The value of 1/2 point

Kobe08 · Jan 18, 2005

I've been doing a little research and have figured that nba games push about 3.9% of the time (when spreads don't have a 1/2 of course). There are obviously some numbers that push more relatively than others like 7, but on average its 3.9%.

That means if you could get a half point on 100 wagers of 1k you could turn 4 losing bets into push bets. Each time instead of losing 1k you would retain your 1k thus saving about 4 dimes or 3.9% of your investment over 100 wagers.

Getting -105 juice will save you about $2165 if you are a 50% bettor and $2381 if you are a 55% bettor. With these numbers if 2165 /3900=x then 5 (juice)/x= effective value of half a point
If you are a 50% bettor 1/2 point is worth about 8.9 units, meaning you are effectively betting at -101.1, if you are a 55% bettor its about 8.2 units, or -101.8.

So buying a 1/2 point for -10 extra would almost never make sense.

Discuss.

Kobe08 · Jan 18, 2005

47 views no replies... :icon_conf

Groucho · Jan 18, 2005

I don't have a ton of time to reply right at this second but I'll say something and try to remember to come back later.

On the surface, that looks like some great analysis to me. I would be interested to know more about your research methodology.

I have made that point in other capping forums - that the books sell those points for a little more than they're worth. It seems like the most natural thing in the world to me - like, OF COURSE!! - but some people will react like you've insulted their mother's virtue.

Good post.

Fezzik · Jan 18, 2005

You buy when the chance of a game landing on a number is 4.5% or higher.

That means basic strategy says "never buy" in baskets.

Advanced betting strategy calls for 1 adjustment, buying on/off 7 in the NBA as some have argued that subset (and it is the only one) hits at the 4.5% needed. It's too close to call, no big deal either way.

Not to be a Phil Helmuth here, but I really hope some joker doesn't come in behind me and say "it never makes sense to buy". Rather, it very rarely makes sense. For example, NFL teams favored by 7 "hit" on the number at over 4.5% so given you are about to fire in a bet, it almost always makes sense to buy here (as Shrink mentions in his article, the lower the total the more sense it makes).

Note, Shrink wrote that a -2.5, +3.5, both at -120 middle wins on NE/Pit.

Less obvious is that a -2.5, +3 bet both at -110 middle must by inspection therefore also win, but your expected win is only 1/2 as great).

assassin · Jan 18, 2005

Hi Def TV $3900

Hi Speed cable Access $39.95

Free 1/2 point at Skybook , Priceless (at least I hope so tonight)

Kobe08 · Jan 18, 2005

I got my 3.9% on a 7 year NBA sample, 1998 Jan 10- 2005 Jan 10. I went apeshit the first time I got my number, but like others before me, I included the times when the underdog team won by the same margin as the point spread, so if you hear a substantially higher number they probably made that mistake.

Skybook's 1/2 point seems to be the best offer on the market right now for a nickel bettor. I'll take that over Pinnacle's reduced juice, over MegaSB -104, only Mansion seems to come close as they don't play around with their vig.

MyBookie offers a 1/2 point on one day of the week but they have extremely low limits. Royal goes to -104 on Friday. And there are others that I don't remember offhand.

Do you guys know of any other books that have one day a week were they lay 104 or less on nba or ncaa bball games, or they go 1/2 point down for the day?

PatrickMcIrish · Jan 18, 2005

Can't go wrong with the free 1/2 from Skybook, take it every time, LOL. Speaking of the NBA we could be steaming towards a nice night on totals, 3 games in and two left to go.......

WEEKENDALKI · Jan 19, 2005

I agree with Patrick in the sense that getting the free half is huge. If you play it in the right spots on key numbers, anyone who thinks it is inconsequential is naiive putting it mildly. Every professional gambler i know buys in hoops on the key numbers. Hence, the free half must be worthwhile. Reduced juice is huge, but in the key spots, a free half may be even better. Bottom line, try to get everything you can. If you can add a free half shop to your portfolio, do it. If you can add 2 or 3 free half shops, even better. Having reduced juice shops is also huge. People who underestimate this stuff need to delve into a new hobby. gL to all. :103631605