I Am Amazed When The Bookies Get It So Close and Right

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ODU GURU
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Washington was favored by 1 tonight over Milwaukee with the Total at 203-204 and with 22 seconds left in the Game, it is 103 -100 Washington...

Wow....
 
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Shrink yesterday I get a call from OF (hes doing fine) to play over on Utah-Sac its 197.A few hours later he calls to get off it becouse of Bibby being out.He gets 200 for us it lands on 200.

At halftime it opens pick up to Sac -1 1/2 in some places.Total opens at Oly at 100 QUICKLY goes to 104.Lands on SAC 52 UTAH 51.TRULY AMAZING.

Bottom line you have to SHOP SHOP SHOP if you want to be sucessfull.When I read some popular ex-bookie football handicapper say "just bet the game, 3,3 1/2 ,4 it doesnt matter" I laugh so hard I think Im going to crap in my pants.
Remember newbies always always,shop for the best ########-GREENHEAD-
 

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case in point tonight, orlando VS detroit was 6.5 most of the day, it hit 7 at some places.. detroit wins by 7
 

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Noreaga said:
case in point tonight, orlando VS detroit was 6.5 most of the day, it hit 7 at some places.. detroit wins by 7
Actually middled the game, taking +7.5 early in the day............sweet outcome to say the least.
 

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Fishhead said:
Actually middled the game, taking +7.5 early in the day............sweet outcome to say the least.

Fish do you middle all NBA 7 if you can or think you can get it later even at full juice -110 both sides? or was this a special circumstance? thanks...nice one
 

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Shouldn't be amazed at all, a certain number are going to land right around the spread.:smoker2:
 

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THE SHRINK said:
Washington was favored by 1 tonight over Milwaukee with the Total at 203-204 and with 22 seconds left in the Game, it is 103 -100 Washington...

Wow....
All through college we used to say the same exact thing. It's scary how close they always seem to come.
 

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trytrytry said:
Fish do you middle all NBA 7 if you can or think you can get it later even at full juice -110 both sides? or was this a special circumstance? thanks...nice one
NO, my personal cut-off point is a total of not more than 17 cents risked on both sides combined for the number 7 to make it worth my time..............thus as an example, would lay -6.5 -107 and take +7.5 -110 in the NBA, this would represent my personal maximum outlay on the number seven.

APPROXIMENTLY no more than 14 cents on most all other numbers under -10 as a GENERAL rule of thumb(6.8 cents per half point) without getting into specifics.
 

ODU GURU
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Pancho,

I am indeed amazied when BOTH the side and the TOTAL hit right at the spread...

It doesn't happen that often...

THE SHRINK
 

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When the books/linemakers make about 1000 or more lines a week they SHOULD have a few they are close on shouldn't they? They are "close" within 3 points in hoops maybe 5% of the time. And even that might be high. I wouls also bet that that gane finished mre than 3 points off the number when all was said and done. With fouls and possessions there might have been 10 more points scored in that game with 22 seconds left.
 

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But they are also way off much of the time also. I think we only remember the games they hit close to. If some of us here did this every day with sooooo many games, we would also hit several of them right on......
 

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By the way, dont find it the least bit scary how close oddsmakers come to certain games, never have.

Many reasons why not.....

1. Oddsmakers first and foremost are not setting lines as a predictor of the final score.............they are trying to draw even action from the bettors.

2. There are obviously a tremendous high percentage of games that dont come close to the spread, only the ones that fall close on do people bring this point up on.

3. There are many sporting events where, quite frankly, most anybody remotely into the world of sportsbetting with half a brain could set a line near or exactly as those by the so called expert oddsmakers.

For these and a other reasons, when a game falls on or close to a number, i think very little of the oddsmakers who set that particular line.
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
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Some NBA Referees have a BIG job in determining outcomes ATS in NBA. Take that to the bank.
 

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The Salami bet in the NFL last week was 201 the overs came home with 203 and needed 122 points on sunday to cover. it was the same in hockey only baskets seem to move away. anyhow thats there business right?:party:
 

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