http://drf.com/football/2004/analysis_dt.html
By Dave Tuley (DRF)
Here are some of my prop plays for Sunday's Super Bowl. Please note that lines are subject to change, especially with the heavy volume this weekend. First player to score TD: I'm going with the "field" at 5-1. This one takes some shopping around as some books went ahead and listed Terrell Owens on their list of individual players while others left him off, yet most put the field at 5-1. There's value with Owens in the field.
Will either team score 3 straight times: I'll take the "no" at +180 offered at the Stratosphere. This goes along with feeling the game will be relatively close and low-scoring.
Largest lead of the game: Ditto. I'll take the under 13 1/2 at +170 at MGM Mirage.
Double result: This is definitely one of those "long-term positive expectation" wagers. The past two years, I've lost this bet - which links the first-half winner to the game winner - which is available at most larger casinos. The option I like is taking the "tie/Patriots" at 10-1 and the "tie/Eagles at 14-1." Basically, I'm cheering for a halftime tie, which would guarantee a winning bet. Sure, I lost a bet and cut my odds in half, but either 5-1 or 7-1 on my combined wagers will more than make up for my previous losses on this prop.
Will there be a score in the last 3 minutes of the fourth quarter: I'll take the "no" at +105 offered at MGM Mirage, though most others have it at minus-money (and still others word it at the "last 2 minutes"). I can see the Pats running out the clock for a victory and worrying more about pouring Gatorade on Bill Belichick and their departing coordinators instead of tacking on another score. Plus, this can be seen as a hedge bet if the Eagles are needing a backdoor score to cover my larger wager on the +7.
By Dave Tuley (DRF)
Here are some of my prop plays for Sunday's Super Bowl. Please note that lines are subject to change, especially with the heavy volume this weekend. First player to score TD: I'm going with the "field" at 5-1. This one takes some shopping around as some books went ahead and listed Terrell Owens on their list of individual players while others left him off, yet most put the field at 5-1. There's value with Owens in the field.
Will either team score 3 straight times: I'll take the "no" at +180 offered at the Stratosphere. This goes along with feeling the game will be relatively close and low-scoring.
Largest lead of the game: Ditto. I'll take the under 13 1/2 at +170 at MGM Mirage.
Double result: This is definitely one of those "long-term positive expectation" wagers. The past two years, I've lost this bet - which links the first-half winner to the game winner - which is available at most larger casinos. The option I like is taking the "tie/Patriots" at 10-1 and the "tie/Eagles at 14-1." Basically, I'm cheering for a halftime tie, which would guarantee a winning bet. Sure, I lost a bet and cut my odds in half, but either 5-1 or 7-1 on my combined wagers will more than make up for my previous losses on this prop.
Will there be a score in the last 3 minutes of the fourth quarter: I'll take the "no" at +105 offered at MGM Mirage, though most others have it at minus-money (and still others word it at the "last 2 minutes"). I can see the Pats running out the clock for a victory and worrying more about pouring Gatorade on Bill Belichick and their departing coordinators instead of tacking on another score. Plus, this can be seen as a hedge bet if the Eagles are needing a backdoor score to cover my larger wager on the +7.
