in college hoops if a team is favored by 1 1/2 what % of the time do they win by 1?

in college hoops if a team is favored by 1 1/2 what % of the time do they win by 1?

anyone have stats on this?


Same question for NBA.



not asking what fraction of games end as a one point win, only looking for fraction of games that end with the slight favorite winning by one point.


Can you ever show on paper that a - 1 1/2 -105 on the favorite and a +120 Money line on the underdog is a long term money maker? (it is a polish middle but does it show a positive ROI?). Thanks.

trytrytry:



I don't have the data you are looking for, but I believe that the number 1 in the nba is worth 5 cents. Therefore if you were given a free half point laying 1.5 in every NBA game that you would win 50%, lose 45% and push 5%. So from that data you can surmise that the favorite will win straight up 55% of the time and the dog will win 45% of the time. That would make the true odds of the favorite wining, in moneyline terms of course, -122.22222222.



So if you were to take the favorite -1.5 (-105) over the course of 100 games, you would win 50 units and lose 52.5 units for a net of -2.5 units.


If you were to take the ml dog pk (+120) over the same couse of 100 games, you would win 54 units {45 x 1.2} and you would lose 55 units for a net of -1 unit.




It's not a profitable situation by my calculations but my data could be wrong. I have no idea for the numbers on CBB but I'm fairly confident with this data for the NBA.




Hope this helps some
Hitman

I think it is a long term winner but most hate getting beat by the long shot. In NBA a line hitting 1 on a 1 line is very low under 3% maybe even under 2%. I know some guys have the database to back it here. I haven't looked at your exact question but from what I have seen at -110, a 1 to 2.5 middle is almost break even maybe squeeze a small profit.1 being the weakest of all #s 1-14.

In college, my database says that a 1 1/2 point favorite has won by exactly 1 in 5 of 128 games played. This is for the last two college b-ball seasons.

In the pros, over the last five years, with the same criteria, it happened 4 out of 99 games. So it appears that in college, as well as the pros, this is a 1 in 25 occurrence.

simpelton thanks for that simple data! very helpful