<CENTER>WSEX INSIDER Vol. 1, No. 2 (Feb 25, 2005)</CENTER>
The NFL: the Super Bowl and ’04-’05 Season in Review
We were all set to trumpet the collapse of the Patriots dynasty and give a little dig to the New England faithful when we remembered one thing: the Pats actually won the game. It sure didn’t seem that way at WSEX, though, as an astonishing three out of four pointspread bets came in on New England, converting us into diehard Eagles fans, at least for the night.
But happy as we were with Philadelphia’s backdoor cover, teasers were the game’s main storyline for us – and the ending wasn’t a happy one. With the Super Bowl side and total both landing just inside the crucial six-point “collar” around the closing lines (-7.0 and 47.0), pretty much anyone who bet a teaser collected.
Teasers are a particularly volatile form of liability for us, since the entire category – from six-point to eight-point teasers – tends to win or lose as a group. In this year’s game, for example, our loss on teasers was almost equal to our straight-wager win, even though teasers accounted for well under 10% of wagering handle.
Game props also took on greater importance than usual. During the regular season, football props yield little joy, with big losses on the occasional weak number neutralizing their higher theoretical edge.
But the Super Bowl was different. Widespread betting interest makes it the one game each year where we’re happy to write 20% of our game handle in prop action. And for the first time in four years, results fell unexpectedly well, led by the “Player Totals” grouping, where three big line moves all came up empty: Dillon to rush more than 95 yards; McNabb to rush for more than 29.5, and McNabb to complete fewer than 21 passes.
Finally, both halftimes went well for us, continuing a season-long trend. Halftimes are frequently overlooked when assessing a book’s performance, but they can account for 20% to 25% of NFL handle these days. For the entire season, in fact, halftimes delivered a greater gross win for WSEX than full-game wagers – which just goes to show the importance of having a deep bench, even for a sportsbook.
Golf: the West Coast Swing
With the NFL season safely in the bag, the focus at WSEX turns to the secondary sports: pro and college basketball, naturally, but also golf.
It’s a little-appreciated fact, but a lively golf interactive can account for almost as much wagering action as a full Mon-Fri card of NBA, or even college hoops. So we pay a little more attention to the PGA than most shops – and so far this year the story has been one of narrow escapes.
One of our more dangerous golf bettors – known around the office as “the Oracle” – treads water in other sports, but has an uncanny ability to load up pre-tournament on players who run straight to the top of the leaderboard.
This year, he’s already been denied twice in the final round by Phil Mickelson, who saved us from huge payouts on both Steve Flesch (140-1 in the Phoenix) and Mike Weir (32-1 at Pebble Beach). Last week at the Nissan, the Oracle was done in by the weather, when Chad Campbell – his hot choice at 130-1 odds – held the joint lead at the end of Round 2 when the tournament was called. We don’t know how he does it, but as the saying goes, “This guy is good.”
No More Hockey: Hooray!
The 2005 NHL hockey season has been dying a slow death, but now that it’s officially over, listen for the sound of popping champagne corks (or at least Coors twist-offs) from down in Antigua.
Last year, hockey returned a sub-two percent hold, and truth be told, we’d have settled for that again if the NHL season had somehow sputtered to life. We keep waiting for the retail hockey action to show up, but instead all we get are crafty Scandinavians and seemingly psychic Canadians. So let them cancel the season: we’re headed for the therapy room to soak off last season’s bruises . . . and sending our hockey linesmakers to the penalty box.
Oscar Night This Sunday
By now, you’ve probably read half a dozen Oscar rundowns, with every pundit weighing in on why Scorcese is finally due for a Best Director nod or how Hilary Swank doesn’t have the stature to win that second Oscar.
But to us the interesting thing is how the odds move so dramatically, as it were, despite the lack of hard information. The first phase of line moves is fairly understandable, coming in response to the opening box office of hyped contenders. Alexander, believe it or not, was actually the Best Picture favorite before its release; now it’s standing alongside Catwoman as a favorite to win Saturday’s “Razzie” for the year’s worst picture.
Next come the odds adjustments after the major awards season, stretching from the Golden Globes to the SAG Awards. This year, for example, the odds on both Morgan Freeman and Cate Blanchett plummeted from even money to 1-2 on the heels of their SAG victories, even though SAG winners in the supporting categories are only batting .500 at the Oscars over the past decade.
Most intriguing of all, however, are the wild odds swings that occur during the telecast itself. It’s become a WSEX tradition to keep the Oscar markets open through the entire ceremony, envelope by envelope, and bettors use this as an opportunity to sniff out clues from earlier awards. A notable example was The Pianist’s huge surge in the Best Picture market following wins by Adrien Brody for Best Actor and Roman Polanski for Best Director. So come Sunday, fasten your seatbelts, and keep a close eye on the Best Picture market as it reacts to the fortunes of Morgan Freeman, Hilary Swank, and Clint Eastwood in the early going.
Keep an eye out for the next edition of the WSEX Insider Report. Feel free to write us with any topics you'd like to see covered, and best of luck in all your action.
Regards, World Sports Exchange
The NFL: the Super Bowl and ’04-’05 Season in Review
We were all set to trumpet the collapse of the Patriots dynasty and give a little dig to the New England faithful when we remembered one thing: the Pats actually won the game. It sure didn’t seem that way at WSEX, though, as an astonishing three out of four pointspread bets came in on New England, converting us into diehard Eagles fans, at least for the night.
But happy as we were with Philadelphia’s backdoor cover, teasers were the game’s main storyline for us – and the ending wasn’t a happy one. With the Super Bowl side and total both landing just inside the crucial six-point “collar” around the closing lines (-7.0 and 47.0), pretty much anyone who bet a teaser collected.
Teasers are a particularly volatile form of liability for us, since the entire category – from six-point to eight-point teasers – tends to win or lose as a group. In this year’s game, for example, our loss on teasers was almost equal to our straight-wager win, even though teasers accounted for well under 10% of wagering handle.
Game props also took on greater importance than usual. During the regular season, football props yield little joy, with big losses on the occasional weak number neutralizing their higher theoretical edge.
But the Super Bowl was different. Widespread betting interest makes it the one game each year where we’re happy to write 20% of our game handle in prop action. And for the first time in four years, results fell unexpectedly well, led by the “Player Totals” grouping, where three big line moves all came up empty: Dillon to rush more than 95 yards; McNabb to rush for more than 29.5, and McNabb to complete fewer than 21 passes.
Finally, both halftimes went well for us, continuing a season-long trend. Halftimes are frequently overlooked when assessing a book’s performance, but they can account for 20% to 25% of NFL handle these days. For the entire season, in fact, halftimes delivered a greater gross win for WSEX than full-game wagers – which just goes to show the importance of having a deep bench, even for a sportsbook.
Golf: the West Coast Swing
With the NFL season safely in the bag, the focus at WSEX turns to the secondary sports: pro and college basketball, naturally, but also golf.
It’s a little-appreciated fact, but a lively golf interactive can account for almost as much wagering action as a full Mon-Fri card of NBA, or even college hoops. So we pay a little more attention to the PGA than most shops – and so far this year the story has been one of narrow escapes.
One of our more dangerous golf bettors – known around the office as “the Oracle” – treads water in other sports, but has an uncanny ability to load up pre-tournament on players who run straight to the top of the leaderboard.
This year, he’s already been denied twice in the final round by Phil Mickelson, who saved us from huge payouts on both Steve Flesch (140-1 in the Phoenix) and Mike Weir (32-1 at Pebble Beach). Last week at the Nissan, the Oracle was done in by the weather, when Chad Campbell – his hot choice at 130-1 odds – held the joint lead at the end of Round 2 when the tournament was called. We don’t know how he does it, but as the saying goes, “This guy is good.”
No More Hockey: Hooray!
The 2005 NHL hockey season has been dying a slow death, but now that it’s officially over, listen for the sound of popping champagne corks (or at least Coors twist-offs) from down in Antigua.
Last year, hockey returned a sub-two percent hold, and truth be told, we’d have settled for that again if the NHL season had somehow sputtered to life. We keep waiting for the retail hockey action to show up, but instead all we get are crafty Scandinavians and seemingly psychic Canadians. So let them cancel the season: we’re headed for the therapy room to soak off last season’s bruises . . . and sending our hockey linesmakers to the penalty box.
Oscar Night This Sunday
By now, you’ve probably read half a dozen Oscar rundowns, with every pundit weighing in on why Scorcese is finally due for a Best Director nod or how Hilary Swank doesn’t have the stature to win that second Oscar.
But to us the interesting thing is how the odds move so dramatically, as it were, despite the lack of hard information. The first phase of line moves is fairly understandable, coming in response to the opening box office of hyped contenders. Alexander, believe it or not, was actually the Best Picture favorite before its release; now it’s standing alongside Catwoman as a favorite to win Saturday’s “Razzie” for the year’s worst picture.
Next come the odds adjustments after the major awards season, stretching from the Golden Globes to the SAG Awards. This year, for example, the odds on both Morgan Freeman and Cate Blanchett plummeted from even money to 1-2 on the heels of their SAG victories, even though SAG winners in the supporting categories are only batting .500 at the Oscars over the past decade.
Most intriguing of all, however, are the wild odds swings that occur during the telecast itself. It’s become a WSEX tradition to keep the Oscar markets open through the entire ceremony, envelope by envelope, and bettors use this as an opportunity to sniff out clues from earlier awards. A notable example was The Pianist’s huge surge in the Best Picture market following wins by Adrien Brody for Best Actor and Roman Polanski for Best Director. So come Sunday, fasten your seatbelts, and keep a close eye on the Best Picture market as it reacts to the fortunes of Morgan Freeman, Hilary Swank, and Clint Eastwood in the early going.
Keep an eye out for the next edition of the WSEX Insider Report. Feel free to write us with any topics you'd like to see covered, and best of luck in all your action.
Regards, World Sports Exchange
