Ron Raymond’s Vs. Lefties Theory
There’s a normal public perception that when a team is going up against a left-handed starter, the opposing team is at a disadvantage and totals bettors, normally think the UNDER is the route to go when playing the O/U. Granted, the southpaws do have some uniqueness to them and it’s even a greater advantage if you can throw out a left handed stopper for the final out. But lets look into the numbers and see if there should be a special advantage given to left-handed hurlers.
Since 1997, when a team is a home favorite vs. a left-handed pitcher, they are 2042-1479 SU for 57.9%. Also, the O/U was 1708 favoring the OVER and the UNDER came in1659 times with 454 pushes. However, when a team is a home underdog vs. a lefty, they are 609-918-1 SU for 39.8% and the O/U total came in at 724O-735U-69P. I know you’re probably saying, where did that tie come from, but according to my numbers, the White Sox and Twins played to a 1-1 tie on October 3rd, 1999. Now, as far as road teams vs. southpaws do, road favorites are 743-548 SU for 57.5% with the O/U coming in at 614O-619U-58P. It’s tougher to support a road underdog vs. a lefty, as they are 1469-2208 SU for 39.9%, while the O/U is 1810O-1716U-151P.
In brief, home and road favorites have done ok vs. left-handed starters, as the favorites have a combined record of 2785-2027. Plus, there’s a slight edge to the OVER for the favorites, as the OVER came in 2322 times compared to 2278 for the UNDER with 512 pushes.
Here’s a list of teams to watch for this 2005 baseball season when they are in certain roles vs. left-handed starters. In fact, when doing the analysis of the home and road underdogs, what surprised me a bit was the lack of teams with winning records in this spot. Considering it’s a 30-team league, I assumed there would be more teams with a winning record, but you will see there are only a handful of teams with a winning record vs. lefties.
<b>Home Favorites</b>
· Atlanta: 91-50 SU
· Florida: 60-36 SU
· NYY : 116-57 SU
· Oakland : 94-48 SU
· San Francisco: 100-37 SU
· Seattle: 93-52 SU
· K.C.: 49O-29U-3P
<b>Home Underdogs</b>
· Chi Wsox: 18-16-1 SU
· Colorado: 23-22 SU
· Houston: 2-15 SU
· NYY: 3-2 SU
<b>Road Favorites</b>
· Arizona: 42-25 SU
· Atlanta : 62-31 SU
· Cincinnati : 18-8 SU
· L.A.Dodgers : 41-26 SU
· Oakland: 40-28 SU
· Pittsburgh: 3O7U2P
<b>Road Underdogs</b>
· Atlanta : 39-27 SU
· NYY : 26-21 SU
· Florida: 70O-55U-8P
· K.C.: 65O-95U-6P
· San Diego: 89O-68-7P
In conclusion, it proves the publics perception of Lefties vs. teams is a myth in certain aspects and maybe a rule of thumb to approach a left handed starter this season, is to take the favorites and the over. And, if you feel risky, take the dog and the under.
Next article: "How a team does coming off a game 4 series win."
There’s a normal public perception that when a team is going up against a left-handed starter, the opposing team is at a disadvantage and totals bettors, normally think the UNDER is the route to go when playing the O/U. Granted, the southpaws do have some uniqueness to them and it’s even a greater advantage if you can throw out a left handed stopper for the final out. But lets look into the numbers and see if there should be a special advantage given to left-handed hurlers.
Since 1997, when a team is a home favorite vs. a left-handed pitcher, they are 2042-1479 SU for 57.9%. Also, the O/U was 1708 favoring the OVER and the UNDER came in1659 times with 454 pushes. However, when a team is a home underdog vs. a lefty, they are 609-918-1 SU for 39.8% and the O/U total came in at 724O-735U-69P. I know you’re probably saying, where did that tie come from, but according to my numbers, the White Sox and Twins played to a 1-1 tie on October 3rd, 1999. Now, as far as road teams vs. southpaws do, road favorites are 743-548 SU for 57.5% with the O/U coming in at 614O-619U-58P. It’s tougher to support a road underdog vs. a lefty, as they are 1469-2208 SU for 39.9%, while the O/U is 1810O-1716U-151P.
In brief, home and road favorites have done ok vs. left-handed starters, as the favorites have a combined record of 2785-2027. Plus, there’s a slight edge to the OVER for the favorites, as the OVER came in 2322 times compared to 2278 for the UNDER with 512 pushes.
Here’s a list of teams to watch for this 2005 baseball season when they are in certain roles vs. left-handed starters. In fact, when doing the analysis of the home and road underdogs, what surprised me a bit was the lack of teams with winning records in this spot. Considering it’s a 30-team league, I assumed there would be more teams with a winning record, but you will see there are only a handful of teams with a winning record vs. lefties.
<b>Home Favorites</b>
· Atlanta: 91-50 SU
· Florida: 60-36 SU
· NYY : 116-57 SU
· Oakland : 94-48 SU
· San Francisco: 100-37 SU
· Seattle: 93-52 SU
· K.C.: 49O-29U-3P
<b>Home Underdogs</b>
· Chi Wsox: 18-16-1 SU
· Colorado: 23-22 SU
· Houston: 2-15 SU
· NYY: 3-2 SU
<b>Road Favorites</b>
· Arizona: 42-25 SU
· Atlanta : 62-31 SU
· Cincinnati : 18-8 SU
· L.A.Dodgers : 41-26 SU
· Oakland: 40-28 SU
· Pittsburgh: 3O7U2P
<b>Road Underdogs</b>
· Atlanta : 39-27 SU
· NYY : 26-21 SU
· Florida: 70O-55U-8P
· K.C.: 65O-95U-6P
· San Diego: 89O-68-7P
In conclusion, it proves the publics perception of Lefties vs. teams is a myth in certain aspects and maybe a rule of thumb to approach a left handed starter this season, is to take the favorites and the over. And, if you feel risky, take the dog and the under.
Next article: "How a team does coming off a game 4 series win."
