This is the round owned by the home teams, the ones that had a week off while their opponent had to expend energy beating another playoff team. Taking a top flight rested team against one that had to emotionally get up for a game in the prior week just seems to make good sense to me every year. Each of the last few years I followed a simple formula:
Round one: bet all dogs plus the points
Round two: bet all home teams and lay the points
Round three: bet dogs on the money line
Super Bowl: look for good props, avoid the side/total
No reason to change this year. Last few years this method has been super lucrative, but I admit it can't work forever. I just like how it takes advantage of the public's bad tendencies. Round one everyone is fired up, willing to lay chalk even though most teams are flawed. Round two public got to see the road teams in the past week, a few might have been impressive and lowered the number. No substitute though for that invaluable week off. Round three the public is back with a vengeance on the favorites, but with parity as it is they overrate the favorite. Super Bowl there are better opportunities than the overbet line and total, so go easy and play a few non correlated props and enjoy the game.
Round one: bet all dogs plus the points
Round two: bet all home teams and lay the points
Round three: bet dogs on the money line
Super Bowl: look for good props, avoid the side/total
No reason to change this year. Last few years this method has been super lucrative, but I admit it can't work forever. I just like how it takes advantage of the public's bad tendencies. Round one everyone is fired up, willing to lay chalk even though most teams are flawed. Round two public got to see the road teams in the past week, a few might have been impressive and lowered the number. No substitute though for that invaluable week off. Round three the public is back with a vengeance on the favorites, but with parity as it is they overrate the favorite. Super Bowl there are better opportunities than the overbet line and total, so go easy and play a few non correlated props and enjoy the game.
WildBill is correct on the 1st and 2nd Rounds, as that blind-approach in NFL Playoff play has worked well for ages, but there is usually always still at least one "live dog" in play, if not two for the 2nd Rnd, especially of late.
The past 5 years has seen some dogs have more bark farther into the playoffs, than in previous eras where that formula was so concrete it wasn't even funny.
Round 3 differentiates from year to year, and in most years the public is the side to follow on SuperBowls, especially if they nibble on the dog..with many wiseguys often throwing back earlier round winnings via an Super Sunday BM-rebate.
The past 5 years has seen some dogs have more bark farther into the playoffs, than in previous eras where that formula was so concrete it wasn't even funny.
Round 3 differentiates from year to year, and in most years the public is the side to follow on SuperBowls, especially if they nibble on the dog..with many wiseguys often throwing back earlier round winnings via an Super Sunday BM-rebate.
