Those of you backing the Pats and Over

GreenDoberman

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• Jan 24, 2005

• #1

Look real careful at Philly's defensive stats and the scores for their games this year.

Throw out the last two weeks against StL and Cincy (when they basically rested up for the playoffs).

They have given up virtually nothing against everyone they play.

Of course, they are going up against possibly one of the best offensive coordinators in NFL history and a proven big-game QB, but just some food for thought.
:nono5:

 

sherman

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• #2

just got in on the pats before the line moves up....

 

D2bets

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• #3

Including the playoffs, but discounting the last two games when the Eagles mailed it in, they allowed 14.125ppg this season. That's just over 14 points total per game!

The Eagles have the better defense here.

Take a look back at the last 5 Super Bowls, or more, and tell me the last time the better defense lost the game.

Philly and the under. 20-16 Iggles win

 

sportsbet

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• #4

It's nice to have some voices talking about how great their defense has been other than my own.

GD and D2 are 2 of the sharpest guys in this place. It might be wise to heed their advice.

sb

 

jjgold

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• #5

Pats will get struggle of their lives against Phila

 

GreenDoberman

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• #6

Thanks SB, I'm looking at this completely unbiased.

Look at it this was, the Eagles have given up MORE THAN 20 points only 3 times all season.

Once, against PIT in a game that got out of hand.
Once, versus DAL where they were up early and basically mailed in a 2nd half.
The other in a shootout against Cleve.

They have 3 Pro Bowlers in the secondary.

I just would be VERY leery of a NE-over public parlay.:nono5:

 

blueedwards

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• #7

greeney, what you are saying makes sense but...name the last time a superbowl game went under. it never seems to happen.

and, if the last time was 3 years ago or something, the last 10 has to be like 8-2 overs.

 

MrGoodDr

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• #8

Both teams can score. Ref's seem to "turn em lose" and let em play in the Super Bowl. Be hard NOT to be Over in this match up. JMO

 

GreenDoberman

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• #9

Philly is not exactly an offensive juggernaut, especially so with a missing or ?able TO. The only big point performances they put up were against defenses with very suspect secondaries (see GB, CLE) .

NE can win in a shootout, I don't see Philly winning without a def. performance.

Blue, look at the 3 SB's before the last 2. Total points of like 37,39,41.

The TB-OAK game was somewhat of an abberation with so many defensive scores.

I agree the SB generally is high scoring and partly a product of a long game with so many commercials. I also think it has been factored into the line and the public is jumping blindly on the over.

Blue, aren't you on the WSOP Rx Team? If not, you should be. I hear your a demon at the tables.

 

sportsbet

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• #10

That's what bugs me so much with this number guys. I mean you look at 48 and having watched the birds religiously for so long I would say "there is NO WAY these two teams will put up 48 points with these two defenses" BUT I seem to always remember when a number looks too obvious (like I think the under looks here) it usually spells doom for common sense.

sb

 

PanchoSanza

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• #11

Tough to bet against NE, they're a covering machine. (I had Pitt yesterday:nono5: )

Look at it this way, they lost 2 games all year and in both games , Brady basically played terrible.

So bottom line you have to hope he lays an egg in the Super bowl.

If he plays his game, NE wins at an astonishing rate and by extension, covers at a very high clip.

 

GreenDoberman

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• #12

SB,
Total opened at 46, moved up to 48. Seems like everyone but you and me think the over is obvious. I LOVE being on the other side of the public.
The ONLY reason they give as to the over is "the Super Bowl ALWAYS goes over". That seems pretty insignificant to me.