MadCappers 2005 Baseball Thread

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

Hey everyone....Opening Day is just around the corner!

I will begin with some early futures that I feel have some value.

Indians +310 to win AL Central (3 units)
Padres +260 to win NL West (3 units)
Marlins +270 to win NL East (5 units)
Marlins +940 to win NL Penant -- Potential hedge opps (2 units)
Marlins + 1750 to win WS -- Potential hedge opps (1 unit)

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

The AL central is up for grabs this year. I don't think Minnesota will win that division again. The Indians are a very young and talented team. They have a loaded lineup and if Aaron Boone can recapture some magic, this lineup should be able to put up runs on anyone. Travis Hafner will be an All-Star this year. Victor Martinez should be one. If Juan Gonzalez can stay healthy this year, he would be a huge plus to that lineup. The pitching staff is young too and will only get better. Kevin Millwood was a nice addition to a staff that already has C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, and C. Lee. I can see a nice 4 team race in which everyone except the Royals will compete for the division. The White Sox will probably endure their annual second half spiral. In my opinion, the Tigers and Twins will be the Indians strongest opposition in the division.

In that divison, the Tribe at +310 has value.

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

I also believe that the NL West is up for grabs this year. I believe the Dodgers took a step back this offseason, losing Beltre and Green. Drew is a nice pickup, but he wont make them forget about Beltre. The D-Backs lost their best pitcher but improved their lineup. Glaus could have a big year. With controversy surrounding Bonds, I have no idea what to expect from the Giants. They made some nice acquisitions with Visquel, Alou and Matheny, but their starting rotation leaves alot to wonder. Schmidt is awesome when healthy. But the rest of the rotation is adequate at best. That brings us to the Padres. They are my darkhorse team. They have a dangerous lineup from top to bottom. Dave Roberts will provide a spark at the top and will have 4 very good bats behond him to drive him home....Loretta, Giles, Nevin, Klesko. The Padres need 140 games from Nevin and Klesko this season. The starting rotation took a hit with the departure of old man Wells, but I believe they have the best rotation in the West...by far! Jake Peavy is a future cy young award winner. He can be dominant. Lawrence and Eaton have very live arms too. They can both win 15 games this year. Woody Williams adds veteran leadership. It will probably come down to a 3 team race between the Padres, Giants, and Dodgers.

I will gladly take the Padres at +260.

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

My favorite future belongs to the Marlins. If Burnett and Beckett can finally stay healthy for the entire season, there should be no reason this team doesn't win the NL East. They have to hope Mota can be a dominant closer. I think he can be. The Marlins just may have the best all around lineup in the division. They have the best tablesetters in Pierre and Castillo. These guys are always on base. Pierre is a human triple. Castillo is great with the bat when Pierre is on base. Their 3-6 is perhaps the best in baseball. Phenom Miguel Cabrera keeps getting better. He had a dynamite season in '04 and with Carlos Delgado protecting him this year, he should put up MVP type numbers. The Marlins desperately needed a lefty bat and they more than got that with the signing of Carlos Delgado. Lowell bats 5th and should do his usual 30/100 season. Loduca holds the fort down batting 6th. Conine and A. Gonzalez are not too shabby batting 7th and 8th. This team is absolutely loaded. The only thing that will stop this team from winning the East is if Beckett and Burnett are sidelines for a substantial amount of time and if the middle relief comes up empty....Oh and one more obstacle...the Braves.

At +270...I love the Marlins chances.

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

Everyone is welcome to share their thoughts and opinions in this thead....

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

Here are a few more props that I like alot....

These can be found at Olympic. (The previous ones I got at Pinnacle)

Marlins -130 to win season series with Mets -130 (4 units)
Cubs -140 to win season series with Astros (3 units)

honestabe · Feb 15, 2005

Hi Madcapper

I'm a Padres fan and like their chances in the NL West.
The offense will only improve from last year and the loss of Wells will be partly offset by Woody Williams and the improvement in Adam Eaton. As good as Jake Peavy is, you can't expect him to improve much from his stellar performance last year.
They were only 4 wins behind San Fran who will struggle to win 91 again and 6 behind LA.
My only fear is that during the pennant race LA will have more funds for DePodesta to spend and he'll do enough to win the division.
But still, at the price, they're a great bet.

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

Always good to hear the view point of a realistic fan. I agree with you about the part of the Dodgers spending more during the stretch run. But I believe the Padres wont need that much. Maybe a arm in the pen. Peavy had an incredible 2.26 era last season. Obviously, he wont be able to match that. But I think as the offense gets better, he will win some more games. This team should be fun to watch. If Nevin and Klesko can stay healthy this team will start to score runs...even at home. I think Khalil Greene can get better too. This team is good.

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

If anyone knows of any books that have Season Win Futures already up, please let me know.

Thanx.

Mookdog · Feb 15, 2005

Interesting call on Indians. I like taking chalk somewhere in that division, though I took the Detroits at +680. (Greedy, maybe.) I think either could break through. Don't like Juan. He plays when he wants to, which is rarely these days. He won't even show up for games in the Metrodome.

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

I hear ya about Juan Gone. Maybe he will come to play this year. Either way I like the Indians team this year. Alot of young players with alot of talent.

bubba-sc · Feb 15, 2005

MadCapper said:
In that divison, the Tribe at +310 has value.

I may join you on this one. Getting Millwood was solid pickup, maybe Gonzo can sneak some juice into the wigwam...:drink:

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

bubba-sc said:
I may join you on this one. Getting Millwood was solid pickup, maybe Gonzo can sneak some juice into the wigwam...:drink:

HAHA. Millwood is a solid pickup. But remember that Sabathia, Westbrook and Lee are also very solid pitchers. Their offense will score runs too. This team will be fun to watch. Hafner will be an allstar this season.

MadCapper · Feb 15, 2005

I have been eyeing this prop at Olympic...

Which pitcher will get more wins?
Martinez +2 +100
Johnson -2 -130

The obvious choice would seem to be Johnson. Pedro will porbably miss a few starts. Plus Pedro will lose a few decisions when he has to be pinch hit for in a tie game. Johnson has a potent lineup backing him. Only negative for Johnson is he will be facing some tougher lineups in the AL. I still think he can win 20 and I see Pedro winning about 16.

Okay I talked myself into it.

Johnson -2 -130 (3 units)

Opie · Feb 15, 2005

MadCapper said:
HAHA. Millwood is a solid pickup. But remember that Sabathia, Westbrook and Lee are also very solid pitchers. Their offense will score runs too. This team will be fun to watch. Hafner will be an allstar this season.

also remeber the names Ryan Garko (C/1B) and Michael Aubrey (1B/OF). if Hafner gets hurt, or Broussard sucks again in 1st H, either/both might make an impact. Both can mash and they're REAL CLOSE. go Tribe!!

MadCapper · Feb 16, 2005

Opie,

Right on! This team will surprise people.

Shotgun · Feb 16, 2005

Is it sound money management to spend 20+ units (half at -130 or higher) on wagers that will pay out 8 months later if they win?

MadCapper · Feb 16, 2005

I am posting these plays to share my thoughts with people. I am by no means telling people to play ALL these futures. I am just sharing what I think is good value and my reasons for believing it.

You can look at the units as rankings...

5 units = extremely strong opinion
4 units = very strong opinion
3 units = strong opinion
2 units = above avg opinion
1 unit = some value

I am just posting to share information with everyone and to give them a heads-up on what I believe has value.

Additionally future bets can provide great hedging opps. For example with the RJ vs Pedro bet...If RJ has 17 wins and Pedro has 15 or 16 and its RJ's last start and hes a -350 fav to someone, you can take the huge dog to hedge your bet. Same applies with some other futures.

Good Luck.

Degenerate · Feb 16, 2005

I agree about Cleveland being a young improving ballclub. Still, Minnesota with it's best player hurt still won the AL Central. Yes, Joe Mauer is their best player even without a full season played. Do people realize how good this kid is?

MadCapper · Feb 16, 2005

Mauer is tremendous. That is why the Twins are the favorites.

MadCappers 2005 Baseball Thread

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