TWO PART QUIZ---NBA spread of -1 or PROBOWL total of 64

Fishhead · Feb 14, 2005

An NBA game moves from PK to -1

The total on the NFL PROBOWL moves from 63 to 64

QUIZ QUESTION #1-Out of the above example, what has a greater chance of falling on the number.........the NBA favorite at -1 or the PROBOWL game on a total of 64?

QUIZ QUESTION #2- In the recent PROBOWL, the total basically moved from 60 to 66..........how many CENTS in vig do you believe each HALF POINT was worth between the numbers 60 and 66?

Thanks,
---FISH---

D2bets · Feb 14, 2005

#1 -- Though NBA games don't push the '1' that often, I'll lean slightly with the NBA game over the '64' Pro Bowl. 64 is a tough number because you don't really expect to see a lot of safeties or 2-pt conversions and so you'd need 5 FG's to get to the number. That's a lot of FG's for a Pro Bowl.

#2 -- I'd say somewhere between 4 and 5 cents average per half, with the cumulative effect of the full 6 point move being slightly worth more than that per half point.

nimue77 · Feb 14, 2005

I also lean slightly to -1, even though 1 is worse than at least 2-12.

THE SHRINK · Feb 14, 2005

1-NBA FAVORITE OF 1 IS MORE LIKELY TO HIT THAN A TOTAL OF 64 ON A PRO BOWL GAME....

2-EACH 1/2 POINT BETWEEN 60-66 IS WORTH APPROXIMATELY 3.3956204182 cents....

THE SHRINK

nimue77 · Feb 14, 2005

And for B, "QUIZ QUESTION #2- In the recent PROBOWL, the total basically moved from 60 to 66..........how many CENTS in vig do you believe each HALF POINT was worth between the numbers 60 and 66?"

are you talking about having 60 all the way to 66 or how much is a side on each individual number worth?

i'd say over60/under66 = its worth about around 100 cents in vig

each individual number is worth different amounts

Fishhead · Feb 14, 2005

nimue77 said:
And for B, "QUIZ QUESTION #2- In the recent PROBOWL, the total basically moved from 60 to 66..........how many CENTS in vig do you believe each HALF POINT was worth between the numbers 60 and 66?"

are you talking about having 60 all the way to 66 or how much is a side on each individual number worth?

i'd say over60/under66 = its worth about around 100 cents in vig

each individual number is worth different amounts

I suggest you redo your calculations.

In the above example you gave, that is over 8 cents per half point if I am not mistaken.............which is not near correct.

100/12 = 8+ cents

---FISH---

---FISH---

D2bets · Feb 14, 2005

Fish....60 to 66 has 13 half points, not 12.

I disagree with 100 cents vig worth also, I'd say about 60 to 65 cents. Cumulative effect slightly better than each individual half.

Fishhead · Feb 14, 2005

D2bets said:
Fish....60 to 66 has 13 half points, not 12.

I disagree with 100 cents vig worth also, I'd say about 60 to 65 cents. Cumulative effect slightly better than each individual half.

Correct

100/13 = 7.7 cents

Cumulative effect better too, your right.

---FISH---

nimue77 · Feb 14, 2005

OK, I was trying to figure in the cumulative effect but I guess I overdid it. Would you say the cumulative effect would add a cent to each half points worth?

Fishhead · Feb 15, 2005

nimue77 said:
OK, I was trying to figure in the cumulative effect but I guess I overdid it. Would you say the cumulative effect would add a cent to each half points worth?

Once again, hard to say with absolute certainty.

---FISH---

Fezzik · Feb 15, 2005

ProBowl 6 point move vs. Super Bowl.

I haven't seen anyone mention the Alternative totals lines yets. When the SB was at 47.5, what were the vigs on lines like 41.5 and 51.5 etc?

I would think 5 extra (or fewer) points on the SB (lined at 47) would be worth about 6 extra (or fewer) points on the Pro Bowl (lined at 65).

Ps. re: Shrink's 3.4 cents estimate, this implies a 3 point middle is basically break even.

Can I have some OVER 63 -112 with some UNDER 66 -112 please???

CRUNCH!!!!!!!!!! I'd bury anyone booking that!

..........in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king

:monsters-

Fishhead · Feb 15, 2005

Fezzik said:
I haven't seen anyone mention the Alternative totals lines yets. When the SB was at 47.5, what were the vigs on lines like 41.5 and 51.5 etc?

I would think 5 extra (or fewer) points on the SB (lined at 47) would be worth about 6 extra (or fewer) points on the Pro Bowl (lined at 65).

Ps. re: Shrink's 3.4 cents estimate, this implies a 3 point middle is basically break even.

Can I have some OVER 63 -112 with some UNDER 66 -112 please???

CRUNCH!!!!!!!!!! I'd bury anyone booking that!

..........in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king

:monsters-

SHRINK- 3.4 cents
FISH- 4.0 cents
FEZZ- 5.5 cents

That was the ORIGINAL estimations by the three of us.

Do not think it is under 3.7 cents or over 4.75 cents, so think my estimate is the closest. :drink: :drink: :drink: :drink: :toast:

I feel very confortable being the middle man here.

---FISH---

D2bets · Feb 15, 2005

Fezzik, good point, but overall I'd say a SB total of 47 or so is cinsiderably tighter and less variant that a Pro Bowl total, for obvious reasons. Gimme a choice right now for next year and I would take a 5 point totals middle on the SB over a 6 point middle on the Pro Bowl, hands down. Just my opinion. I'd say it's more like 4 SB points equals 6 for the PB. With that in mind, off of consensus 47-110 I would say O43 or U51 would be lined roughly -190/+170...call it 180 fair value. So we're looking at a difference of 70 cents vig off the standard -110. I thought it might be a little less, but 70 cents is probably about right.

D2bets · Feb 15, 2005

Fishhead said:
SHRINK- 3.4 cents
FISH- 4.0 cents
FEZZ- 5.5 cents

That was the ORIGINAL estimations by the three of us.

Do not think it is under 3.7 cents or over 4.75 cents, so think my estimate is the closest. :drink: :drink: :drink: :drink: :toast:

I feel very confortable being the middle man here.

---FISH---

4.0 cents * 13 sides = 52 cents. -126 both ways...pays 7.7-1. I'd take that any day. Gotta be better than that.

Fishhead · Feb 15, 2005

D2bets said:
4.0 cents * 13 sides = 52 cents. -126 both ways...pays 7.7-1. I'd take that any day. Gotta be better than that.

Ok, try it with 4.5 cents and see what you come up with.

---FISH---

PS- Be back in 60, going for a walk.

Perpetual_Czech · Feb 15, 2005

I think you guys are getting a little off track here. You can't talk about moves in units of cents like this when you get as high as 70 cents or 100 cents. For example, a moves of +150 to -150 and +100 to -200 are both moves of "100 cents" but the former represents a much bigger move (20% vs. 16.7%) The original question should have been how many percentage points is each half point move worth, not how many cents.

So far all I've seen in this thread is a lot of guesswork based on feeling and that's a very dangerous way to get answers in this business. On another forum Fezzik suggested a fairly simple exercise to stop some of this guesswork: start assigning percentages to each point using a normal distribution and see how much each point gets once you get everything to add up to 100%.

I've been too lazy to do that so far, but an even simpler exercise might shed at least be a good starting point for an answer. Try putting:

=NORMDIST(66,66,15,FALSE)

into Excel and you get that the midpoint should be worth around 2.65%. I know some points are going to be stronger than others becuase of scoring in clumps of 3's and 7's but this is at least a reasonable figure to start out with for an average. BTW, I used a standard deviation of 15 because SD for a regular season game is 14 so I bumped it up a little.

So to answer the original question, I think most of you are way too low in your guesses and that a half point move should be worth between 5.5 and 6 cents. And that makes it worth more than the 1 in an NBA game.

TWO PART QUIZ---NBA spread of -1 or PROBOWL total of 64

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