Tennis: Hewitt v. Federer...Excellent Prop Value

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Beach House On The Moon
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The Final is best 3 out of 5 sets. 5 Dimes has Hewitt to win one or more sets +120.....worth a shot.

Its listed as: R. Federer NOT to win 3-0 +120
 

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mmm

Out of the last 10 sets between them, Hewitt has won 1. And 2 from the last 17. I would say that 3-0 is about 55% likely from this and their relative form.

The problem is that Hewitt is basically a counterpuncher. So against big servers like Roddick he can cause trouble. Federer can play in a lot of different styles, that's why he is the best since Borg.

Against Hewitt there is no reason to serve flat out, that's what he wants, gives him more pace for the return. No, ease off the gas and put lots of spin on the ball. Use placement to make him stretch on those returns. Easier said than done but not for Federer.
 

Beach House On The Moon
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Well said Pesky, I agree. I just think at this level of play +120 is worth a small play. The -700 on Federer to win has no value unles you want to go 3.5 dimes or more...and like they say any given Sunday.
 

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Federer to win was around -300 yesterday with the semis yet to be played.

I asked a question in the picks folder, on March 12th, whether it was allowed to post such a pick while there were still more than two contestants. The mods will answer ASAP, I know they are busy people.
 

Beach House On The Moon
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Woody, I have been posting this type of wager in Global Picks. I left a note for Journeyman about this, should be addressed soon. G
 

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crush

looks like a crush, massively higher % of returns being won by Federer. Of the top 10, Heiwtt in my book is the guy who poses him least problems. Roddick was very unlucky with the rain delay at Wimbledon, he had Fed really rattled.

Safin worries anyone anytime the real Marat can be bothered to turn up. Hewitt simply has a normal game which plays to all Federer's strengths, so he must be on top form and Federer well below par for an upset.
 

Beach House On The Moon
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At this point I'm just hoping that Federer gets bored and gives up another break. You must play as I do; I went to FSU on a tennis ticket. I agree with you on Safin - never know which one will show up, although he looks more focused the last five months.
 

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the best ever - probably

Normally opposing Fed is the sort of bet I would have been with you on. He's been very lucky in a couple of his matches against Ljubicic recently which was a pity, but at 10 to 1 I suppose you can't complain when the guy makes a final set breaker.

But that is why Fed is just too good, his tie-break record is phenomenal, only Roddick comes close.

Hewitt's serve is just not hard enough to get him many cheap points against Federer, and his returns might be good enough against the more predictable servers. But against Federer who can pull off shots other players can't even see Hewitt ends up doing too much stretching with his double handers and makes a lot of errors he wouldn't make against anyone else in the world.

I came close to backing 3-0 but the best I could find was -115.
 

Beach House On The Moon
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Pesky you should start posting in the tracking forum, we can use more tennis guys over there; Lawrence and I are the only ones currently. The Guru used to post picks here and there was a guy named Tang that did ok in tennis for a little while; I haven't seen them in a while.

Check out the Global Picks in the tracking room.

Take Care, Glaken
 

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