All depends on how the bets come in.I am sure the future pools are making it a lot easier for them to stay on 7 rather than moving to 7.5. I just cannot see them opening themselves up for everyone that got those goofy opening numbers, 5 is obviously s adead number, but 6 isn't all that dead, and combine it with a 7 when you see 7.5 for little or no extra vig, and it isn't hard to take a shot.
The NFC took quite a move there the last couple days. Even at a low limit it seemed to be pretty one sided on the NFC the way that thing dropped. So there you also have the guys that might have bought the AFC late in that prop, now they have NE -4.5 in a prop, and again 5 is a dead number, but with a 7.5 itis still 3 numbers to middle. Probaby less than 1% difference beteen that 4.5 in the prop, and the 5 that some books opened up at. but the psychology is there. And if the guys buy back and get "lucky" when it hits 6 then it makes a big difference.
I am not so convinced that so many people love New England here. Not difficult for people to make a case for Philly, and people do love the dogs in the Superbowl despite what some people want to believe.
So unless we can see what the balance sheets look like it is hard to say.
I also have to think that books have been swapping plays off and balancing each others action all week between themselves. I mean how hard is it for them to do it, they have two weeks to run the numbers.
The NFC took quite a move there the last couple days. Even at a low limit it seemed to be pretty one sided on the NFC the way that thing dropped. So there you also have the guys that might have bought the AFC late in that prop, now they have NE -4.5 in a prop, and again 5 is a dead number, but with a 7.5 itis still 3 numbers to middle. Probaby less than 1% difference beteen that 4.5 in the prop, and the 5 that some books opened up at. but the psychology is there. And if the guys buy back and get "lucky" when it hits 6 then it makes a big difference.
I am not so convinced that so many people love New England here. Not difficult for people to make a case for Philly, and people do love the dogs in the Superbowl despite what some people want to believe.
So unless we can see what the balance sheets look like it is hard to say.
I also have to think that books have been swapping plays off and balancing each others action all week between themselves. I mean how hard is it for them to do it, they have two weeks to run the numbers.
7.5 with heavy juice... Hell, you could get 8 at 5Dimes if you're willing to pay the juice. 7.5 at regular -110 odds is what people are talking about.
Would it not stand to reason that since heavy underdog money comes in late that the line is more likely to hit 6.5 right before kickoff when all of the heavy underdog bettors who are waiting to see if *maybe* those Pats bettors will bet it to 7.5 finally lay their money down?
The way I see it is, heavy "whale" money is all that moves the Super Bowl line... Nearly all of the heavy whale money betting the favorite would have come in when New England opened at -6.5 (which is why it moved to 7). The heavy whale money betting the underdog would come in right before kickoff.
So IMO, there's no big money left to move the line from 7 -> 7.5, as the big favorite bettors already got in at -6.5. There is however money left to move the line from 7 back to 6.5, as the big underdog bettors haven't laid their money yet.
So to sum it all up, I think if it moves off of 7, it moves to 6.5 right before kickoff.
I think it will stay at 7...too many people in town have NE in futures and are waiting to edge back at 7'..I am one of them and do not think I will see other than 7 here in Vegas...if I thought it would go down I would have edged off today. Played total under 48- at Suncoast when I spotted it while playing the horses. It went back to 48 in about 30 minutes...Ne has been very good to me but I think Philly will hang within the number..both Philly DE's are tough..just ask Vick and with their secondary/blitz's I fear them.
Pam
Pam
Before I answer this question I want to wait and see the line movement Saturday after the squares get paid on Friday....If you made me guess I would say 7.5. I have no problem telling you I laid $ for the hook down -5.5, that covers the late missed 2 point attempt and the semi-dead six number.
