Props Math Question

Yesterday, while making prices for the college basketball props, I came across a Yes/No prop that was +122 yes/-138 no.

The yes side was the ugly side, but I priced it +105, so I guess there was a slight overlay, but I felt 17 cents wasn't enough to bet because I really thought the no would hit.

I didn't bet it (they yes won). Did I make an error? Should I have made the bet on Yes?

Any thoughts appreciated. THank you.

This is a Return On Investment issue:

Your expected return (per $100 bet) at your line of +105 is $205 (including stake)

Betting their line of +122 your expected return is $222

The difference between the two is $17 (222-205)

$17 / expected return on bet = 17/222 = 7.66%

Ideally you want at least 10% ROI, but as low as 7% is okay.
So yeah, maybe you should have bet.

That's the way I work it out. Maybe that's wrong.

Thanks Abe. I think you are right and I probably should have bet it.

I didn't like the "Yes" side, but I thought it was the right side. I find little props like this all the time and sometimes I let my subjective opinions get in the way of placing the wager. But in this case, I think I was clearly wrong.

The line probably went up even higher because I had to leave for dinner last night, so I'm sure it was probably an even better ROI later in the evening.

I don't have a problem playing the larger ROIs even when I know they'll probably lose. Perfect Example: Kenyon Martin YES/NO to have a double-double on Sunday. Line opened at Yes +220 I think and I took Yes immediately because even though Kenyon Martin hasn't been getting double-digit rebounds, I thought the No was overpriced. Plus, he was playing his old team and had a double-double against them earlier in the year. The play lost, but those types of plays are easier for me to make.

It's these little plays along the path that I struggle with, but I think that's where you can pick up bets that make you more profit.

Thanks.
AK

i also consider whether it's going to be something i bet on long-term.

as a one-off 7% is nothing, but if you bet on a lot of these props and are patient you can be happy that you'll get your 7% over the long-haul even if you start with a few losses.

THe long term is key and that's the problem -- finding books that offer the same props all season long in basketball. I've found a few, and Pinny has had some nice props lately. Olympic and others always some good stuff up. I wish more books would expand their offerings.