.

    As stated many times on this forum, a simple rule of thumb to employ is that any number under -10 is worth approximently 6.7 cents..............so other than the TWO and the SEVEN, would pay up to that for buying/selling/middling purposes.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #2  
    RX Senior jwunderdog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    Greenwich,England
    Posts
    4,403
    1. Seven
    2. 7
    3. the number 7
    4. #7
    5. the number between 6 and 8.

    In that order.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #3  
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
    Posts
    75,004
    Good read cortesy of Ultimatecapper.com that somewhat supports my theory of the numbers two and seven being the top two KEY numbers in the NBA.

    NBA Key Numbers
    by Jeremy Martin



    There are certain key numbers in professional sports that can cause trouble for Bookmakers. Key numbers are most prevalent in the NFL, where a high percentage of games land on the numbers three and seven. Most people familiar with sports betting recognize these as important numbers concerning NFL wagering. However, many bettors are not aware that there are certain key numbers in the NBA that bookies must contend with on a nightly basis. Two and seven are considered the main key numbers in professional basketball.

    Bookies have, for the most part, ignored NBA key numbers for years. But recently so many games have fallen on or close to these numbers that Bookmakers have begun to take notice. The NBA has some of the biggest line moves of any of the major betting sports, so bookies must be extra careful when they set their numbers. If they move the number too much or make a bad judgment call it could cause them to get 'middled' or 'sided,' which is basically a bookie's worst nightmare (paying out on both sides or paying out on one side and returning money to all other customers).



    Two is probably the most important of all key numbers in the NBA. When a point spread is set on or close to two, there is a high probability that the game will be close. Close games in the NBA are usually decided on the last basket and the winning team normally wins by between one and three points. Bookies must use caution when moving the number in situations like these.

    "We really don't like to bounce back and forth from two to three," said Bob Scucci, Race & Sportsbook manager For The Stardust in Las Vegas. "Two seems to be as solid of a number as you can get in the NBA. When (the game is) as close to a 'pick'em as two is, you are anticipating a very competitive game that could go right down to the wire. That two points and three points is a big difference. You are playing for that last shot that puts it on a two. We try not to move to frequently between 1 ½ and 2 ½."

    "In basketball ones and twos are as close to key numbers as you can get," added Doug Beil, race and sportsbook manager for Terrible's Hotel/Casino in Las Vegas. "If it is a close game and the spread is two points or less, more frequently than just random chance the games are close and they tend to fall. This goes for college (basketball) as well.

    "Lets say one team starts out as a one-point favorite and then the other team goes off as a one-point favorite - which happens a lot in basketball. Or if you start off as a one-point favorite and then you close at two or 2 ½ -- that also happens a lot. So if it is a close game and it happens to fall on one or two, that becomes a key number that can zap you. That's the reality."

    Sevens are so important because that is the point differential (three possessions) in the NBA when the trailing team will, in theory, stop fouling. Many NBA bettors have frustratingly torn up a losing ticket after wagering on a 6 1/2 -point dog in a close game only to see their team lose by seven in the final seconds because of a barrage of late-game fouls. Fouls and the resulting shots from the charity stripe are a big part of the game and must be factored into each and every NBA wager. According to Scucci, more and more games are falling on this key number.

    "I have seen in recent years a lot more games falling on seven than any other number, and that's regardless of the point spread," he said. "I mean I have seen 'pick'em games that fall seven and 10-point spreads that fall on seven. That is starting to become one of those numbers to really start watching for as far as being a key number.

    "It has everything to do with fouls. Two becomes three, becomes four, becomes seven. You know, that whole thing. It's a two-point game in the last minute (of regulation). It is back and forth, anyone's game and suddenly it turns into seven."

    Beil believes that fouling is up in the NBA this year, especially at the end of games. He doesn't necessarily buy into the notion that teams will stop fouling when they are down by seven.

    "I think it depends on how much time there is left," he said. "In the NBA generally speaking teams will foul if they are within 10 or 12 points. And then if they are playing teams with bad foul shooters like a Ben Wallace or Shaquille O'Neal, they will zero in and foul those guys even more. "It seems like (teams will) foul more often and earlier and later in games than years past. Maybe it has to do with how bad the foul shooters are. I've seen teams down by seven or eight with 15 seconds left fouling. It almost seems like there is no end to it unless the game is really out of reach."
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #4  
    RX Junior Number 13's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Blvd. of Broken Dreams
    Posts
    253
    There are key numbers for second half basketball wagers too.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #5  
    RX Junior
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    las vegas
    Posts
    47
    There are no key numbers in NBA basketball. First off when there is at least 170-210 points scored in a game, the points are less valuable as compared to NFL. In NFL there are obvious key numbers, but NBA has none.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #6  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Hollywood, Florida
    Posts
    2,924
    To me 10 is the one of the biggest key numbers because teams usually don't foul if the lead is over 10 and if the team is leading by 10 they will let the clock run out once the time is under 24 seconds.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #7  
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
    Posts
    75,004
    Quote Originally Posted by Giant Douche
    There are no key numbers in NBA basketball. First off when there is at least 170-210 points scored in a game, the points are less valuable as compared to NFL. In NFL there are obvious key numbers, but NBA has none.
    Sorry, but disagree with you 110%, as will the majority.

    They may not be as KEY as certain numbers in the NFL(3 and 7), but they are still key numbers for their sport.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #8  
    International Playa sherman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    CT
    Posts
    10,183
    Quote Originally Posted by Giant Douche
    There are no key numbers in NBA basketball. First off when there is at least 170-210 points scored in a game, the points are less valuable as compared to NFL. In NFL there are obvious key numbers, but NBA has none.
    Giant...I agree with you!
    Fish, U know more about wagering then I do, but I have to disagree here.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #9  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    744
    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead
    As stated many times on this forum, a simple rule of thumb to employ is that any number under -10 is worth approximently 6.7 cents..............so other than the TWO and the SEVEN, would pay up to that for buying/selling/middling purposes.
    You must sell a lot of half points at Pinnacle if you believe this silliness about 6.7 cents per half. Pin will give you 8 or 9 cents to take a half point the worst of it off most numbers.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #10  
    RX Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    423
    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead
    Good read cortesy of Ultimatecapper.com that somewhat supports my theory of the numbers two and seven being the top two KEY numbers in the NBA.
    You posted Jeremy Martin's story fourteen minutes after your first post in the thread. I am sure he appreciates YOUR THEORY and used it for his column.
    Last edited by Frankie5angels; 01-06-2005 at 01:46 PM.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #11  
    RX SemiGod
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    14,321
    Quote Originally Posted by neilm
    You must sell a lot of half points at Pinnacle if you believe this silliness about 6.7 cents per half. Pin will give you 8 or 9 cents to take a half point the worst of it off most numbers.
    neil, so I take it that you're saying that most half points are worth a bunch more than 6.7 cents?

    I would have gone with between 7.5 and 8 cents for the typical half point (under 10, excluding 1), with a little higher for the 7 and 2, which I agree are "key", with '7' being the most key of the key.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #12  
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
    Posts
    75,004
    Quote Originally Posted by neilm
    You must sell a lot of half points at Pinnacle if you believe this silliness about 6.7 cents per half. Pin will give you 8 or 9 cents to take a half point the worst of it off most numbers.
    Neilm- What i am saying is that i personally never pay OVER 7 cents for a half point as it is not worth it IMO..............except on TWO and SEVEN when i will pay slightly more.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #13  
    RX SemiGod
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    14,321
    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead
    Neilm- What i am saying is that i personally never pay OVER 7 cents for a half point as it is not worth it IMO..............except on TWO and SEVEN when i will pay slightly more.
    Fish, are you saying you won't "pay that" if playing a middle/side, or are you salso saying you won't pay that if you are betting the game.

    So, would you bet +5.5+100 instead of +6-108?

    I may be off on this, but if I'm middling/siding I'll take the +5.5+100 but if I'm betting I'll take the +6-108 in this instance.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #14  
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
    Posts
    75,004
    Quote Originally Posted by D2bets
    neil, so I take it that you're saying that most half points are worth a bunch more than 6.7 cents?

    I would have gone with between 7.5 and 8 cents for the typical half point (under 10, excluding 1), with a little higher for the 7 and 2, which I agree are "key", with '7' being the most key of the key.
    THANK YOU.......EXACTLY!

    Neilm, sorry if you thought i meant a half is only worth 6.7 cents, understand the confusion. Again, meant that i personally have that has my cut-off point for the amount i want to pay.

    D2bets, as usual, is precisely on the money as far as im concerned.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #15  
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
    Posts
    75,004
    Quote Originally Posted by D2bets
    Fish, are you saying you won't "pay that" if playing a middle/side, or are you salso saying you won't pay that if you are betting the game.

    So, would you bet +5.5+100 instead of +6-108?
    Very very close according to my statistics.

    If given the choice, would take the +5.5 EV over the +6 -108, using my 7 cent rule of thumb..................except on 2 and 7.

    But your scenario is obviously VERY VERY VERY close, as you know.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #16  
    RX SemiGod
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    newark
    Posts
    10,366
    No such things as key numbers when an average of a team total is like 93 or so and game totals are 195 or so as compared to Foots where team totals are 38 or so

    Common boys you smarter than this

    Tip #501

    The Coach
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #17  
    RX SemiGod
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    14,321
    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold
    No such things as key numbers when an average of a team total is like 93 or so and game totals are 195 or so as compared to Foots where team totals are 38 or so

    Common boys you smarter than this

    Tip #501

    The Coach
    Coach, maybe that's why you're barrelled in while we've got the books over the proverbial barrell.

    With the exception of the NFL '3', and just barely the '7', an NBA game is more likely to push the number than an NFL game is. Consider that.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  18. #18  
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
    Posts
    75,004
    JJgold and Sherman---respectfully disagree with you 110%!

    Let me ask you both a question.

    If given the oppurtunity, would you rather lay -115 on a game as to -114 or -113 if given the oppurtunity?

    If you say it really doesnt matter to you, than to you there are no KEY numbers in the NBA.

    Yes, KEY numbers in the NFL are much much more to be concerned with than key numbers in the NBA................but to say there are no KEY numbers in the NBA is just flat out wrong, sorry.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  19. #19  
    RX SemiGod
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    newark
    Posts
    10,366
    I do not beleive in key numbers in nba, too many quick last minute point swings which most of the time have no meaning on the game whatsoever as opposed to NFL.

    There are no key numbers in the nba
    Reply With Quote  
     

  20. #20  
    International Playa sherman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    CT
    Posts
    10,183
    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead
    JJgold and Sherman---respectfully disagree with you 110%!

    Let me ask you both a question.

    If given the oppurtunity, would you rather lay -115 on a game as to -114 or -113 if given the oppurtunity?

    If you say it really doesnt matter to you, than to you there are no KEY numbers in the NBA.

    Yes, KEY numbers in the NFL are much much more to be concerned with than key numbers in the NBA................but to say there are no KEY numbers in the NBA is just flat out wrong, sorry.
    well sure i woud rather lay less but what does that mean in this discussion?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  21. #21  
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
    Posts
    75,004
    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold
    I do not beleive in key numbers in nba, too many quick last minute point swings which most of the time have no meaning on the game whatsoever as opposed to NFL.

    There are no key numbers in the nba
    JJ- I know you are being sarcastic.

    Know damn well you know there are key numbers to be concerned with in the NBA.

    Quit playing possum.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  22. #22  
    RX Local Fishhead's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 1999
    Posts
    75,004
    Quote Originally Posted by sherman
    well sure i woud rather lay less but what does that mean in this discussion?
    Would you rather take +7 -110 on an NBA game or +6.5 -103?

    Would yor rather take +14 -110 on an NBA game or +13.5 -103?


    If certain numbers in the NBA are NOT as key as others as you say, both of your answers should contain the same vig............for your sake, hope you do not pick the same vig.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  23. #23  
    RX SemiGod
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    newark
    Posts
    10,366
    +6.5 -103 every time
    Reply With Quote  
     

  24. #24  
    RX Senior
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    costa rica
    Posts
    1,713
    Fishead, I agree with you 100%. so many games fall 7 its unreal. how can anybody in their right mind dissagree with you. Iwas just arguing with someone the other day about the #4 he told me 2 is the strongest and then 4. I told him good luck to you if you think 4 is strong in the NBA.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  25. #25  
    RX Senior jwunderdog's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    Greenwich,England
    Posts
    4,403
    JJ

    Do you know how often 7 hits when the line is 6.5 or 7?
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •