What's wrong with this idea ?

Doug · Feb 7, 2005

Let's scalp baseball with very large bets ( say 5k, on each side). Use only real top books like Pinny, Grande, Oly.

Amass 100k to do this, take a home equity loan or whatever you need to do to get there. Everybody talks about how easy MLB is to scalp. Every 2 cent scalp should yield maybe $50 +, you might find 5-cent scalps. Average 3 scalps a day with 100k BR. Even borrowing the money at low interest.

What's your expected return ? You shouldn't lose money, right ?

wilheim · Feb 7, 2005

What's wrong with this idea ?

Nothing - a lot of guys already do it.

wil.

Doug · Feb 7, 2005

Only potential problem is book failure, or line moves before you lock in both sides. The line move won't kill you often, even betting a side at one book, if it moves against you can get most of your money back, you may rarely eat 1-2 %, no biggie !

I can predict line moves fairly well, so I can lead also, without hurting myself. I'm so confident in this I'm selling a condo to back it ! Other reasons exist for sale also, but a lot of those monies are going offshore !

BAUS · Feb 7, 2005

Book failure would be the #1 reason.

You would pretty much have to make your living the 30 minutes leading up to game time...Eg. 6:30 pm - 7:05 EST...

If you made an error of any kind or some software problem happened with the book, it could be very costly.

I have tried to place bets before at Pinnacle at 4:03 pm......the game starts at 4:05 and unexplicably they take the game OTB. The other side was already locked in at another book.....you see how this can be a problem....now it's time to scramble...

This hasn't happened to me, but it is possible that you could place one bet at a book, then before you could bet the other side, there could be a power failure. Slim chance, I know.....but if you are playing with your mortgage money it would sure suck to have $5k riding on Tampa Bay.....

Line moves seem to help you just as often as they hurt you......I guess it balances out.

BAUS

Doug · Feb 7, 2005

BAUS said:
Book failure would be the #1 reason.

You would pretty much have to make your living the 30 minutes leading up to game time...Eg. 6:30 pm - 7:05 EST...

If you made an error of any kind or some software problem happened with the book, it could be very costly.

I have tried to place bets before at Pinnacle at 4:03 pm......the game starts at 4:05 and unexplicably they take the game OTB. The other side was already locked in at another book.....you see how this can be a problem....now it's time to scramble...

This hasn't happened to me, but it is possible that you could place one bet at a book, then before you could bet the other side, there could be a power failure. Slim chance, I know.....but if you are playing with your mortgage money it would sure suck to have $5k riding on Tampa Bay.....

Line moves seem to help you just as often as they hurt you......I guess it balances out.

BAUS

Baus: Thanks for response, all opinions are welcome, and you are a recognized poster. The power failure theory is weak, it could help just as easily hurt, that's a longshot. I 'm not really suggesting playing with mortgage money, perchance I am. One would have to accept such an endeavor, and associated potential pitfalls Real time scalps exist, problem is if you can get 5k 2 cent scalp against Pinny, the other book isn't Pinny !

Take the lead, be right more than wrong, you're sweet. Even if wrong on lead, you can just eat % loss, and not get hurt too bad.

Some risk always exists, that's why I'm only putting 10 % on a scalp ( lines may move), I'll risk it !

You could keep going back and forth between books making partial wagers, say a game with two books offering +101 on opposite teams, you want $1,000 on each. You could go back and forth for $100, but bet will disappear. Pound it, If you lose on a line move, you didn't lose but a % of a bet !

BAUS · Feb 7, 2005

I know it would be a rare occurance, and that it could help you just as often as hurt you. It just crosses my mind sometimes when I'm scalping during a rainstorm, lol.

If you just had Pinnacle and SIA, you could make 4-5 +EV bets per day. More on weekends.

It never hurts to have a large BR available for when opportunites arise.

BAUS

D2bets · Feb 7, 2005

Only potential issues:
1. Book failure
2. Line may move as you are taking it
3. Making a mistake (taking same side)
4. Takes a lot of time
5. Lots of money transfers (less of an issue with higher bank).

Otherwise, sure, with let's say 200K, spread over at least 10 books, spend 4-6 hours/day at least, you should be able to score over $100/day. It's tedious though, of course.

dav168 · Feb 7, 2005

Another slight problem you could run into(I have), is that you'll lose most of your wagers with Pinnacle and win more often than not with other books. Once you win significant amounts with some other books,they will reduce your limits or politely ask you to play elsewhere.

David

quantumleap · Feb 7, 2005

dav168 said:
Another slight problem you could run into(I have), is that you'll lose most of your wagers with Pinnacle and win more often than not with other books. Once you win significant amounts with some other books,they will reduce your limits or politely ask you to play elsewhere.

David

If that's the case then why play Pinnacle at all? It would seem to me to bet the book on the opposite side.

D2bets · Feb 7, 2005

quantumleap said:
If that's the case then why play Pinnacle at all? It would seem to me to bet the book on the opposite side.

In theory yes, maybe. But you could have a losing season. I haven't really found Pinnacle to be as sage as others seem to.

Also don't forget to check totals. Lots of scalps probably there, plsu reasonably priced shots at sides.

lander · Feb 7, 2005

Wait until you have 5K down on some sh*t team and the other side goes OTB ...

then you'll start to think maybe it wasn't such a great idea.

bigbet1234 · Feb 7, 2005

unless that **** team wins! :suomi:

lander said:
Wait until you have 5K down on some sh*t team and the other side goes OTB ...

then you'll start to think maybe it wasn't such a great idea.

dav168 · Feb 7, 2005

2 years ago I was doing this in the NHL. I had about 6 instances where I couldn't offset my original wager. Each time, my original wager won. It was very nerve wracking but for some reason I was blessed with luck that year.

David

Woody0 · Feb 7, 2005

Good responses in this thread.

While lines often go crazy 5-10 minutes before game time as books try to balance their account you can find positions throughout the day.

To handle those pressure 5 minutes you can use nist.gov for the time and make a cutoff for yourself at 60-90 seconds. Also, always play on the favourite first, in case you don't get down on both sides. Furthermore have accounts and check the P2P sites for those with in game play which provides some additional protection.

D2bets is right on about totals. Not only do they provide more opportunities but they are more likely to present the occassional side or middle.

Doug · Feb 7, 2005

lander said:
Wait until you have 5K down on some sh*t team and the other side goes OTB ...

then you'll start to think maybe it wasn't such a great idea.

You could split it into 2 wagers, to reduce this risk. Go $2500 at book A , $5000 at book B, then $2500 at book A again. It wouldn't take much time, of course time is critical, so I wouldn't do a dime at a time.

What books to use ?

D2: you think only $100 a day ? I would also be taking positions and applying this plan to totals as well. Some scalps could be greater than 5k on each side, if limits allow it.

D2bets · Feb 7, 2005

Doug, well I guess I'd say at least that. The harder (and smarter) you work the more you make. And of course just depending on your books act. Maybe you can make 500/day. Certainly possible.

X-Files · Feb 7, 2005

lander said:
Wait until you have 5K down on some sh*t team and the other side goes OTB ...

then you'll start to think maybe it wasn't such a great idea.

In my experience this kind of thing almost never happened, like 1
in 10,000 times or so.

If you have two windows open at the same time, you can make
your bets almost simultaneously, which leaves very little time for
the other side to go off the board {OTB} if the first has already
been wagered.

The vast majority of my wagering was also for far less than that,
in the 800 CDN range, or sometimes double that for FBL, plus or
minus the vig. So never had any 5000's to worry about.

On larger wagers, sometimes, due to a concern like that or a big
line change the wrong way, i would break it up into smaller
amounts. For example, by making 5 successive $800 bets if the
window of opportunity remained.

oldmanTED · Feb 7, 2005

While it is likely that you can scalp your way to a profit. If you are only turning $100/day, you're only talking about making $3000/month or $36,000/year while working most likely at least 8 hours a day to catch the few scalps you will be able to find. For my time, the return is not worth the effort. Catching scalps when presented but not making it full time is more cost and time effective. There are far more lucrative investments with one's time then trying to scalp for a living. Nothing against those that wish to scalp to earn income, but just ask yourself whether with the time you spend trying to scalp are there better ways to make this amount of money in less time. Answer: Absolutely

CHOPTALK · Feb 7, 2005

If it takes a 200,000 bankroll to make 100 a day you are making a big mistake. You can almost make that much money in interest at a bank, and you are FDIC insured. With such a small margin of profit, all it takes is one book that you have your money spread over to fold and you lose all your profit, and just as important, the time you spent making your money. You can make more money picking up cans off the street with much less risk than doing this. It would be one thing if you only had to use Pinny, Oly, Cris, etc, but to really scalp you need to put your trust in some books that are not worth the kind of money you need to trust them with. And besides, baseball is the easiest sport of all sports to beat. I have never had a losing season in bases. Of corse I give it all back during football season.

X-Files · Feb 7, 2005

oldmanTED said:
While it is likely that you can scalp your way to a profit. If you are only turning $100/day, you're only talking about making $3000/month or $36,000/year while working most likely at least 8 hours a day to catch the few scalps you will be able to find. For my time, the return is not worth the effort. Catching scalps when presented but not making it full time is more cost and time effective. There are far more lucrative investments with one's time then trying to scalp for a living. Nothing against those that wish to scalp to earn income, but just ask yourself whether with the time you spend trying to scalp are there better ways to make this amount of money in less time. Answer: Absolutely

Absolutely.

If only i were a Vulcan & could do a mind-meld with OMT ;

Until then scalping-bonus whoring is the safer non gambling way to go.
Perhaps less stressful, too.

Besides, what if OMT went on an unbelievable run & lost 50/100 units
{50/100% of bankroll}? Or, more realisticly, went on a year long poor
run & didn't make anything? Not likely, but **** happens.

What's wrong with this idea ?

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