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Thread: Vegas Locals: How Much Is Too Much?

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  1. #1 Vegas Locals: How Much Is Too Much? 
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    Ok... so i have read online about multiple times where there have been people who constantly wini in casino's and have been kicked out. Recently i have been playing craps and have been doing quite well. i usually pyrimid bet on my numbers so i havent lost yet. i go 1 day a week, and i usually win a couple thousand from each casino every time i go.

    Here's the question. I know vegas kicks people out for cheating, and/or winning. i dont cheat, i risk plenty of money, and i was just wondering at what point do casinos start to track you down and kick you out. i figure i dont have tooo much to worrie about if i only win like 2 thousand from them, but its so consistent and every weekend. Should i be expecting them to say something to me anytime soon?
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  2. #2  
    RX Local Doug's Avatar
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    not with dice ! No worry. BJ is the game that draws "heat".
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  3. #3  
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    Awesome... even if its like 20,000 collectivley each weekend? Although spread out like 2,000 from 10 casinos; you dont think that the consistency of every weekend will draw unique attention?
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  4. #4  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas Junkie
    Awesome... even if its like 20,000 collectivley each weekend? Although spread out like 2,000 from 10 casinos; you dont think that the consistency of every weekend will draw unique attention?
    Not at all ! Casinos trust that craps is in their favor, for good reason. You don't even have to sneak around to 10 casinos. Go to big casino, they will say bring it on ! I think you've been lucky ! Nothing to worry about !
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  5. #5  
    RX Senior jeffksu's Avatar
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    vegas junkie...hey i would like to hook up with next time your in vegas and maybe you can show me ropes on that craps..not trying to get into your business would just like to get to know how to better have chance of winning at the game..thanks for your help in advance...jeffksu
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  6. #6  
    RX Local Doug's Avatar
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    Casinos will not fear you dice guys. Math can't beat craps ! Unless Wong taught you to control dice ? ??

    Craps has high variance. Are you hitting prop bets , or rolling abnormal amounts of 7's. If you are rolling 7's like crazy, I'd take notice after thousands of rolls, if I were boss.

    No math beats craps over time !
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  7. #7  
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    well... its very simple actually. We narrow the probability pretty well to be quite honest. the thing is, we bring like 20,000 to gamble with to cover the table limits.

    Basically, we place bets on the numbers and like i said we pyrimid bet our place bets. we are extreamly diciplined and patient. For instance, we will place 60.00 on the 6 after the point has come out. if it hits we drop down to 30.00 which pays for the 30 left out there, and wins 30 dollars as well. and any time it hits after that is just extra money. If the seven comes out before it hits, then we will place 120, 240, 480 and so on. once it hits again though, we drop back down to 30. It is extreamly unlikely that it seven's out 8 times before it hits a number. obviously we place the 4 & 10 as the same number to even out the odds 50/25.

    And so it wins all the time. My thing is that i would hope vegas is just waiting for the time it does actually go 8 times without hitting and we loose 20k-40k or so. But its a pretty consistent system which makes a significant amount of money, so i worry they just might deny me business. What do you all think?


    PS: about the math over time... its like flipping a coin 50/50 chance (although coins are unevely weighted so it doesn't work out in reality as 50/50). sure one thinks that it is 50/50 each flip, but remember its about the number of consecutive hits. so the first flip is 50/50 to hit heads. but to hit heads again is 50% X 50%= 1/4... and it just decreases each flip. its the same concept with the dice; even if it is not quite 50% odds.
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  8. #8 I always say 
    Pro Handi-Craper My Picks are the shit nhoj's Avatar
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    If you bring enough cash to the craps table you will leave a winner. It seems to be the player that come with 100.00 that loses. got to have staying power to catch the right wave. I like you systemI will have to try it this week in Lake Charles.
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  9. #9  
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    Every bet placed on a craps table has a negative expectation ( with exception of laying odds which has even expectation). No system wins, there are no holes in the math. It's been tried for centuries.

    Sure to be a long thread with the numbers guys backing me up.
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  10. #10  
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    vegas junkie...i read what you posted but still have no clue...are you saying that after the dice are rolled (say a nine) then you place 60bucks on the 6..or do you put money on all numbers...help me please i'm not as dumb as i may sound...thanks jeffksu
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  11. #11  
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    Keep as low a profile as possible, no hootin and hollerin, act like you have been there many times before. Assuming who actually rolls the dice doens't matter to your play then don't be afraid to pass the dice when it is your turn to roll. This will divert even more attention away from you. Keep track of where you play, what shift (day, swing, grave) and rotate casinos accordingly, try to win at as many different spots as possible, if you are doing nothing wrong no one will ever bother you this way. As far as how much to win I would base that on my buy in, buy in for 2 dimes and play an hour or two a 10 dime cash out is not going to draw attention unless you go to the same place all the time. Caution - craps has a fairly steep built in no way to beat house advantage in the long run. The more exotic the bet the higher the vig eg. any 7 holds around 16% for the house I believe.


    Best of luck, wil.
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  12. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas Junkie
    My thing is that i would hope vegas is just waiting for the time it does actually go 8 times without hitting and we loose 20k-40k or so.
    Yup, I think that is exactly what they are waiting for. At some point you must run into table limits. What are they, 5K, 10K? Anyway, in the meantime, I hope you are collecting plenty of RFB.
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  13. #13  
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    i sure hope you're all right! by the way what are RFB's?
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  14. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilheim
    Caution - craps has a fairly steep built in no way to beat house advantage in the long run. The more exotic the bet the higher the vig eg. any 7 holds around 16% for the house I believe.


    Best of luck, wil.
    Thus, unbeatable ! Dice have no memory ! Lucky runs are possible ! Who even claims to live off the game. Poker , sure. BJ and sports yes, but only by most skilled players. Craps is not beatable over time !

    The casino owns the dies, they are true ( correct) to within millionths of an inch.

    Only remote chance of winning long-term is a controlled roll of said dice, a "skill" which few believe even exists !

    I've never heard of a craps player being banned, except with outright cheating.
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas Junkie
    i sure hope you're all right! by the way what are RFB's?
    maybe room/food/ booze ( or broads ? )
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  16. #16  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilheim
    Keep as low a profile as possible, no hootin and hollerin, act like you have been there many times before.


    Geez wil, have you never played craps? Noisy high 5's are part of the game. You want the tracking card to make sure you get all the comps you are entitled to. It's the BJ players that crawl under rocks.

    If you play $60 on the 6 and 8 after the point then a $2000 to $2500 buy in seems about right. The payoff of 7-6 on a 6-5 shot is -1.515% EV that he's Martingaling.
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  17. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas Junkie
    well... its very simple actually. We narrow the probability pretty well to be quite honest. the thing is, we bring like 20,000 to gamble with to cover the table limits.

    Basically, we place bets on the numbers and like i said we pyrimid bet our place bets. we are extreamly diciplined and patient. For instance, we will place 60.00 on the 6 after the point has come out. if it hits we drop down to 30.00 which pays for the 30 left out there, and wins 30 dollars as well. and any time it hits after that is just extra money. If the seven comes out before it hits, then we will place 120, 240, 480 and so on. once it hits again though, we drop back down to 30. It is extreamly unlikely that it seven's out 8 times before it hits a number. obviously we place the 4 & 10 as the same number to even out the odds 50/25.

    And so it wins all the time. My thing is that i would hope vegas is just waiting for the time it does actually go 8 times without hitting and we loose 20k-40k or so. But its a pretty consistent system which makes a significant amount of money, so i worry they just might deny me business. What do you all think?


    PS: about the math over time... its like flipping a coin 50/50 chance (although coins are unevely weighted so it doesn't work out in reality as 50/50). sure one thinks that it is 50/50 each flip, but remember its about the number of consecutive hits. so the first flip is 50/50 to hit heads. but to hit heads again is 50% X 50%= 1/4... and it just decreases each flip. its the same concept with the dice; even if it is not quite 50% odds.
    This sytem gets my 100% casino industry backed seal of approval. Your action is welcomed at all casino establishments. Print out this thread and you are sure to be treated well. Get all the comps you can, you will feel better when you lose.
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  18. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas Junkie
    i sure hope you're all right! by the way what are RFB's?
    Room, food and beverage. How much you get depends on your action and the class of the joint but you should definitely get tracked for comps.

    Edit: comps; complimentaries
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  19. #19  
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    i was afraid at first that getting comps just might let them keep track of my winning and then cut me. but since the general concensus is that my system is less than perfect (i.e. f**ing sucks), whats wrong with it specifically. how many 7 outs have every happened in a row without it hitting a number. and dont i mitigate the probability by doubling the bet till it hits?

    PS: i am under no misconception that i think im right... i just want to understand why i am soooo wrong!
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  20. #20  
    RX Senior Mr. Smith's Avatar
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    Oh boy, did this guy actually say if you flip a coin and it comes up heads, on the next flip the chance of heads again is now only 25%?
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  21. #21  
    RX Local wilheim's Avatar
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    Geez wil, have you never played craps? Noisy high 5's are part of the game
    I've played some craps during the 15 years I lived in Vegas but the point was Junkie seemed to be concerned about being tracked and kicked out so imo a low profile would serve him well. Comps were never mentioned in his original post and are another subject than the one addressed early in the thread. FWIW noisy high fives while fun are for tourists if anybody cares.


    wil.
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  22. #22  
    RX Local Doug's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas Junkie

    PS: i am under no misconception that i think im right... i just want to understand why i am soooo wrong!
    because there isn't a single bet on a craps table with positive expectation, nor any combination of bets .

    Quit while you are ahead, or do it for fun ! Ever wonder why touts don't tout craps ?
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  23. #23  
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    mr. smith - i could not believe the same thing. this is a martindale system...sooner or later, you will get crushed by the table limit, sir. good luck while the good fortune lasts...
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  24. #24  
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    i understand that when looked at individually it bets are not in my favor. but since i double the bet, it exponentially decreases the odds for the house.

    i.e. the coin theory. (This way i can answer both of you). sure lets just say 50% to keep it simple for MR. Smith. Sure each individual time we flip a coin the odds are only 50% (so your point that the house always has better odds). but since i double my bet i always win my money back and the original bet when it finally hits. so when it sevens out, then i double it, then double that if it drops, then double it when that drops.

    the coin thing: sure its 50% each time. but the probabilty of heads 10X in a row is much less than 50% because you have to multiply the probabilty of each flip with one another. so heads 1 time 50%. but then twice is .25 because its 1/2 X 1/2 the probabilty because it has to do it consecutivly.

    so over time dont we win the odds, unless the miricle happens that it 7's out soo many times consecutifly that we cant cover it anymore (i.e. 8 times)
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  25. #25  
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    so i guess its clear that over time the table limit is what is going to evidently kill me. now... it really seems that plenty of you have played craps for an extreamly long time. now the question is, what is the most amount of consecutive point, seven out have you seen happen consecutivly?
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