THE DUE FACTOR & REVENGE GAMES

THE SHRINK · Jan 23, 2005

I have read several times lately where someone has brought up the DUE factor and its relationship to gambling on sports...

In my opinion, both the DUE FACTOR and REVENGE games are two of the most OVERRATED angles used in handicapping and if used alone, they will land you in the POOR HOUSE a lot quicker than what you may think...

Just as you hopefully play for streaks when visiting Vegas or AC, you should be doing the exact same thing when betting Sports as a rule and NOT trying to predict when a team is DUE for a LOSS or due to lose a REVENGE game...

This kind of reminds me of the guy who will pick tails after heads has come up 10 times in a row and he can't understand how he lost...

THE SHRINK

JimFiestSux · Jan 23, 2005

True Mr. Shrink. Many people thought that when Manning played last week, hes due to win in NE. And many are saying Philly is due to win a Championship game. UNTIL they do my money is on Atlanta. Atlanta has the theory in their head that Philly can't win the big one and guess what, I THINK THEY ARE CORRECT!

Fishhead · Jan 23, 2005

Very true, and in fact it is my belief that wagering AGAINST the DUE factor and REVENGE factor will actually be a much more profitable proposition for the sportsbettor.

Much like going WITH a team who losses a STAR player due to injury in the first couple games without that player..............but thats an entirely different debate/fact for another time.

Good point Shrink, and one that every amatuer sportsbettor should take notice of.

Thanks

Dante · Jan 23, 2005

I agree but one can not help but imagine alot of the LUCK theory went into last weeks Steeler win over the jets with 2 botched FG's....

Fishhead · Jan 23, 2005

Dante said:
I agree but one can not help but imagine alot of the LUCK theory went into last weeks Steeler win over the jets with 2 botched FG's....

:think2:

Do you have the latest tea prices in China?

Thanks,

FISHHEAD
Securities Exchange

THE SHRINK · Jan 23, 2005

I happen to have them Fishhead...

I hope you don't think they are DUE to go down, as Dante does!!! :smoker2:

FatTony · Jan 23, 2005

The "Due" Factor pretty much ruined my life.

About 12 years ago, the Texas Rangers won about 16 games in a row.

Famous last words: "There's no way that team can keep wininning!!!"

Those words were muttered after they won 7 games.

BlackBart · Jan 23, 2005

Back during Doc Gooden's rookie year, I bet against him every start and got creamed. "There's no way this kid can keep this up."

FatTony · Jan 23, 2005

Black Bart said:
Back during Doc Gooden's rookie year, I bet against him every start and got creamed. "There's no way this kid can keep this up."

Yep. It is the worst thing you could do in gambling.

"Ride the wave, don't swim against it."

Fishhead · Jan 23, 2005

THE SHRINK said:
I happen to have them Fishhead...

I hope you don't think they are DUE to go down, as Dante does!!! :smoker2:

No opinion, as my expertise is in grain futures and pork bellies...............not tea.

wantitall4moi · Jan 23, 2005

One comment only...

The Steelers were lucky? The Jets didn't score an offensive TD in that game. Basically the Steelers spotted them 14 points and still won.

The two missed FGs (one set up by ANOTHER Steeler turnover) are only highlighted because the game was close at the end.

I would say the Jets were LUCKY for even scoring in that game at all.

OK so I lied a second comment...

It is also just as foolish to bet on Atl here simply because Phi has yet to win a Chanpionship game. Just like it was foolish a couple years ago to bet Phi against TB because the temp was below 40 degrees at the start of the game. That 'trend' 'stat' or whatever you want to call it was something like 21-0, well it buried a lot of people that day.

Each and every game has to be looked at independantly, period end of sentance. Basically you pick a side, bet it, close your eyes and hope they win.
There were some angles in these games that would have offered some value, but pretty much those required betting early and buying back late. The vig in the NE/Pitt game on the 3, and the total in the Phi/Atl game most obvious.

JimFiestSux · Jan 23, 2005

Dante,

Remember the 2 missed field goals. EVERYTHING HAPPENS FOR A REASON!!

Fishhead · Jan 23, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
One comment only...

............ it was foolish a couple years ago to bet Phi against TB because the temp was below 40 degrees at the start of the game. That 'trend' 'stat' or whatever you want to call it was something like 21-0, well it buried a lot of people that day.

What about when the same treand was 16-0 and punters who were aware of this trend went 5-0 before finally losing.

True, to gain a true edge in trends, it is best to find a trend that very few know about before the masses find out.

I DEFINETLY feel certain trends are worth noting.

Rainbow · Jan 23, 2005

Due bets are the worst bets for anybody, as for as revenge games I like them alot, as long as you dont bet every revenge game. revenge games in the last two weeks in the NBA has been great I have bet revenge games all my life I will never stop betting them. the key for betting revenge games is never bet on a revenge game that the team you are betting is playing bad. I dont bet revenge games in baseball.

wantitall4moi · Jan 23, 2005

Fish- The thing about that stat/trned was it was SU. So unless the bettors were betting huge lines (because undoubtedly the Bucs were big dogs) they wouldn't have gone 6-0.

i cannot argue the specifics because I do not know. But Iam sure that they at least covered some spreads in that run. Not to mention that up until that year, the Bucs had always sucked, so they were losing most of their games, not just the ones that started with temps below 40 degrees.

On another side note. This type of thinking is utilized by almost everyone in baseball. Never bet against a win streak, never bet on a team that hasn't wn in awhile, no matter who the pitcher is. Two vry solid points, and ones that many many people use as their second or third criteria (after who is starting and what the ML is) as their basis for a bet...

BlackBart · Jan 23, 2005

Used to be one of these "Vegas insider" type guys that would show up on the radio in Charlotte on Fridays to give his opinions on games--and shill his services. (I wish I could remember his name--I think he followed Sandy Penner to Tampa before I moved back here. His big tagline was "they got the WRONG team favored here, I'll take (whoever) straight up") Anyway, he had another piece of advice that rings true: "If you bet with a streak, you can win a lot of money and only lose once. If you bet against a streak, you can lose a lot times and only win once."

Woody0 · Jan 23, 2005

Weren't the Red Sox due to win the World Series?

:howdy:

jjgold · Jan 23, 2005

I do very well with Due bets as long as team that is due is a strong team and not a real bad team as real bad teams can lose forever

THE DUE FACTOR & REVENGE GAMES

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