Money Management Theory???? (Long)

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Hi Guys,
Great site. I've been lurking for a while and I've finally gotten up the nerve to ask a newbie question reagarding money management. I just finished reading JR Miller's book-How Professional Gambler's Beat the the Pro Football Pointspread and he has an interesting theory on money management. Basically he advocates betting 1% of your bankroll on each play (flat betting) until your bankroll either increases or decreases by 50%. So if you started with $5000.00, you would bet $50 (Lay $55 to win $50) on every play and when you reached $7,500, a 50% increase, you would adjust your bet size to $75 (1%) and so on. He stresses never changing your bet size until your bankroll either increases or decreases by 50%. (Again 1% of that new figure). The thing I found interesting was that he stressed volume in making plays in order to produce a nice profit. He states he makes about 1500-1800 plays a year. Assume you start with $5000 and you make 1500 plays (Avg. of about 4 a night) at 1% ($50). Suppose you can hit 55%, you would have 825 winners x $50=$41,250. You have 675 losers x $55=$37,125. So $41,250-$37,125=+$4,125 and that doesn't take into account the resizing of your bet if your bankroll increases by 50%. If you bet with reduced juice, say -105, obviously you would need a lower winning percentage to show a decent profit. What I am asking is, does this seem like a viable approach? I know Miller's picks that he tries to sell are horrendous, I'm just asking about the MM Theory. Is it feasible to hit 53% to 55% over say 1500-1800 plays? I know some advocate the Kelly Criterion to maximize profits but isn't betting 1% of your bankroll safe when one doesn't exactly know his edge on every play?
I'm not a math guru so I wanted to run this by you guys for comments.
Thanks
 

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"Is it feasible to hit 53% to 55% over say 1500-1800 plays"

Vig will wear you down long term

Hey Welcome aboard Son and don't be shy and post your thoughts here
 

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I dont know about betting 1% thats a bit low I do basicly the same thing but at 2.5%
 

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The idea is to have a plan within your budget and STICK to it -- that means NO chasing (doubling up) when you hit a rough patch.

PS - you could have saved the price of vig on that book and just asked the seasoned vets down here (Fish, WildBild, OldManTed, Krackman, etc ..)
 

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These ideas seem to be generally sound. Certainly it's much better to bet $50 on a $5000 bankroll than to make $200 bets. I'm not sure whether you will find 4 or 5 plays a day on average.

Also you might consider resizing your bets after a 20% change in bankroll to either $4000 or $6000 rather than use the 50% figure, but these are finer details than the general idea of only betting a small 1% fraction of bankroll.
 

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