give me your honest opinion...

blueedwards · Feb 18, 2005

...is this a good play or a stupid move:

for odds on who will win the nl central, i can find both the cubs and the cardinals at plus money. imo, no one else has a shot at that division. how stupid would it be to pound the cubbies at the best price and the cards at the best price. assume i could get +190 for the cubs and +120 for the cards.

am i a moron?

michael777 · Feb 18, 2005

:money8: go for it blue!!

aceduecetrey · Feb 18, 2005

Blue- I dont see anyone else winning the division myself, but baseball is baseball and it is not out of reach to think some other team could get there. Where are you finding the cubs at +190? I like that alot.

MadCapper · Feb 18, 2005

Are you a Cubbies fan? I would just pound the Cubbies for +190 if I was a Cubs fan. I wouldnt do both even though they are both for + money. The +190 is good and I think the Cubs have a great chance to win that division. The loss of Renteria will hurt the Cards more then they can imagine.

THE SHRINK · Feb 18, 2005

blue,

You are a MORON for betting this amd here is why...

Given those odds, and assuming you bet equal amounts (100 dollars each) on both the cubs and cardinals, the best you can hope for is a 10 dollar loss if the Cubs win and an 80 dollar loss of the Cards win...

THE SHRINK

D2bets · Feb 18, 2005

Blue, look at it from this angle...

Let's say you wanted to eqaul out both of these bets.
+190 1000/1900
+120 1318/1582

You'd be risking 2318 to win 582. This is very close to -400 chalk. So the question then is: Would you lay -400 that the division winner will be either St. Louis or Chicago? That's essentially what the bet is.

Also worth considering, do you want to tie up 4X more risk than win money for over 7 months?

Not my cup of tea, but I'm not sure I'd call it a 'stupid move'.

DickyW · Feb 18, 2005

Blue

I would never put all your money in two baskets before the season even starts. At this stage I would take the best availble team at the best available price. It may look like a two dog race but you never know **** happens. St. Louis +120 is no bargain and very well could still be available in June. When betting Divisions I like to make a strong early stand on one team and grab the value if it comes my way. Just one squares opinion

D2bets · Feb 18, 2005

THE SHRINK said:
blue,

You are a MORON for betting this amd here is why...

Given those odds, and assuming you bet equal amounts (100 dollars each) on both the cubs and cardinals, the best you can hope for is a 10 dollar loss if the Cubs win and an 80 dollar loss of the Cards win...

THE SHRINK

Shrinkage,

Time to enroll in some remedial math... :drink:

blueedwards · Feb 18, 2005

D2bets said:
Shrinkage,

Time to enroll in some remedial math... :drink:

you tell him d.

TheGeneral+ · Feb 18, 2005

No, because it is not a guarantee.

blueedwards · Feb 18, 2005

The General said:
No, because it is not a guarantee.

pete, we are gamblers. guarantees are not part of the deal...usually.

THE SHRINK · Feb 18, 2005

Yikes,

My bad....:drink:

I stand corrected...

viking611 · Feb 18, 2005

pound the cards...but first tell me what site so i can pound them too.

Fishhead · Feb 18, 2005

THE SHRINK said:
Yikes,

My bad....:drink:

I stand corrected...

:grandmais :grandmais :grandmais

Either start with the cosmos, or lighten up on them.............whichever the case may be.

---FISH---
PHD

blueedwards · Feb 18, 2005

DickyW said:
Blue

I would never put all your money in two baskets before the season even starts. At this stage I would take the best availble team at the best available price. It may look like a two dog race but you never know **** happens. St. Louis +120 is no bargain and very well could still be available in June. When betting Divisions I like to make a strong early stand on one team and grab the value if it comes my way. Just one squares opinion

good point dicky. i may just take the cubbies.

man, what the hell am i DOING?!?!

Groucho · Feb 18, 2005

No bloody way I would do it. I wouldn't characterize it as stupid - but it's definitely not my style. That's just too much money to tie up for that long. I could make 10X that profit over that length of time with that money - without any risk of losing - without even trying.

Personally I think you're talking about your certainty of winning like it's much more of a lock than it really is. I've been around for awhile and seen too many surprise division winners - in all sports. Obviously injuries can be a factor - but sometimes it's just an outright surprise and someone unexpected plays great.

I would definitely call it a bad play.

aceduecetrey · Feb 18, 2005

Blue- Where are the cubbies +190?

sherman · Feb 18, 2005

not worth the tie up for little profit imo....

aceduecetrey · Feb 18, 2005

I dont think the Cardinal will win the division. Of the 14 times they have been to the world series they have only won the division 3 times the following year and have finished on average 13+ games back.

Woody0 · Feb 18, 2005

D2bets said:
Also worth considering, do you want to tie up 4X more risk than win money for over 7 months?

Not my cup of tea, but I'm not sure I'd call it a 'stupid move'.

There is another general approach, although in this particular case the odds are not as good.

On Tradesports you can get the Cards at +100 and the Cubs at +177. There are two advantages the exchange offers. The first is that the market runs all season and positions can be increased or liquidated. The second is that you can operate a margin account and only a small fraction of your liability is frozen. In this way not all of your money is tied up.