It is bettor to receive: Steelers, Falcons welcome the points

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It is bettor to receive: Steelers, Falcons welcome the points
By I.M. Bettor/ By the Numbers
Friday, January 21, 2005

Once upon a Bob Martin, and long before the computer age and Internet wagering, the linesmaker, who happened to be Bob Martin, put out a number and stuck to it. In most cases, the number was somewhat formulaic, meaning that in games where the teams were viewed as equals, the home team was sacked with a 3-point impost.

I've written on more than one occasion that an NFL team is neither as good nor as bad as it looked in its last game. That's why the linesmaker usually doesn't overreact to what happened on the previous weekend. The key word here is usually, because this week the people who set the lines for the AFC title tilt really put some weight into what took place in Round 2 of the playoffs.



Taking both a look back and a reality check, the Steelers were very fortunate to win, playing mediocre at best, but nevertheless running their mark to 9-0 at home. On the next day, the Patriots [stats, news] dominated the Colts and their second-half performance may have been the closest to a perfect half of football that this longtime observer of the game has ever seen. Bingo. When the numbers came out, despite never having lost at home this season, the Steelers were installed as 2-point underdogs, and faster than you can say, ``Remember, Corey Dillon didn't play in the first meeting,'' the Sons of Krafty Bob went to 3-point favorites.

The first time these two met, the Dillon-less Hometown Heroes were 3-point favorites. They're spotting 3 again with Dillon. Do the math and if this game were to played in Foxboro, taking the 3 points spotted to the home team for simply being home, just from a numerical standpoint, Foxboro's finest would be a 9-point favorite. Shiver me timbers, but this would be ridiculous - but ridiculous is as ridiculous does when it's down to the final four in the NFL.

The truth is, Ben Roethlisberger has one bad game and the Jets score on two big plays, neither of which was generated by their offense, and all-of-a-sudden, the line swings 6 points. When it comes to picking on or against the Patriots, I am truly jinxed. On this, the fifth anniversary of Captain Jack Farrell's death, I know the Captain would tell me, ``I.M., you're right. Anyone who lays 3 with the visitor is laying a very bad number.'' There's only one logical way to bet this game Sunday and that's take the Steelers. But because I am so gunshy and snakebitten, I'm only betting $165 on the Steelers at +3.
 

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Ya missed a little

Heading into our 20th week of playing by the numbers, the angry acolytes are stuck $160 in the hole from a mark of 18-18-2. In addition to the baby bet on the Steelers, let's play Atlanta taking 5 points for $275 so that we can entertain thoughts of jerk chicken and Red Stripes on Negril.

By I.M. Bettor/ By the Numbers
Friday, January 21, 2005
 

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IM Bettor used to post at Wagerline in the forum over there.


But he has been doing that column for years. I remember reading him when I lived back east. He ususally had positive years from what I remember. But haven't read the Herald in 5 years or so. BUt he has been around doing that column since the very early 90's. So better than a decade.
 

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