is the number of foul shots taken a good indicator of team speed?

johnnycnote · Mar 16, 2005

trying to learn how to handicap basketball.

Dante · Mar 16, 2005

that is a great question..im interested in what others have to say also about this one

johnnycnote · Mar 16, 2005

where are the handicappers?

D2bets · Mar 16, 2005

I would say no. Foul shots are usually a better indicator of rebounding ability and inside presence. The best indicator of team speed is to watch the team and know how quick the players are. As far as a stat, maybe turnovers forced would be a decent indicator.

ApolloKid · Mar 16, 2005

Plus, foul shots can be a tricky stat. Some teams are going to benefit from favorable calls on their home court and shoot more free throws. Teams who are leading at end of a relatively tight game are also going to get fouled more to stop the clock and play the 3 for 2 game.

That said, how well a team shoots foul shots is very important.

I think there is no subsitute when looking for fast teams to actually having watched them play.

WorldNumberOne · Mar 16, 2005

no..

fast break points are an indication of team speed..

foul shots are an indication of a team that plays mostly 1/2 court offense and looks for post players as their 1st option.

signed,

John Wooden.

johnnycnote · Mar 16, 2005

verrry helpful guys,everything is really simple when you have great teachers!!

cincy_ · Mar 16, 2005

I do look at # of shots taken to handicap totals, but I feel the line has been adjusted accordingly

BUT ...

... for HT plays, I look at # of shots taken and # of fouls called as well.

If two teams have taken 44 shots each in the first half of an NBA game and have scored 105 points BUT there have been 12 total fouls called, the 2nd half under would be a big bet for me.

If we have 25 fouls in the first half, I really look to a second half over.

Another factor that is VERY important for HT plays is whether the game is a blowout, but that is something I have not been able to use one way or the other. I don't do second half totals on blowouts because I have been getting mixed results. If either game is a 15 point game at HT where the favorite or home team is winning, I don't make a play.

UWinSports · Mar 16, 2005

What I use is field goal % and points for per game to see who is the faster team. Like tonight for example TCU plays at a much faster tempo.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=text width="22%" bgColor=#ecece4>Offense </TD><TD class=text align=right width="20%" bgColor=#ecece4>For</TD><TD class=text align=right width="17%" bgColor=#ecece4>FG%</TD><TD class=text align=right width="15%" bgColor=#ecece4>3P%</TD><TD class=text align=right width="14%" bgColor=#ecece4>FT%</TD><TD class=text align=right width="12%" bgColor=#ecece4>Reb.</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=text width="22%" bgColor=#ecece4>TCU
MIAOH </TD><TD class=text align=right width="20%" bgColor=#ffffff>70.3
65.5 </TD><TD class=text align=right width="17%" bgColor=#ffffff>41.0
45.2 </TD><TD class=text align=right width="15%" bgColor=#ffffff>35.4
37.4 </TD><TD class=text align=right width="14%" bgColor=#ffffff>59.5
67.5 </TD><TD class=text align=right width="12%" bgColor=#ffffff>33.5
32.6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

UWinSports · Mar 16, 2005

Miami is a much better shooting team from the field and 3 point range but average fewer points.

cincy_ · Mar 16, 2005

AnthonyRichkas said:
Miami is a much better shooting team from the field and 3 point range but average fewer points.

Good point, but that could be due to turnovers too.

I think you have to do the same analysis for POINTS AGAINST. Maybe a team has a high FG percentage, but instead of missing shots they are just turning the ball over.

If you do what AR did for points against as well, you have a better analysis that could mean something.