Paying for Picks . Would like everyone to chime in ...

WorldNumberOne · Mar 10, 2005

I know the consensus is never pay for picks and every tout is a scam artist, but ...

Example:

What if a well know poster , liked by everyone, posted his NBA totals selections for 3 or 4 years and was tracked .

He posted a fair amount of picks , lets say 150 a year .

He was able to hit 60 to 62 % every year.

He then decided to sell his picks . Lets say for $ 49.00 a month . Reasonable price.

Would you sign up ?

Dont say ya i would sign up and post the picks for everyone to see.. Keep it real..

bigbet1234 · Mar 10, 2005

No, do your own homework, and make your own. That is how I do it, and always will

BB

Groucho · Mar 10, 2005

If someone was hitting 60-62 % over a statistically significant number of picks (the 600 in this example would qualify), then it would be a predictable long-term pattern that would easily be worth the kind of money you are talking about.

Because I pay no attention to posting forum cappers, I would probably never be aware that such a thing was going on. But if I was made aware - and really could be made to trust that the information was accurate - and he wasn't using something very close to my own system and therefore wouldn't just be providing me with the winners I'm already getting - yes, I would pay.

60-62% translates to a lot of money. I don't need such a service, and it's not something I devote even a tiny bit of energy hunting for, but if something like this simplistic situation was staring me in the face, my attitude would be, more money never hurts.

JudgeWapner · Mar 10, 2005

I personally wouldn't pay. Just have never known anyone to get rich by using a tout. Or even make money.

Fishhead · Mar 10, 2005

One should pay at least DOUBLE for somebody that could monitor lines for you and give you the best possible line on every game.

Hell, thats worth TRIPLE the price of what any tout can provide.

NEVER PAY FOR SELECTIONS!

---FISH---
RX Advisor

WorldNumberOne · Mar 10, 2005

i equate my example to someone who has some money to invest. they want to put it into the stock market.

they dont know any brokers.

they are talking to a trusted friend who tells them about their broker who is quite good and has made them some money.

or someone who has no time to do their own homework but loves to have some action and wants to make plays.

they know of a guy who has proven themselves to be trusted and has won over a decent period of time..

Rainbow · Mar 10, 2005

World Number One said:
i equate my example to someone who has some money to invest. they want to put it into the stock market.

they dont know any brokers.

they are talking to a trusted friend who tells them about their broker who is quite good and has made them some money.

or someone who has no time to do their own homework but loves to have some action and wants to make plays.

they know of a guy who has proven themselves to be trusted and has won over a decent period of time..

Agreed 100% thats not a tout. but me myself I dont pay for picks.

Fishhead · Mar 10, 2005

World Number One said:
i equate my example to someone who has some money to invest. they want to put it into the stock market.

they dont know any brokers.

they are talking to a trusted friend who tells them about their broker who is quite good and has made them some money.

or someone who has no time to do their own homework but loves to have some action and wants to make plays.

they know of a guy who has proven themselves to be trusted and has won over a decent period of time..

Thats super if that person ACTUALLY places wagers for the both of them.

Big difference than just releasing a game.

LINE SHOPPING IS 2-3 TIMES MORE VALUABLE THAN PICKING A ANY SIDE.

---FISH---
RX Advisor/moderater

aceduecetrey · Mar 10, 2005

If the person is giving you value for what you are paying, I do not see it as being a problem. What I mean is if the person is giving you good solid information and not just saying take the Raiders today, then I do not see it as a problem. A example of this would be North Coast's Power Sweep. I subscribe to it and I have for the last 6 years. I do it more for the writeups that he provides than for his selections. I do not call his phone lines for his picks, I merely read what he has to say about each of the teams and I use that information to help formulate my selections.

Rainbow · Mar 10, 2005

The only thing I"m a little puzzled with is, everybody person I know thats successful betting doesnt think about selling their information. its no need to. a person thats makes a living betting never lets anyone know how smart he is. bottom line succesful betters dont sell their picks.

Groucho · Mar 10, 2005

I agree somewhat with Fish's concept but it's a bit off topic. Just because there's something even better than something which is great, doesn't mean that you should shun the thing which is merely great.

Having 60-62% winners on point spreads would qualify as great. And sure, combining it with good line-shopping would only help. (And to be honest, I feel you're overstating the difficulty of finding the best lines. It's not THAT hard. You just look around a bit.)

My early impression is that people are choosing to ignore the question being asked and are answering a different question which is more harmonious with our experiences:

Do you think this scenario is likely to happen?

I agree that the answer to that is no.

But it's a hypothetical question. If someone really could pick that many winners over that many picks, IMO you would be mad to say never.

WorldNumberOne · Mar 10, 2005

saying " never pay for picks " puzzles me..

would you pay a stock broker who has a proven record over several years ?

even if you never trusted a broker before ?

having someone to find the best line for a person who wouldnt know what to do with that " best line " would be worthless ..

i'm talking about a guy who's day is full . he has some extra money to invest and is loaded up at pinnacle or where ever...

why wouldnt he pay for a service that has won ?

and why shouldnt a successful handicapper try to maximize his take by offering his knowledge ?

JudgeWapner · Mar 10, 2005

I think there is more accountability for a broker.

aceduecetrey · Mar 10, 2005

My problem is after being in he business for 7 years and knowing the many people who are in the business, I know the time and effort that they out into their selections. Almost none. I will promise you that almost all of the people here (OMT, Panther, Glaken, Tate, I could go on and on) put in considerably more time than any of the handicappers that sell picks do. That is why thye do not offer writeups (most of them) and if you question them, they will not answer you. Like I said there are exceptions, but they are few and far between. No matter, if the person was 60% for the last 3 years, if they did not offer some insight as to why they are betting the game then they are most likely full of it.

Fishhead · Mar 10, 2005

Folks, seriously.

What is the BEST winning percentage a TOUT could have by NOT line shopping?

Over the course of 3+ years.

MAYBE 55%................TOPS...........AND THATS MAYBE ONE IN TWENTY THAT COULD DO THAT!

NOW YOUR GOING TO ADD A FEE ON TOP OF THIS?

Cmon, RX readers are smarter than this.

---FISH---
RX Advisor/Mod

cincy_ · Mar 10, 2005

Judge Wapner said:
I think there is more accountability for a broker.

Really?

At least with a tout, he tells you what to play.

With a broker, he might have a guy from Enron that gave him a consulting assignment worth $50,000. To pay the guy back, the broker takes YOUR money and buys ENRON stock with it.

This ACTUALLY happened, by the way.

D2bets · Mar 10, 2005

Never say never, but you have to look at the fee for picks as additional vig to overcome. If the fee is $49/month and from that $49 you're going to place 100 wagers of $1,000 each then it isn't much of a concern. The vig is fairly negligible.

If however the fee is $30 per pick and you're going to then wager $200 on it then, well, then you are a moron.

Rainbow · Mar 10, 2005

I dont play the Stock, seen too many crashes over the years. Successful winning betting is no need to sell his picks, if he is that stupid he is hurting nobody but his self. he would ruin the market if he is successful. thats the main reson they dont sell them.

WorldNumberOne · Mar 10, 2005

fair enough .. you can always turn a hypothetical into something that cant possibly exist..

i could certainly add to the example and have all the clients loaded up at 5 or 6 books so when that best line comes out on the side were on , the call goes out..

DarrylParsons · Mar 10, 2005

I don't pay for picks. Never have, never will. Same is true for investment advice. Why? Because I've got my own ideas about how the world works, and that includes a section on sports and another on markets. I like to read what others have to say and often I can learn from them, but in the end I must assimilate all that and come up with the best possible theory based on everything I know.

When I blindly follow someone else's picks, it's like eating his leftovers. Even if he's a better chef than me, my original cooking will still taste better than his leftovers. And if I know he's a better chef than me, I want to find out why and do my best to close the gap. Just eating his cooking every day won't get me ahead in any way. I've got to talk to him and pick his brain, mix in some of my stuff and try to be better than him eventually.