Dante said:
Pretty Simple Dante ...
It's more fun to "cheer" for the team that's "supposed" to win. Same deal with overs, it's more fun to "cheer" for "points scored" that points missed.
It's "square-ish"
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Personally I tend to cap each game as an individual contest. It matters vey little to me if I wager on the fav or the pooch.
-K1
Dante,
You raise an excellent point that has lots of merit. Most of my "square" buddies usually bet Favorites and Overs.
I know I have said this before but I'll say it again...
I record all my bets every single day of the week and I also keep a close tab on my finances as it relates to sports betting.
I was only an "average" gambler until I forced myself to bet on UNDERDOGS & UNDERS by a ratio of at least 2-1. If you follow this method, I can almost guarantee that you will end up being a better gambler.
While anyone can find reasons for a 5 point favorite to cover by more than the number, it requires much more thinking and discipline to do just the opposite...
THE SHRINK
You raise an excellent point that has lots of merit. Most of my "square" buddies usually bet Favorites and Overs.
I know I have said this before but I'll say it again...
I record all my bets every single day of the week and I also keep a close tab on my finances as it relates to sports betting.
I was only an "average" gambler until I forced myself to bet on UNDERDOGS & UNDERS by a ratio of at least 2-1. If you follow this method, I can almost guarantee that you will end up being a better gambler.
While anyone can find reasons for a 5 point favorite to cover by more than the number, it requires much more thinking and discipline to do just the opposite...
THE SHRINK
Back in the olden days, I used to love the dog on the 4pm est TV game. The line seemed to move up at 355pm every time. No eve game, internet, etc, those stuck would use this as their "out". Desperate $ can't play the weaker team. And for you youngsters, NO , this wasn't when Jesus was walking around.
Dante I think a lot of people look at the board and think...hmm whose gonna blow somebody out. It seems to them that it is a lot more likely that a blowout will happen than the dog keeping it close. They want to root for a blowout and they are scared of betting an inferior team.
Similarly, people do not like to go short in the stock market either. Same as betting dog.
Similarly, people do not like to go short in the stock market either. Same as betting dog.
The reasons are VERY simple.
Reason 1: A favorite is laying points because the favorite has covered (or won) in the past.
A team that has covered/won will be a favorite. A team that loses will be a dog. So if a winning team plays a losing team, why would the losing team now cover/win all of a sudden?
People look at the past and predict the future. That is what we always do in life. A team that hasn't won, won't win.
Reason 2: Failure to separate reality from gambling.
We take the lessons of life and use it in sports betting. In real life, a 90% free-throw shooter should hit 9 of 10 free throws. In real life, a straight A-student will not fail a class ...
so ...
A team that has covered/won 9 of 10 games, will also cover the next game.
Reason 3: People make the BIG mistake of looking at a team's SU record and not the record ATS.
The Miami Heat could have a 12 game winning streak and winning by a margin of 12 points per game but might be 5-7 ATS in those games. The average player ignores the ATS record and simply looks at the SU record
Reason 1: A favorite is laying points because the favorite has covered (or won) in the past.
A team that has covered/won will be a favorite. A team that loses will be a dog. So if a winning team plays a losing team, why would the losing team now cover/win all of a sudden?
People look at the past and predict the future. That is what we always do in life. A team that hasn't won, won't win.
Reason 2: Failure to separate reality from gambling.
We take the lessons of life and use it in sports betting. In real life, a 90% free-throw shooter should hit 9 of 10 free throws. In real life, a straight A-student will not fail a class ...
so ...
A team that has covered/won 9 of 10 games, will also cover the next game.
Reason 3: People make the BIG mistake of looking at a team's SU record and not the record ATS.
The Miami Heat could have a 12 game winning streak and winning by a margin of 12 points per game but might be 5-7 ATS in those games. The average player ignores the ATS record and simply looks at the SU record
