Is this a money making Idea?

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It seems that there are a lot of overtime games in the NBA this year, more than in the past. And when a game goes overtime the over is almost always a lock. So assuming that over the course of a year 50% of all 48 min games go over when you add the overtime games in, if you put a small amount of money on the over on every NBA game the rest of the season you should more than make a profit. Is this a good Idea?
 

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choptalk said:
It seems that there are a lot of overtime games in the NBA this year, more than in the past. And when a game goes overtime the over is almost always a lock. So assuming that over the course of a year 50% of all 48 min games go over when you add the overtime games in, if you put a small amount of money on the over on every NBA game the rest of the season you should more than make a profit. Is this a good Idea?

was wondering the same thing, hence my % of OT game thread....
seems to easy, so im sure someone will tell us why it won't work
 

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As to explaining in detail why it wouldn't work, I'm not sure I can do it.

But in short, if it worked, people would already be making money off it.
 

Oh boy!
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If 50% of games go over (including OT games), then how do you make money betting the over?

I'm guessing the linesmakers take OT games into consideration. That is generally why the average line for 2nd halfs is more than that for 1st halfs.
 
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I would think that the possibility of overtime results has been
factored into the total so that about 50% of games end up
going over & under. With the vig you would need, what, about
52.4% overs just to break even, if you bet every game over.
Perhaps a selective approach {e.g. certain teams & spreads}
would work better with betting over every time. BTW, i see
some wild vigs on some Pinnacle totals & was wondering how
one might do if they always bet the huge plus {+} sides on
the totals. For example, to use an imaginary illustration:

NJ/Indy over 201 +160
NJ/Indy under 201 -170
 

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Ok, if they factor in OT in totals, how about betting the over on every game where a team is a 10 point favorite or more, because the higher the spread, it would be less likely to be competitive, and less likely to go overtime. If someone has numbers on the over % on games with a 10 point spread going over, I would be very interested. Im resorting to gimmicks now on this NBA crap, im about to give up this lousy league. The min game -4 vs celtics at home was the final straw. Cant wait for baseball season. This sport is becoming a joke as far as handicaping. No matter what angle you go after, it always ends up making you scratch your head in disbelief.
 

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choptalk said:
Ok, if they factor in OT in totals, how about betting the over on every game where a team is a 10 point favorite or more, because the higher the spread, it would be less likely to be competitive, and less likely to go overtime. If someone has numbers on the over % on games with a 10 point spread going over, I would be very interested. Im resorting to gimmicks now on this NBA crap, im about to give up this lousy league. The min game -4 vs celtics at home was the final straw. Cant wait for baseball season. This sport is becoming a joke as far as handicaping. No matter what angle you go after, it always ends up making you scratch your head in disbelief.

I like the way you think choptalk. But I think the linesmakers take individual games into consideration. In other words, they don't make the lines based upon the average for the league. They factor in games where a team is favored by 10 points or more just like you have learned to take that into consideration as well.
 

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You can't adjust the line to compensate for an "extra" 15-20 points. You as bookie can't shade the line 6 points high, to compensate. Ot usually means over. The question is good. I got burned on one tonight. I had NY/ utah under 98.5 in H2 that stayed under with the total even with the OT. I lost ( by a half point) on NY under 49.5 points for H2. I hate unders in NBA, because of OT.

NFL is different, usually just 3 points "extra".

I combat the OT by betting a lot of H2, I'll play into it, lean to over if OT seems possible. I'll play quarters too. I hate losing an under in OT, it really gets me.

I was off in Sherman's thread. I said 10%, answer was 6%. It sure seems like 10%, I thought my guess was on the high side.

I don't know how to predict a line with OT, but you can't tweak it a few points, that won't account for the extra 5 minutes. I look at the possibility of OT when betting, for sure.
 

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There has been a lot of OT games this year...but after tonight we're going to see a severe shortage of OT games...maybe.

What you are essentially saying is that you want to bet on a streak. The problem is that you cannot determine when the streak is finished, until after you have lost.
 

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Woody0 said:
There has been a lot of OT games this year...but after tonight we're going to see a severe shortage of OT games...maybe.

What you are essentially saying is that you want to bet on a streak. The problem is that you cannot determine when the streak is finished, until after you have lost.

Point taken !
 

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Under in large spread games

I like the under in big lined games. Phon and Sac tend to pull players early if up big in 4th quarter. I know Phon has been a high scoring team but watch out they have been sitting everyone in Blowouts. Exception was the New York game where they score 15 points in the last minute to cover the 219. Total are tough in NBA better to find good sides. Then again sides have been tough for me this year. Getting ready for my run 2 weeks before the break I always kick butt. NBA has been hard to cap due to many player changes and my numbers don't seem to stay consitance like they used to.
 

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so far this year there have been 51 OT games, slightly ahead of what it should be. Of those 51 games the O/U record is 44-7, which is pretty simple to assume why.


BUT the average totals in those game was only 190. While the average score of those games was 211.

The average line in those games was -2.2,so it is hardto determine which games you will need to be looking at for OT.
When you look at every game so far this year the O/U records are 367-331-9. When you take away the OT games you get 323-324-9, so that is about as close to 50/50 as you can get.

So basically if the game doesn't go into OT you have a coin flips shot of hitting the total.
 

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Also for those guys saying bet the under with a bigger spread...


In games with a 5+ pt fave the O/U recs are 226-206-7.

In games with a 10+ pt fave the rec is 58-57-1 so again a coin flip either way.
 

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