Toronto had 65 wins last season but they will be better this year. Cy young winner of 2 years ago Halliday has given his arm a lot more rest this off season and should be healthy all year unlike last year. The new bats of Koskie and Hillenbrandt will more then replace Delgado and give all-star stud Vernon Wells some good protection in the meat of the order. They also have a lot of young starters in rookie OF's Reed Johnson Alex Rios, SS Russ Adams and 3rd year player 2nd Baseman Orlando Hudson who will be improved this season. Eric Hinske will be a big question mark with this team as the 6th batter in the lineup,,, can he get back to his rookie of the year numbers from 2 seasons ago??,, he is their wildcard. I think the Jays pickup 73-78 wins this season, won't be too far off .500 I definitely agree with your fade KC pick though,, possibly Colorado too.
Talking about a fade team and the team with the worst record in baseball are two different things. K.C., Tampa Bay, Colorado and Washington probably will own the worst records but the money has always been with fading public and over valued teams. My choice is the world champs.
My belief is that there will be a 86 year old hangover in Beantown and I wonder how many position players will repeat the numbers, team chemistry, and magic of ‘04. Will the fire still be there after finally getting the monkey off their back? Several question marks with this team and none larger than the health and quality of the starting staff. Curt Schilling has had numerous visits to the D.L. over his storied 18 year career and after pitching over 304 innings in 2001, over 266 innings in 2002, and over 248 innings last year, (postseason included in all these numbers), you have to be skeptical whether this 39 year old will post another full year and his fourth 20 win season in the last five years. One thing is for sure his numbers wont exceed last years. Wells, Clement, Miller, Wakefield? Could be a crap shoot at best with both health concerns and/or production. Lots of the same could be said for numerous regulars like Varitek, will he bat almost .300 again? Ortiz had absolutely a career, (and clutch), year. Can you expect another one? Will Bellhorn’s poor defense and limited range prove to be a bad match for Renteria’s play at short? Manny will be Manny and undoubtedly post great numbers again, but is the Sox outfield anything special when you look at all their numbers collectively? And the same for the offensive numbers collectively in the infield. Bellhorn is average at second offensively, Renteria is switching leagues and how would the offensive production at the corners, (Millar/Mueller) rank as a whole in the A.L.?
In my mind the only thing that is solid about this team heading into 2005 is their bullpen. There they have a strength. Still games aren’t won and lost only from the fifth inning on. Balance is the key and I just see too many holes for this squad.
Regardless of my opinion they will be two dollar favorites more often than not this year and I’ll be picking my spots carefully and fading away. These guys are my selection for the Arizona Diamondbacks of 2005.
My belief is that there will be a 86 year old hangover in Beantown and I wonder how many position players will repeat the numbers, team chemistry, and magic of ‘04. Will the fire still be there after finally getting the monkey off their back? Several question marks with this team and none larger than the health and quality of the starting staff. Curt Schilling has had numerous visits to the D.L. over his storied 18 year career and after pitching over 304 innings in 2001, over 266 innings in 2002, and over 248 innings last year, (postseason included in all these numbers), you have to be skeptical whether this 39 year old will post another full year and his fourth 20 win season in the last five years. One thing is for sure his numbers wont exceed last years. Wells, Clement, Miller, Wakefield? Could be a crap shoot at best with both health concerns and/or production. Lots of the same could be said for numerous regulars like Varitek, will he bat almost .300 again? Ortiz had absolutely a career, (and clutch), year. Can you expect another one? Will Bellhorn’s poor defense and limited range prove to be a bad match for Renteria’s play at short? Manny will be Manny and undoubtedly post great numbers again, but is the Sox outfield anything special when you look at all their numbers collectively? And the same for the offensive numbers collectively in the infield. Bellhorn is average at second offensively, Renteria is switching leagues and how would the offensive production at the corners, (Millar/Mueller) rank as a whole in the A.L.?
In my mind the only thing that is solid about this team heading into 2005 is their bullpen. There they have a strength. Still games aren’t won and lost only from the fifth inning on. Balance is the key and I just see too many holes for this squad.
Regardless of my opinion they will be two dollar favorites more often than not this year and I’ll be picking my spots carefully and fading away. These guys are my selection for the Arizona Diamondbacks of 2005.
If you are looking for teams with similar profiles to the Diamondbacks of last year I think the Giants are a good fit. Much like ARI did, SF has sold out the future attempting to win now. This is certainly a defensible strategy considering they are trying to maximize their WS chances while they still have Bonds. But I think Sabean has gone a little overboard. Their roster is full of really old players whose performance will decline and are also more likely to get hurt. Also like ARI, SF's minor league system is bereft of any talent that could come up and fill the inevitable holes. As a result, when this team finally hits the wall they will fall as hard and as fast as ARI has.
Great Stuff guys! I'm always looking for a good fade in any sport. Last season, Arizona was very profitable in the last two months of the season bringin around 20-30 units I think fading them the whole way.
So far we got Kansas City, Arizona, San Francisco, and San Diego. Good potential in all four.
Regarding VegasVics comments about the Sox, I wonder what the payout on fading the Sox when they -250 or over everytime would be.
Does anybody have any information regarding the winning percentage and units won/lost if playing or fading any team -300 or more over the season? I mean anytime a team is -300 or more and hitting that everytime.
So far we got Kansas City, Arizona, San Francisco, and San Diego. Good potential in all four.
Regarding VegasVics comments about the Sox, I wonder what the payout on fading the Sox when they -250 or over everytime would be.
Does anybody have any information regarding the winning percentage and units won/lost if playing or fading any team -300 or more over the season? I mean anytime a team is -300 or more and hitting that everytime.
The Red Sox can mash, they have the best lineup in baseball. There is no easy out, no weak 2nd baseman or defensive catcher. Varitek and Bellhorn will regress, but they are still both better than average at their positions. The infield as a whole is one of the top hitting units in the game, no 700 OPS speed bumps. Enteria is an obvious offensive upgrade. The outfield is special. Ortiz had a great year last year, but he did the same thing the year before, the difference is he got over a hundred more at bats last season, so his counting stats were higher. But his OPS from both years is about the same, which makes it much more likely he can sustain that 950+ OPS number this year. The defense won't be great, but then NYY trots out some bad defensive players as well so BOS doesn't really lose by comparison there.
The pitching might be worse but lets remember how bad Lowe was last year. I think the improvement from Clement vs. Lowe will largely offset the decline from Wells vs. Pedro. We will see about Miller, he could be a really good 4th/5th pitcher, and Arroyo has alot of upside. BOS may not win it all but 90+ wins is almost certain. The AL East is a toss up in my estimation.
The pitching might be worse but lets remember how bad Lowe was last year. I think the improvement from Clement vs. Lowe will largely offset the decline from Wells vs. Pedro. We will see about Miller, he could be a really good 4th/5th pitcher, and Arroyo has alot of upside. BOS may not win it all but 90+ wins is almost certain. The AL East is a toss up in my estimation.
Slow, you are right, the Giants have some good young pitching prospects. A few years from now some of them could be making solid contributions. By that point Sabean will have had to blow up the present roster, and started looking for position players younger than 35. But I think the gap between those two eras will be a rough one for the team.
Choose, I was just commenting on BOS, not your comments. I think you are on the right track to look to fade big favorites. You won't see me playing many teams, BOS included, at those prices.
Choose, I was just commenting on BOS, not your comments. I think you are on the right track to look to fade big favorites. You won't see me playing many teams, BOS included, at those prices.
I've narrowed down the best potential fade teams to seven and want to narrow that list down to three. This is a question for anyone on the forum:
Rank the best fades from the following seven teams from best to worst?
San Francisco
Toronto
Seattle
Kansas City
Arizona
Washington
San Diego
My Picks:
1) Arizona
2) Kansas City
3) Seattle
Rank the best fades from the following seven teams from best to worst?
San Francisco
Toronto
Seattle
Kansas City
Arizona
Washington
San Diego
My Picks:
1) Arizona
2) Kansas City
3) Seattle
