I don't usually play middles....

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on the shelf
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If I see some legitimate 6.5's with decent limits, I may have to take a large shot.

S U P E R B O W L
 

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Won't you also need to find some decent +7.5's, or do you already have that locked in?
 

Pump n Dump
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Im guessing the vig on at least on of your sides is going to be steep, and make it not worth attempting, but I wish you luck in your search.
 

Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
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VirChis:



Your middle is worth it. The 7 in the NFL is worth roughly 12c if you get a half. You are paying 17c while you should be paying at least 24c.





You have a profitable situation by my calculations
 

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Yeah, if i work it out correctly you are risking 17 units to win 200.


Ie nearly a 12/1 shot, or +1176 to be exact that the patriots win the game by exactly 7.

So you guys think that this will occur more than 8% of the time??
 

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virchis said:
Yeah, if i work it out correctly you are risking 17 units to win 200.


Ie nearly a 12/1 shot, or +1176 to be exact that the patriots win the game by exactly 7.

So you guys think that this will occur more than 8% of the time??

No, -6.5-112/+7.5-105 is twice that good. My back-of-the-envelope calcs show that it pays 23.65-1. This is definitely a very good play. And the lines you got on each side are about the best available now. Good luck.
 

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Oh of course, because you don't lose 17 units if it doesn't land on 7. You lose either 5 or 12 units.


How do you balance it correctly so that you lose the same if it doesn't hit.

Is there a way to do this?
 

Rx God
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I'd expect SIA to hit +7.5 +100, last i looked +7 +100. Limit a dime.
 

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You could play...

1120 to win 1000 on -6.5 -112
1086 to win 1034 on +7.5 -105

Thereby risking 86 to win 2034 that it will land 7 (23.65:1)

Provided 7 lands more frequently than 4.06% of the time you will have a +ve expectation combination of bets
 

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virchis said:
Oh of course, because you don't lose 17 units if it doesn't land on 7. You lose either 5 or 12 units.


How do you balance it correctly so that you lose the same if it doesn't hit.

Is there a way to do this?

Yes, there is. I just divide the dollars returned on one side by the fractional odds on the other. For example:

1120 to win 1000 at -112, would be roughly 2120/1.952=1086 and change
1086 to win 1034 at -105

Lose roughly 86 either way or win 2034 if it hits. 2034/86 = 23.65:1

Looks like neilm beat me to it...same example too. :shocked:
 

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Thanks guys for the explenations.


Does sound very appealing. Looks like i might be hitting the maximum bets for some of these prices.
 

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Just seems like there is a better way to do this, let me know if i am wrong.


Instead of buying the half point on -7 for the 10 cents do this.

Bet -7 -102
and +7.5 -105

Bet 1020 to win 1000 -102
and bet 1035 to win 986 -105

Then it seems like you are risking 35 units to win 986.

Which seems even better than previous calculations.

Is this right?
 

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virchis said:
Just seems like there is a better way to do this, let me know if i am wrong.


Instead of buying the half point on -7 for the 10 cents do this.

Bet -7 -102
and +7.5 -105

Bet 1020 to win 1000 -102
and bet 1035 to win 986 -105

Then it seems like you are risking 35 units to win 986.

Which seems even better than previous calculations.

Is this right?

Yes, but this is interesting, and now we're going to get into advanced middling. Yes, that example is better odds. The question is going be whether you are going to be bumping against the max at the books you're playing at or the most you're willing to put into play. I still think the 7 is worth moe than 10 cents so the buy is good, but if you can simply bet double on your second example, then go ahead and do that. Either way is fine, depends on your tastes, the maximums, your bankroll, etc.
 

Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
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virchis said:
Just seems like there is a better way to do this, let me know if i am wrong.


Instead of buying the half point on -7 for the 10 cents do this.

Bet -7 -102
and +7.5 -105

Bet 1020 to win 1000 -102
and bet 1035 to win 986 -105

Then it seems like you are risking 35 units to win 986.

Which seems even better than previous calculations.

Is this right?





When the line is 7 on a NFL game, it lands on 7 about 6% of the time. Therefore buying a half a point at 10c is a good deal. Strictly in mathematical terms you are better laying 6.5 -112 than 7 -102.




Goodluck whatever you decide
 

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