can someone figure this out ?

WorldNumberOne · Jan 28, 2005

you start with a bankroll of $ 5000.00 .

you hit 58 % of your picks.

you bet 5 % of your bankroll on each pick .

how much do you have after 1500 picks ? at - 110 juice .

thanks.

sportsbet · Jan 28, 2005

That is tough to figure if you are adjusting your wager to your current bankroll because you don't know in what order you hit 58 percent (could have 10 wins or 20 losses in a row somewhere). For simplicity's sake:

1500 * .58 = 870 Wins
870 * $227.27 = $197724.90 Won Money
1500-870 = 630 Losses
630 * $250 = $157500 Lost Money

197724.90 - 157500 = $40224.90 (Profit)

Also assuming you're risking $250 (5 percent of 5k) per game.

sb

WorldNumberOne · Jan 28, 2005

i wanted the adjustment figured in. 5 % plays growing with the bankroll.

i guess i throw in a known factor of never losing more than 6 in a row.

got to be a math wiz out there can figure this out

DarrylParsons · Jan 28, 2005

WNO,

All a math whiz can do I'm afraid is prove that there is no unique answer because it still depends on the order of the wins/losses.

But if you want to know the expected BR you could use the following recursion formula:

E(0) = 5,000
E(1) = E(0) + .58*E(0)*.05 - .42*E(0)*.05*1.1
.
.
E

= E(n-1) + .58*E(n-1)*.05 - .42*E(n-1)*.05*1.1

which can easily be plugged into an excel worksheet and copied down to line 1500 which gives:

E(1500) = 33,777,493

That assumes your 5% bet is 5.5 units to win 5, and not 5 units to win 4.545 units.

Hope that helped :>Grin>