I don't play baseball after the All-Star break and that won't change this year. I play dogs exclusively until late May, and even then don't play much chalk. My baseball plays are always smaller than any of my other sports. I've also noticed in my betting logs that I start to lose around mid-May for some reason, so this year I may start to wrap up my season even earlier.
Play lightly, mostly dogs and small chalk until May. Start loading up in May. Small tweak I will try to use this year is revamp my defense considerations, especially for totals. Bad defensive games cost me a number of unders last year and I played the under 78% of my total bets last year.
The best way to win in baseball is parleys. This is the only sports where parleys is the smart bet. Insteed of taking strait dogs, you will come out more ahead at the end of the year by taking 2 favorites and using a parley.
A good example
NY Yanks Johnson -200
vs
Balt S Ponson
Chi cubs Prior -200
vs
K wells pittsburg
This parley is very high % and it pays even money.
You will cash that bet a whole lot more often than taking a +200 dog strait up. I have never had a losing season in baseball. I get my whole bankroll that I give back during football season using this method.
A good example
NY Yanks Johnson -200
vs
Balt S Ponson
Chi cubs Prior -200
vs
K wells pittsburg
This parley is very high % and it pays even money.
You will cash that bet a whole lot more often than taking a +200 dog strait up. I have never had a losing season in baseball. I get my whole bankroll that I give back during football season using this method.
It's such a long season. I just try to keep on top of things, follow a select few of trends I've come across, and let the chips fall where they may. It's like any sport you wager on. You start to find a groove with it as the season progresses. Obviously, a majority of my bets are dogs, but won't limit myself to just those type of plays.
I bet from the second time through the rotation up until the all star game. I bet Dogs on the ML and Favs n the RL All in all I will have onaround 80% of all games excluding sundays, where I limit myself to 4 games only. I know betting this many games in very unorthodox, but the last 7 years I have been very fortunate with this style.
Glaken- Did you get my email?
Glaken- Did you get my email?
aceduecetrey said:
No I didn't please send again glaken@hotmail.com
If you sent it tonight I may have missed, we are having killer thunderstorms and the satellite is in and out.
With baseball I found that the one thing most important is hard work. Most cappers have a routine when capping baseball (or any sport) I am no exception. I find the harder I work and the deeper I dig into the particulars of any game the more success I have. I like to take the entire lineups for both teams and go through a number of steps. Take the lead off hitter of the visitor for a single example. First I check what side of the plate he bats from (say he is a lefty) then lookup how the opposing pitchers does against leftys, then is record against the actual hitter himself, then look at his recent form especially on the road and especially against the type of pitcher he is facing that day (say a righty). I do this with both lineups breaking everything down by situation righty vs lefty, road or home, day or night, I look for opponets batting average against - noting the team as a whole and each individual starter's batting averages against each starting pitcher and break everything down to lefty vs righty, lefty vs lefty and righty vs righty. When I am done I can come up with a fairly good idea what batters will be dangerous that day and what batters are likely to struggle, same with starting pitchers. There is a lot more involved (bullpens, current team form, the price of the game and much more) but the point is the less work I put in the less success I have. I guess I am a little off topic because I am talking about capping instead of betting which is the word used in the topic. My betting will remain the same as usual: a percentage of bankroll unit system. 1 unit .5%, 2 units 1%, 3 units 1.5%, and 4 units 2% (rare). I have no intention of changing that aspect of my baseball betting procdures. Again the more I work the better I do. Capping baseball is for me the hardest work but yields the best results of any sport I bet. I would love to find some software that using the right database be able to do all this research by computer. I know what stats are important in day to day baseball handicapping but have no idea how to create a program that would only require entering the team and starting lineups to produce the information I painstakingly extract by hand. Umpires are also a minor factor as is weather.
wil.
wil.
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I'm going to try an experiment betting polish middles on opposing teams. That is where I will take the ML on one team and the -1.5 RL on the other team. I try to calculate the line to see if it will pay back for those times when the one team wins by 1 run.
I tried this a bit last year but based the value on league averages. This year I will try to refine it so that I find value on a team individually, combined with a totals line above a certain number. I figure those games will be less likely to have the one team win by 1 run. I will then shop multiple books instead of just one.
I tried this a bit last year but based the value on league averages. This year I will try to refine it so that I find value on a team individually, combined with a totals line above a certain number. I figure those games will be less likely to have the one team win by 1 run. I will then shop multiple books instead of just one.
