Lets talk about this handicapping aspect called line shopping for a minute..

WorldNumberOne · Mar 10, 2005

I am looking to learn a little more about how valuable this part of your investing really is..

I undersand the reduced juice part and the money that can be saved over time playing into - 105 and - 107 instead of - 110 or whatever else..

About the number itself . How many of your plays did that shopping save the day on. Whether it be turning a loss into a push or turning a push into a win..

It seems to me that the number of games that the line mattered when its all said and done is minimal..

I'm either really right , or really wrong.. Line didnt matter..

Hoping for some good info..

REDEYE · Mar 10, 2005

I believe my profit for each month is directly related to shopping.I can't see how a serious player wouldn't shop.

Rainbow · Mar 10, 2005

Remember one thing if you beat the line you beat the game. if the Syndicate lays -7 on a COLLEGE HOOP game and the line goes to 8, and I follow him all the time and I lay the 8 my money isnt worth 10cents on a dollar. lets go to college football if he bets a total over 41.5 and it goes to 43 and I bet over 43 I have no chance in along run I will win some games betting the bad number but in a long run I have no chance.

DarrylParsons · Mar 10, 2005

If you're hitting 45% or 60% it won't make much difference as a percentage of your overall result, but if you're picking 51-52% winners, it will probably make the difference between winning and losing.

assassin · Mar 10, 2005

Line shopping is HUGE

Even looking at non-reduced shops you can often find a cheaper price.

I got 2 second half lines tonight at even instead of -110. Over time this saves a lot.

You can also find the line you like. I had Boston -9.5 2nd half last night, had I bet the 10 everywhere else I push, instead I won. So that was $500 in the bank instead of nothing.

Same applies to ML, you gotta shop for the best line you like. But don't just bet a good number, you have to have an +EV for the play with the number/line as well.

Just my experience.

Doug · Mar 10, 2005

I kept track of it about 2 years ago. That half-point shopping is huge. It makes the difference between winning and losing ! I tracked specifically when a free half mattered. I'm convinced !

I'll blindy take any 2-point middle ( at -110 ) on a side in any version of Basketball. Rare to find that in real time. Even 1.5 points is profitable with lower vig on one end, or both.

coconutman · Mar 10, 2005

I dont play with offshore just a bookie.. The good aspect of that is when the lines are out ... and afterwards there is a large line movement like yesterday on Pho... u still have -4' knowing that the line currently is -10

Doug · Mar 10, 2005

coconutman said:
I dont play with offshore just a bookie.. The good aspect of that is when the lines are out ... and afterwards there is a large line movement like yesterday on Pho... u still have -4' knowing that the line currently is -10

How does that differ from offshore ? If Pinny gives me -4' -105, I still have that line if it moves.

coconutman · Mar 10, 2005

Yes but how are you gonna know that it will move that much. I meant after the fact when the line already moved 5' points to -10 i still have it at 4' untill game time. So if you didin't get it early enugh you have to lay the -10 or take the +10. It works both ways.

Doug · Mar 10, 2005

I still don't see why a local is better, which you implied, if I read you right. I'd prefer a top book to a local.

REDEYE · Mar 10, 2005

I played New Mexico big 2nd half at - 2 1/2 at Hollywood. No other shop had 2 1/2. I won my play by the half point. Shopping made the difference

arty:

coconutman · Mar 10, 2005

Im not trying to say that i prefer a local. But at certain situations you have some advantages, but usually you don't. Lines stay the way they were released and it sucks most of the time because the line on pinnacle drops on a game that i like and it doesen't with a local. Slowly im trying to maybe pick some games that there have large line moves and maybe grab that line with the local and have those 2 extra points. Anyone has any imput on this?

D2bets · Mar 10, 2005

World Number One said:
I am looking to learn a little more about how valuable this part of your investing really is..

I undersand the reduced juice part and the money that can be saved over time playing into - 105 and - 107 instead of - 110 or whatever else..

About the number itself . How many of your plays did that shopping save the day on. Whether it be turning a loss into a push or turning a push into a win..

It seems to me that the number of games that the line mattered when its all said and done is minimal..

I'm either really right , or really wrong.. Line didnt matter..

Hoping for some good info..

It might matter in 2 or 3 games out of 100, but that can easily be all the difference between profit and loss. 3 wins instead of losses is the difference between a vig loser at 51% and a winner at 54%.

Doug · Mar 11, 2005

coconutman said:
Im not trying to say that i prefer a local. But at certain situations you have some advantages, but usually you don't. Lines stay the way they were released and it sucks most of the time because the line on pinnacle drops on a game that i like and it doesen't with a local. Slowly im trying to maybe pick some games that there have large line moves and maybe grab that line with the local and have those 2 extra points. Anyone has any imput on this?

You can middle the urine out of the local if he's using the morning newspaper and holding those lines. You'll beat him silly !

nimue77 · Mar 11, 2005

World Number One said:
I am looking to learn a little more about how valuable this part of your investing really is..

I undersand the reduced juice part and the money that can be saved over time playing into - 105 and - 107 instead of - 110 or whatever else..

About the number itself . How many of your plays did that shopping save the day on. Whether it be turning a loss into a push or turning a push into a win..

It seems to me that the number of games that the line mattered when its all said and done is minimal..

I'm either really right , or really wrong.. Line didnt matter..

Hoping for some good info..

Minimal? I guess that depends on how you define minimal....if it makes a difference in one out of 15 games that is plenty....

nimue77 · Mar 11, 2005

Darryl Parsons said:
If you're hitting 45% or 60% it won't make much difference as a percentage of your overall result, but if you're picking 51-52% winners, it will probably make the difference between winning and losing.

Huh? You pulled this answer out of your ass....no offense.

acw · Mar 11, 2005

nimue77,

Darryl is right. Many guys out there can only win, because they line shop.

Darryl,

Over the years I have kind of started to hate all these line shoppers. I must admit that me too I started off playing that way, but these days I rather see one big government monopolised market offering 20 cent lines, so only the real handicappers can win.

Doug · Mar 11, 2005

Few could beat -120 both ways, if any, unless line held solid, then it's just a matter of fewer bets for more $$$. That will never happen !

sherman · Mar 11, 2005

acw said:
nimue77,

Over the years I have kind of started to hate all these line shoppers. I must admit that me too I started off playing that way, but these days I rather see one big government monopolised market offering 20 cent lines, so only the real handicappers can win.

huh?:think2:

DarrylParsons · Mar 11, 2005

nimue77 said:
Huh? You pulled this answer out of your ass....no offense.

No, my ass doesn't know anything about percentages.

If you hit 60% winners, then getting better lines will make you slightly more of a winner.

If you hit 45% winners, then getting better lines will make you slightly less of a loser.

If you hit 51.5%, say, then getting better lines will make you a winner when otherwise you'd be a loser.

What part do you disagree with?