How To Bury The Bookies This Weekend In The Nfl....

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HOW TO BURY YOUR BOOKMAKER THIS WEEKEND IN THE NFL....

written January 17, 2005 by THE SHRINK


The NUMBER 3 has been talked about a lot, especially when it comes to betting NFL football games. What the bookmaker fears the most, whether offshore or in Las Vegas, is when a Football game lands on a closing number of 3.

The chances of this happening varies on certain conditions. As a general rule, the lower the TOTAL on an NFL game, the GREATER is the likelihood that the game lands on that dreaded 3.

In this day and age, gamblers are much more sophisticated and they tend to shop around the Internet for the best price when gambling on a team.

Next Sunday's match up between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers already has the potential to be a nightmare for bookies and a haven for gamblers, IF they know how to play this.

This line originally opened around 2, but currently, gamblers are laying 2 1/2 when betting the Patriots, and taking back plus 3 when wagering on the Steelers. Looking at the point spreads for this game can make one dizzy because so many bookies are afraid to get off of their original position, whether it be 2 1/2 or 3. Instead, many offshore establishments will vary the "juice" before bouncing back and forth off of the 3.

Who can blame them? If I owned one of these places, I'd be doing the exact same thing and here's why.

The importance of the number 3 in the NFL cannot be emphasized enough. Since the advent of the 2 point conversion, Football teams will often pass up on going for the extra point when leading or trailing in order to get to 3, because they consider 2 and 4 to be "dead" numbers.

For those of you who don't understand numbers as well as others, a "dead" number is one which is considered "worthless."

The game between Pittsburgh and New England also has a low Total (37), and how ironic too, because that particular number is considered the most important one when betting "totals." I will save talking about this for another day.

Now that we have established the significance of the number 3, let's talk about "middling." Although it is my personal belief that in most cases, it is mathematically wrong to try and middle Football games, all bets are off when the number 3 is involved and here is why.

For this weekend's match up between New England and Pittsburgh, there are gamblers who will be attempting to cash in BIG IF the Patriots win by exactly 3, which has approximately a 14% chance of happening, according to most number experts I have spoken to.

Now given the above percentage, many gamblers want to know the total amount of juice that they can LAY to have an ADVANTAGE over the bookmaker this weekend.

It is my contention that a bettor can lay 2 1/2 minus $1.20 on The Patriots and take back plus 3 1/2 at minus $1.20 on the Steelers and still have a significant advantage over the bookmaker.

Let's explain why more clearly.

If one were to wager one hundred dollars on the above two scenarios, the most that the gambler would be risking is a total of 20 dollars in Juice IF the number 3 doesn't fall.

However, the reward coming back IF the number 3 lands would be a dead hit middle, so the bettor gets paid from both bookies making it a total of $200.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist with numbers to realize in this case that risking 20 to make 200 is 1 out of 10 or 9:1 against you if you prefer this method of calculating.

Since I already told you that the chances of an NFL game landing on 3 in this particular situation is roughly 14%, making it 1 out of 7 or 6:1, depending on how you prefer to label it.

Therefore, since the gambler is only risking 10% to make 14% if the game lands 3, he holds a 4% ADVANTAGE over the sports book in this case.

And anytime one can capture this big of an edge over the house, it is correct to play it for as much as is humanly possible. These cases just don't happen very often.

THE SHRINK
 

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Fine and dandy, but where in the WORLD are you EVER going to find +3.5 -120?
 

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Fishhead said:
Fine and dandy, but where in the WORLD are you EVER going to find +3.5 -120?
SIA near gametime----possibly Intertops or Bowmans on the square line too......
 

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2.5 and 3.5 are sweet numbers. I think most of us miss the juice free Fridays at aces and gameday. That was like a candy store opening saying "come in and get free candy on Fridays"

I think Shrink was talking about a hypothetical situation. Because it is almost impossible to do this today unless you are part of a syndicate. I mean, who knows which way an NFL playoff game with millions on each side is going to move?
 

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I would say it is a lot closer to 10% than 14% even with the Pats who seemingly win every game by 3 points. So there goes the advantage right there IMO.


Also having a lower posted total has absolutely no bearing on how likely a game that is lined at 3 will land on 3.
I have posted these results over and over and over and over... again.

I will make one smal concession here though. The Patriots do have a tendancy to play in a lot of close games. But laying -120 both ways is still a coin flip.

Besides I doubt you will find +3.5 for -120 anywhere. You can get the -2.5 for -107 now, take a lead and hope you can buy it back later in the week for -120 or maybe (doubtful) less. THEN it would probably be worth taking the shot, that is a 13 cent spread. But that is still only about a 2.5% advantage to the bettor over the original theory of -120 both ways. But it gets you a lot closer to making money over a series of bets.

That is the thing with the 'mathematical' plays. To make them work or have 'value' you have to play them each and every time without fail. Once you start picking and chosing then you lose the inherant 'value' you would expect to see due to the past results that you use to attain this so called 'value' anyways.
 

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Want it- Are you saying that the chances for the final score to land on 3 are the same for a total of 37 then it is 57?
 

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Pretty much yes.


Totals have no bearing from what I have found. The -3 line to me is the most over hyped and overrated thing in sports gambling. Worrying about it is carzy.

I would much rather lay -3 with the pats right now at +119 or whatever you can find, than to buy them down to -2.5 and have to lay -107. That is 26 cents more for something that only has one shot of happening. And if that "worst' case scenario does happen, I still DO NOT LOSE. I get my money back. So I don't win, bg whoop, it is one bet. I don't lose either.
If I am betting every day, that one non win will be swallowed up very very quickly.

I am not going to get into the usual arguments over this like we always do.
This is all theory and speculation. We can all throw out our opinions and 'mathematical' evidence. But the fact is that every time a game is lined 3 and does or doesn't hit, it effects all those so called mathematical results. It is an ever changing thing when it comes to this. You can have parameters for sure. Within 8-12% would be the most valid. But that in no way makes something have 'value' or not unless it is so far out of whack that it wouldn't matter WHAT the perameters were.
 

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Give or take fractions of a percentage point, the average time a -3 point fav lands on 3 in the NFL is roughly 10%.

Although this is a playoff game AND a relatively low total in 37, my personal opinion is that the chance of a game landing on the number 3 in this scenario is not as high as 14% as some may think.

My personal opinion is that it is CLOSER to 12% than 14%.
 

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I will shoot out this years results from what I have MYSELF. I am sure there will be many variable results depending on when and where you found your number. But I had 41 games that closed at -3 for this year. Of those 41 only 3 had the fave winning by exactly 3 points. And in all those games there was another number available. The first one was NE/Indy in week one. That game was all over the board, and not until right before game time did NE get to -3. The second was SD/Den Dec 5th. SD closed -3, but they were -2.5 for a short time early in the week. The thrid game was just a couple weeks ago with Car and Atl. That was a Sat game and that number was all over the place as well. I saw 4s around but Car was geting bet as they were on that streak sio it finally closed at -3.

I am sure there are some games that some might find, but I try to use a static source when I do this, that way it is constant. If I didn't, then I could just as easilly say there were ZRO pushes this year on games lined -3. Plus I could probably say there were over 50 games lined that way rather than the 41 I do use.

Depending on your source and your timing reslults will vary greatly. That is why is is generally crazy talk to try and figure out a mathmatical advantage over something 99% of us on here could find dozens of differing LINES for, let alone results.
 

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Shrink,

With all due respect, you are making a huge mistake here:

For this weekend's match up between New England and Pittsburgh, there are gamblers who will be attempting to cash in BIG IF the Patriots win by exactly 3, which has approximately a 14% chance of happening, according to most number experts I have spoken to.
The 14% figure is typical for the probability that EITHER team wins by 3. For a SINGLE team (the favorite) it's usually around 8%-8.5%, and in a an extreme case ie. with a low total AND an expectation of about 3 it could be as high as 9.5%-10%. But to suggest it is 14% is simply absurd. Please reconsider and correct this error for your words carry a lot of weight and could make many people do stupid things.
 

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Wantitallformoi and I had a similar totals/RL relationship discussion way back when (at Covers) relating to baseball. His contention (and wantitall, correct me if I am wrong) was that games with lower totals (i.e. 7 or 8) were no more likely to be 1-run games than higher totaled games (i.e. 10 or 11).

He was just flat out wrong, but continued to insist he was right. For a normally sharp guy, he is sometimes very very wrong (imo of course).

As to this issue however, I agree with him that it's more like 10 or 11%, not 14%.
 

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The total is down to 36. noway its no 10% or 11%. its definetely between 12.5% and 14%. if the total keeps dropping the % is alot higher.
 

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as the week goes by, players are going to forget about the pats big win this weekend, justify it by the poor weather, and end up bringing the game closer to a pick. NO CHANCE this line remains at the 15-1 team AT HOME GIVING 3 points. no chance. therefore, what all should do is play pitt now, and then play the pats at a pick'em or -1..... that way you are assured a better shot at a middle.
 

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Since 1994, my database had 231 games lined at +/-3 with totals more than 37.5 These games pushed 23 times, or 10%.

On games lined under 37.5, there were 82 instances with 12 pushes, or 14.6%. I'll buy TheShrink's push percentage, but good luck getting Pit+3x -120. In fact, good luck getting Pit+3 -120.
 

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D2, yeah I said it in bases too. I have seen a lot of results and a lot of lines. I don't think the total in bases makes it any better. I do know that the RLs are juiced up more in lower totaled games. So the books at least think it makes a difference. But then again, like I have said, they are offering lines on every single game, so as long as they can increase their hold on each and every game they will do much better in the long run. Especially in bases where they habitually lose money.


I have never found much of a correlation between the totlas in any sport with the actual results ACCORDING TO THE LINE.

That is the factor. BOTH, the line AND the total are MAN MADE, or computer generated. Either way they are made outside the game itself. However something else makes them, and people can't even always agree on that, has very little to do with predicting an outcome of a game, and a lot more to do with trying to get money both ways. Especially in these unique game situations, where there is a lot more focus on them.

They can afford to gamble here and there in a 12 or 14 game weekend, but they surely cannot do it when there are only 2 or 4 games. Why do you think that Indy/NE line moved like it did? Granted it was across some dead numbers, but NE was -3 at some rogue places, and people probably could have turned around and bought them up to +3 yesterday. As it turns out doing that was a losing propsotion, but one many people would take. But a lot of people were betting on Indy. So they moved the line. They weren't taking any stands, they weren't hoping NE would win, they moved the number hoping some people would buy NE at a nice dog price. The ML yesterday told that tale. NE never got to a decent ML price. So the books shut that valve off. The basically forced you to take the points, as the money line in comparison had little or no value.

But that is the risk when it comes to spread. And why the spread based stuff is so difficult to manipulate, unless you get the right odds. Line are meaning less for the most part. To get a middle or a side, we have to pray that the line is even close to begin with, and 95% of the time it isn't even close. Then you have to have that perfect scenario when you have a shot.

Ik now a lot of guy try to middle or side games. I am also sure they can tell you stroyies of a flag or a missed first down that ended up costing them a great shot at it. So it isn't just the score, it is seemingly every play late in the game. Or even during the game. To hit a 1 point middle is miraculous. Even if it is on a 3. Basically you need a tie score and your team to have the ball late in the game. Or you need the perfect score and one team to hold the other team off, because invariably they will try for that insurance score, THEN you are rooting for the other team. But they obviously do not go for a FG to ose by 3, they go for the TD and the win, so that is a now win situation as well.

NO, to hit a one point middle is a miracle, and if you tried it every time the line was 3 you would eventually go broke.
 

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Suspect I may have reduced my odds but just bet n.e. -2.5 40-36 pitt +3.5 44-34. looks like i have $8.00 risk to win $70.00 Did I screw up the percentages? best I could find. semisquare :;))
 

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Daringly- Since 1994 I had 306 total games closing at 3 (you had 313, so close) I had 32 pushes, (you had 35, so close again, but still 3 pushes more in only 7 more results)

I can't factor 37.5, I have to factor 37. But I had 11 pushes in 100 games that closed -3 with a total of under 37. That is 11% That leaves 206 games that were lined at over 37 . Of those obviously 21 pushed. That is 9.7%. For me that is a 1.3% differential between a game with a high total versus a game with a low total. If we get one more push in the next 10 games it would be almost even, so no correlation in my numbers.

Where we differ is in the under 37 area. I have one less push, but also have 18 more games. So what is seemingly a small difference, that can most definately be atributed to source, can make it look like some mathmatical windfall.

Because in all other areas we are in pretty close agreement.
 

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Want, I skimmed some of it but just to be clear you are saying the total on the game has no bearing on the spread? Not only football but any of the sports? So to you a 1/2 run in bases is worth the same in Colorado with a total of 14 as it is in a Pedro/Schilling match-up and the total is set at 7? Edit - never mind, carry on.....
 
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