Observation On Basketball

winbet · Feb 13, 2005

I dont profess to know anything about Basketball but, as the old saying goes, I didnt get to where I am (not sure where that is) by being stupid when it comes to betting. Following a few posters here last year, I blindly made Money on Basketball, so this Year I thought I would dip my toe in the water again, considering this is the kipper season for me.

In another thread, I questioned why there was so many fluctuations in the US Books in Basketball to which Dimeplayersonly posted how hard it was to get a handle on the spread. I have never read a post of Dimeplayersonly that hasnt made sense, and he is a credit to this Forum. However, I think Dime might be looking from a Books angle and notices the games that were off from their point of view. From a punters side, the winners dont notice the spread and the punters who lose by a long chalk dont either.

I am personally amazed at how near the US Books are with their Basketball. What people need to consider is the situation with 2-3 minutes to go, it would seem the majority of the time, no matter whats happened in a game, the Books spread is right there and its nothing but heartache to the end. If you havent access to exchanges, where you can bet in-running, I think you are better betting the M/Ls, that way you can negate some of the suffering that seems to be part of Basketball betting on a regular basis.

By the way, a prime example was the Boston game tonight. Being +2.5, they were up 12 at one point and 6 quite late, only to lose. At least betting the M/L, it cost you less, financially and emotionally.

sherman · Feb 13, 2005

winbet said:
I dont profess to know anything about Basketball but, as the old saying goes, I didnt get to where I am (not sure where that is) by being stupid when it comes to betting. Following a few posters here last year, I blindly made Money on Basketball, so this Year I thought I would dip my toe in the water again, considering this is the kipper season for me.

In another thread, I questioned why there was so many fluctuations in the US Books in Basketball to which Dimeplayersonly posted how hard it was to get a handle on the spread. I have never read a post of Dimeplayersonly that hasnt made sense, and he is a credit to this Forum. However, I think Dime might be looking from a Books angle and notices the games that were off from their point of view. From a punters side, the winners dont notice the spread and the punters who lose by a long chalk dont either.

I am personally amazed at how near the US Books are with their Basketball. What people need to consider is the situation with 2-3 minutes to go, it would seem the majority of the time, no matter whats happened in a game, the Books spread is right there and its nothing but heartache to the end. If you havent access to exchanges, where you can bet in-running, I think you are better betting the M/Ls, that way you can negate some of the suffering that seems to be part of Basketball betting on a regular basis.

By the way, a prime example was the Boston game tonight. Being +2.5, they were up 12 at one point and 6 quite late, only to lose. At least betting the M/L, it cost you less, financially and emotionally.

so you are saying only bet ML's on underdogs

D2bets · Feb 13, 2005

9 finals so far today and 7 of them have been decided by either 3 or 4 points. That's my obervation of the day.

winbet · Feb 13, 2005

Sherman,

All I am saying is people should put extra time in considering the M/L before taking on the spread. All to often, we take the points spread without thinking. You will see it on here all the time, people posting picks + this - that when the M/l would be the smartest play.

sherman · Feb 13, 2005

sometimes the ML is the way to go, i just didn't like the way you said "At least betting the M/L, it cost you less, financially and emotionally" because that leads one to believe you should only bet the ML on a dog, never a favorite.....

Kornholio · Feb 13, 2005

winbet said:
I am personally amazed at how near the US Books are with their Basketball. What people need to consider is the situation with 2-3 minutes to go, it would seem the majority of the time, no matter whats happened in a game, the Books spread is right there and its nothing but heartache to the end.
QUOTE]

The real question is...how can you take advantage of games falling so close to the number so often?

winbet · Feb 13, 2005

Sherman,
By taking the M/L on a Favourite, as you probably are well aware, your only question is when it loses, why did I get sucked in to betting an odds-on loser. However, betting the spread opens up all sorts of scenarios that eat you up inside. A shrewd Jewish punter said to me once, always consider how you will feel when the result is up on the board, and thats the best advise I ever heard.

TheGeneral+ · Feb 13, 2005

3 point shot has ruined the game IMO. Would be much better without.

D2bets · Feb 13, 2005

winbet, and how will you feel if you take the ML instead of +2.5 and the team loses by 2? :sad3:

sherman · Feb 13, 2005

winbet said:
Sherman,
By taking the M/L on a Favourite, as you probably are well aware, your only question is when it loses, why did I get sucked in to betting an odds-on loser. However, betting the spread opens up all sorts of scenarios that eat you up inside. A shrewd Jewish punter said to me once, always consider how you will feel when the result is up on the board, and thats the best advise I ever heard.

that goes for any kind of bet is all i am saying

Fezzik · Feb 13, 2005

Money Line betting "the way to go"

Just look at that UNLV/SD STATE game and the Pacific/UTah State game. MLS help us avoid the inherent unpredictableness in college hoops.

.............lmao at the entire thread here.

D2bets · Feb 13, 2005

Yeah, and those who took the ML today on GT or WU must have felt great. I think the fav ML is often the worst possible bet on the board. ML dogs can be great though, esp if you have sufficient number of outs to shop them.

winbet · Feb 13, 2005

D2,

I will take this opportunity to thank you for your smart and helpful posts and likewise Dimeplayersonly. I am not trying to teach people to suck eggs, I just think if people give the M/L more thought they wouldnt have so much grief, especially the last minutes of a game.

D2bets · Feb 13, 2005

winbet, I understand. Everyone's opinions are important. However, I think bettors would probably be better off ignorning the grief factor and emtoions and just focusing on the bottom line. Is it worth less profits to have less grief? Not for me. But everyone's goals are different I guess.

winbet · Feb 13, 2005

I wonder how these threads take a bend in the road but I will try to explain again. By taking the M/L on a Fav, all you have to ask yourself is whether you are getting value, full stop. By getting involved with the spread, you now have other things to contemplate and more things can go wrong, something that seems to be more than common place in the NBA. I'm sure even the great Fessik will agree .

winbet · Feb 13, 2005

Anyways, its 3am over here and the sheep are getting restless:hump: by me being up so late, talk again tomorrow.

Woody0 · Feb 13, 2005

In response to your comment about grief in the final 1-2 minutes it can apply to both spread and ML bets. Right now Seattle is down 94:92 with 2 seconds to go. I have them at -1.5. How would a ML bet be any better?

D2bets · Feb 13, 2005

Wow, another 3 point game. 8 out of 10 games today decided by 3 (5 games) or 4 points (3 games). Bizarre.

Doug · Feb 13, 2005

Personally I don't like a moneyline on a small dog like 2 points or so, I'd rather get a free half. I refuse to play a fav on ML. A ML on a larger dog is nice. Better yet are action points, I like the flexibility they allow you. I like second half also.

Horseshoe · Feb 14, 2005

The General said:
3 point shot has ruined the game IMO. Would be much better without.

Gen The Gent, I disagree, without the "great equalizer", the great run of success shared by both the NCAA and NBA from the late seventies until recent year's slide with fans, wouldn't have happened to the degree that it did, despite the stars that arrived to help both games..with also tv and expanded playoff/tourney formats being just as key.

Though I'm a purest in terms of the old-game, and liked aesthetically better the game I grew up watching, it's not the three-pointer that I take issue with, but rather that the NBA should be one foot further, and the NCAA's should be 3 ft further.

How many guys had the NCAA ROI pre-the-three, that they have had since..especially in tourney betting?

Someone should ask Herbie Hoops, Pittsburgh Jack, BW, BB, Buddy,etc..what they think of the 3?..my hunch is they like it..as they are dog bettors.

The three-ball is an NCAA tourney dog bettor's greatest ally!