betting on mlb season win total...which is better

blueedwards · Feb 22, 2005

i want the under. should i take:

under 85.5 +106

or

under 86 -110

i think 85.5 is better. want opinions.

thanks

MadCapper · Feb 22, 2005

haha depends on which team

I would take the 85.5

sherman · Feb 22, 2005

i would take the 86 -110 WITHOUT question......

wonder what the pros will say....

REDEYE · Feb 22, 2005

I've been doing totals for alot of years and to me its a no Brainer.-86. If your getting up around -120 I would say no, but I like more games to play with,even if its a half game. You might have to hedge the play on Final weekend and the more room you have the better you are

Woody0 · Feb 22, 2005

I look at it this way. At 87 wins both lose. So at 85 wins with 2 games left you are on the bubble where the difference becomes important. The question then is; does the 16 cents juice that you save divided by the probabilty of this occuring give you enough money to hedge so that the difference between 85.5 and 86 is immaterial?

Another approach is to split your bet between the two options.

102 @ +106 -> 210 and 110 @ -110 -> 210 sums to 212 @ -102 is the juice midpoint example.

sherman · Feb 22, 2005

Woody0 said:
I look at it this way. At 87 wins both lose. So at 85 wins with 2 games left you are on the bubble where the difference becomes important. The question then is; does the 16 cents juice that you save divided by the probabilty of this occuring give you enough money to hedge so that the difference between 85.5 and 86 is immaterial?

Another approach is to split your bet between the two options.

102 @ +106 -> 210 and 110 @ -110 -> 210 sums to 212 @ -102 is the juice midpoint example.

i like the idea of splitting bets sometimes, i just don't in this case...

VaultedTreehouse · Feb 22, 2005

Take the + juice. What are the odds it might be a push anyway? Balls out is the only way to go.

beetman · Feb 24, 2005

I'm pretty sure these two lines are almost identical in most circumstances. In my experience, a half of a win in baseball is worth about 15 cents in the even money range. The one exception could be if the game is so severely mislined it's less likely to land on the 86 than a normal game lined at 85.5/86, in which case I would prefer the under 85.5 +106.