Was this a crazy bet?

Piranha · Jan 10, 2005

Wild card Sunday between Indy/Den I was undecided in which way to go. Originally I liked Den plus the points but seeing no home team or favorites had won yet I was scare to play Den. So instead I played Indy on the ML @ -550. Laying 5500 to win 1000.

I was so sure Indy would win but is this a crazy bet to lay that much? If you don't think so I may do it again later in the playoffs if I go undecided again.

UWinSports · Jan 10, 2005

I would never bet 1/5 unless it was horse racing going a mile and a quarter for 2yo's in a 12 horse field.

assassin · Jan 10, 2005

any bet is a good one as long as it has a positive EV regardless of the line

t3a · Jan 10, 2005

YES THAT WAS CRAZY - in many ways

easy to say AFTER the game but you could have played 1K on Indy and saved the other 4 for games you actually had an opinion on. Key was you said you were undecided, but then you dumped 5K on it.

Go look at one of Ace-Ace NFL threads that talks about 'points that matter' too - if you ended up leaning Indy, just play them minus the points and take your shot. Even if you lost, you still have 4K to come back with

t3a · Jan 10, 2005

AnthonyRichkas said:
I would never bet 1/5 unless it was horse racing going a mile and a quarter for 2yo's in a 12 horse field.

How many Secretariat's are there though?

Piranha · Jan 10, 2005

That's my point T3fa I was undecided in which team will covered but not in which team will win. That is why I did not want to play with the points because I liked Den at first but started to change my mind.

I was very confident with Indy winning but to lay such a big sum to win so little was the only thing I question myself. I knew Indy would win but would they cover. I did not want to throw 1 dime out there to see if that will happen since I sided with Den at first.

t3a · Jan 10, 2005

well your play did win so like someone said that makes it a good bet.. but I still wouldn't want to lay 1 to 5 on NFL I have seen too many teams that 'can't win' jump up and do it.

I know some bridgejumpers at the racetrack who make a living doing that (at least they claim to make a living doing it)

jjgold · Jan 11, 2005

You had balls making that bet but nice going. I think though in long run 1/5 bets are a loser, there will always be big chalks that go down and to catch up is very difficult. If you made 10 bets like this all year I doubt you would go 10-0 and more like 10-2 in which you would surive but 10-3 or worse you get burried.

No way for me