Was a nice shot for Spurs tonight..would people have taken it?

wantitall4moi · Jan 31, 2005

Spurs opened -4 -110 last night. A lot of money has gone on them driving them to -6.5 -106. That means you can get Sea +6.5 for -104. So 14 cents for two sides and a couple middles.

Since everyone likes to argue about betting steam lines and thelike, who thinks it would make sense to buy back a game that has moved this much/

I think it is a no brainer for a buy back myself.

Rainbow · Jan 31, 2005

The reason for the line moving so much. no Allen he"s large. I would wait you might be able to take 7. if you see it starting to go down then I would take it.

Hitman26 · Jan 31, 2005

Wanti:

Not a good deal. If the true line were 5 or 5.5 it would be a great deal. But right now it looks like the true line is 6.5. In theory if the true line is 6.5 then you are giving back some of your edge from your original bet. In your example (just sticking with SAS -4 st8 bet) say SAS were to win the first half by 14. Sea would be a about a 3 or 4 point favorite for the second half, now should I bet on Sea for the second half becasue I would have a 6 point middle for 20c? I don't think so.

That's my thinking wanti

wantitall4moi · Jan 31, 2005

Hitman- I figured that would be some people's take. Also thought Allen's status was known last night. Sea is stil a good team, and Spurs are the class, but in the regular season a road fave is a tough call especially with two top teams, with or without an injury. So to me -4 seemed like it made sense. the 6.5 seems like they are begging for Sea money.

So it is one of those things. the buy back now is OK. Obviously waiting until the second half is an option, ut a bird in the hand it better than two in the bush. If Sea has a lead at the half then all bets are off, especially if it is a decent sized lead. the you would be forced to take SA for minus points again.

Hitman26 · Jan 31, 2005

Wanti:

Here is my take on all middling situations. I have to use an exaggerated example to get my point across but here it goes anyway. Lets say I like Phili +7 in the superbowl, and I put 1 unit on it tonight. Then tomorrow Brady, Dillion, Vrabel, Mcginnest, Bruschei, Branch, Troy Brown, Vinetarri and Bellecheck all die in a car accident on their way to Hooters. The new line for the Superbowl is Phili -17.5. Now what should I do? In theory I could go for a 24.5 middle for -110. Now would that be a wise decision? Hell no it wouldn't. It's the exact same concept with your SAS bet tonight (but on a much smaller scale). However lets say that the line is 17.5 everywhere, but some square shop has it 21. Now I would go for it in a heart beat. It's always been my belief that if you can muster a positive expectation on both sides of a bet, then it's worth it always. If you can only get it on one side of the bet, then stick with that side unless there are extraordinary circumstances (scalping or an overwhelming % of your bankroll is on that side).

Why give back any edge when you have it?