What to do?

wantitall4moi · Feb 2, 2005

You have Rutgers +123 on the ML. Then within 30 minutes they are bet off the board to +107 ML .

Now you can get St John's -1 -109 or ML -117 (8 cents to avoid the push)

Do you stay with the original and look to be on the "right" side at the right time. Or do you buy back St John's -1 or even lay the extra 8 cents and have a 6 cent scalp. Or do you wait and see if more Rutgers money comes in giving you a +100 or better on St Johns?

The is more or less a rhetorical question. But interested to see how people wold appraoch this game/situation. I do not think there is a "wrong" answer here either among the choices I list. I think it is more or less a personal choice.

So since we have been on the middling/arbitraging/value theme the past week, thought this one was a perfect example.

Rainbow · Feb 2, 2005

I would keep the bet. for sure I wouldnt bet St John -1 if anything I would bet ST John on the moneyline -117. but I would just stick to my original bet.

Dante · Feb 2, 2005

paging FISHHEAD...paging MR FISHHEAD ...your expertise are requested in this thread

Rainbow · Feb 2, 2005

2nd thought I wouldnt bet the moneyline on St John for sure. the more I think it if anything you have to lay the 1 on ST John, but thats no good either. I would keep the bet.

TheGeneral+ · Feb 2, 2005

If you are a scalper, then you are in a position to do what you like to do. If you are a flat bettor, then you either gamble you were right or buy back and eat the vig. If ony a 1 unit play, I'd likely sit still.

VaultedTreehouse · Feb 2, 2005

That's a peanut scalp. Too small.

Fishhead · Feb 2, 2005

Dante said:
paging FISHHEAD...paging MR FISHHEAD ...your expertise are requested in this thread

LOL!

If you wuold see a couple of middles working for me today, you would see that I am far from an expert today.

Bad day in the office thus far.

WANT- interesting question and one that is very difficult to answer if one is not really in tune with how the line has been moving and having no general feeling on the game.

I would suspect you DO have both........a feel for this line and an opinion.

Having said that, you are best answering your own question obviously.

I will say this, depending on your tolerance for risk, you are better laying the -1 with StJohns longterm and getting the extra 8 cents on your scalp imo..........but barely.

Having said that, and I was STRICTLY going for a scalp, I would probably take the PK line and wrap up a 6 cent scalp.

In the past in this type of situation, I have bought back like say 75% on the Pk line and risked the other 25% at the -1 and get thus getting a little of the extra 8 cents on the scalp.

Good question.........and one that I am always intriged to hear answers to.

Thanks,
---FISH---

jjgold · Feb 2, 2005

If you want to win long term you take St Johns

If your a gambler like most of us you take Rutgers

Fishhead · Feb 2, 2005

jjgold said:
If you want to win long term you take St Johns

If your a gambler like most of us you take Rutgers

Posters- Please disregard this post, as it makes little........no wait, NO SENSE.

wantitall4moi · Feb 2, 2005

LOL

These are the answers I suspected.

Because in terms of 'value' they are all just about the same.

I do have a strong opinion on this game, and it is definately Rutgers. BUT I also thought I would get the scalp here. I figured it would be very small, maybe where it is now. I just didn't expect it to get to that level so quickly. Basically once they took the limits off this line was +118, and then with 5 minutes of that it was +107.

So I am at the crossroads of is the 6 cents worth the opinion? Not really to me. Is the 14 cents, yes, i think that is, but that 1 point is a number that can and will bite you inthe ass. It is one that is deceptiely common.

But I did make a more than standard size wager on this game, so I will definately buy some back at some point. So I do have some lee way. But I have to watch and wait and hope I get the numbers I want. Butbecause I like the side I have now, my tolerance is much higher than it would be normally.

And that is the dilemna even the most stoic guys sometimes have. I will scalp a 3 cent line to make 10 bux. But the gambler in me does come in from time to time, especially when I think I have the "right" side at the right price, and especially in NCAA hoops.

But then again using my own argument, if you take the gamble out of gambling you will be further ahead. But in this situation I think the risk is probably worth the reward.

The thing is that if I get St Johns ML -107, and buy back an insurance play. The it is almost a lose lose situation. If St John's wins I don't make any money, I just lose less. And if Rutgers ends up wnning I have "wasted" money by betting St Johns.

This is defiantely where the psychology of gambling comes into play. Even for an advantage player/grinder like me.

jjgold · Feb 2, 2005

it is 12:55 Fisher and your probably drunk

scalps and middles are the only proven winners long term so if you take John's it fits into the theory

Now if you bet one side and take Rutgers eventually you will lose long term

Real easy and clear

Fisher stay off the whisky

wantitall4moi · Feb 2, 2005

Well, an excellent finish considering the post I made about it. St John's does in fact end up winning by the one point.

Like I said, I knew that one point would be an ass biter. It was. It never got to the "right" number and having the opinion outwieghed the "intelligence" of taking what you can get when you can get it.

Was it a bad beat? Maybe, maybe not. In the eye of the beholder I guess. Some guys might have sided this game. But even in siding it they had to have Rutgers +3 first probably, whch was in fact the "correct side".

I unfortunatey started out with the "wrong" wager the ML. Right side, wrong play.

Also exaclty why I do what I do and grind it out.

But I take my shots once in awhile, especially in NCAA basketball, this just happen to be a game where the result was "perfect" to be a case study in the options we have, and how SOMETIMES, the options are that close.

X-Files · Feb 2, 2005

Scalp...why gamble unless you have money to burn
or know you will win in the long run?

wantitall4moi · Feb 2, 2005

Rutgers invented a new way to lose when they lost that game...

They have a 3 point lead. SJU misses a shot they have the ball, they have a turnover, then they commit a foul with almost n time on the shot clock. But they are still up 52-51 with the ball and 25 secnds. They have ANOTHER turnover, and SJU gets a lay up. 6 seconds left they jack up a 3 pointer, with a one point deficit? One for the ages for sure.

But you are right I know better. Finishes like that are EXACTLY the reason why scalping is the only "safe" play. Hard to say there was a "fix" because St Johns didn't cover anyways. So just sloppy play is all.

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