would you hedge these and, if so...how?

blueedwards · Mar 20, 2005

<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=670 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR class=modulebody><TD> </TD><TD noWrap> </TD><TD> </TD><TD noWrap align=left> </TD><TD align=left>Mens Championship - Utah</TD><TD noWrap align=left>200/1</TD><TD align=left> </TD><TD align=right>$50.00</TD><TD align=right>$10,000.00</TD><TD align=right> </TD><TD align=right> </TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR><TR class=modulebody><TD> </TD><TD noWrap> </TD><TD> </TD><TD noWrap align=left> </TD><TD align=left>Mens Championship - Villanova</TD><TD noWrap align=left>125/1</TD><TD align=left> </TD><TD align=right>$60.00</TD><TD align=right>$7,500.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

LEYKIS101 · Mar 20, 2005

Damn Blue, would love to be in your shoes with those. Id be hedging like crazy though.

THE SHRINK · Mar 20, 2005

If you decide to hedge, you might want to look at the MONEY LINES for their remaining games and risk losing about 10% of what you would end up WINNING on the opposing teams...

My quick 2 cents..

Best of Luck,

THE SHRINK

SoundofSilence · Mar 20, 2005

Tough to hedge with 14 other teams though. I've found that with the NCAA Tourney, big future bets don't actually become profitable until they've made it to the Elite 8.

WorldNumberOne · Mar 20, 2005

hell ya hedge...

take some other side money lines.... dont know what carolina will be laying against villanova .. might be an expensive hedge there ..

utah can beat ky..

HacheMan · Mar 20, 2005

You have to hedge Blue. If you don't and get nothing out of this you will be kicking yourself you know where for a while.......

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Mar 20, 2005

Let them ride. Like someone said, futures offer little value unless you have an Ill. at 15-1 or NC 10-1. If you have to money line out, the gaps will eat up any profit. Or a majority of it. I buy futures in almost everything, and also hedge with my hog quite a bit. Single game elimination tourneys with numerous rounds are just a huge risk if you buy that favorite against your future, and your future wins, it is greatly reduced. 2nd time, and could be gone. Theoretically, you could end up losing money hedging out. Hope one gets to Final 4. Then you are set. If not, had a good run.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

blueedwards · Mar 20, 2005

that carolina money line might be -600. if nova can somehow win that game...lookout. the rest of that bracket is a bowl of spaghetti

right now, i am inclined to let them ride one more game and just hope that nova can get lucky and beat carolina. i think utah can win that game...kentucky blows.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Mar 20, 2005

Yes, probably -5.50. Then you have to factor in, do you want a profit if NC wins. If you staked a nickel it would be different. But 50 cent should not damage you too bad if they blow. I would do the same exact thing. Not sure when North Carolina loses, if at all, but why not Villanova. Looks like you would be better off having some ACC instead of underperforming Big East. Utah with Bogut and his passing and defense could get them by weak, poorly coached Kentucky. I had Utes + last game, will take the 5 vs. Kentucky. Hey, at least you have a shot to advance. Good luck.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

Journeyman · Mar 20, 2005

I would let them ride one more game, then the fun begins....

blueedwards · Mar 20, 2005

seriously considering shrink's idea...

HacheMan · Mar 20, 2005

If Nova wasn't facing NC next, I'd let it ride one more time, however...............lol

good luck either way Blue, I will be faced with the same dilemma come the NBA Playoffs as I have a possible chunk riding on Phoenix........

VaultedTreehouse · Mar 20, 2005

You simply can't hedge these until the 8 and I wouldn't until the 4. Law of big numbers. If you had a huge bankroll, maybe different, but not until the 8.

HacheMan · Mar 20, 2005

Vaulted Treehouse said:
You simply can't hedge these until the 8 and I wouldn't until the 4. Law of big numbers. If you had a huge bankroll, maybe different, but not until the 8.

You may be right Tree, but I feel totally different. If you DON'T have a huge bankroll, I think you try to guarantee yourself some profit here. It's all about how bad Blue wants or needs the money, that's the key.Can he afford to or live with himself if he doesn't hedge and watches a few grande go down the drain.........

DarrylParsons · Mar 20, 2005

The proper way to look at it is to compute the present value of each bet and assume you are betting that much on the money line. Right now they are probably in the $100-$200 range each. So if you would normally hedge a bet of that size on a dog moneyline, then hedge on the moneyline. If not, then wait until the next round when the PVs will be more like $300-$500 or the final 4 when they'll be about $1000-$1500.

Nice bets btw. If it's not a secret, which book did you place them with?

blueedwards · Mar 20, 2005

Darryl Parsons said:
The proper way to look at it is to compute the present value of each bet and assume you are betting that much on the money line. Right now they are probably in the $100-$200 range each. So if you would normally hedge a bet of that size on a dog moneyline, then hedge on the moneyline. If not, then wait until the next round when the PVs will be more like $300-$500 or the final 4 when they'll be about $1000-$1500.

Nice bets btw. If it's not a secret, which book did you place them with?

bet them at 5 dimes in february.

Seymour · Mar 20, 2005

This coming from someone who hit Cuse +6500 and +7000 in 2003 - NO! - if you want to hedge in a championship game that's a different story - you can only lose $120 so who cares - but do not hedge anything until the finals which you probably won't have either team in.

blueedwards · Mar 20, 2005

oly has carolina -500 and kentucky -220

D2bets · Mar 20, 2005

Too bad my SIU 1000-1 took a bath today.

Well, let's see, I still got alive:
Illinois +1500 1,000/15,000
Arizona +6097 400/24,368
Texas Tech +27844 100/27,844
NC St +50000 100/50,000
Pinny Field +7014 (UWM, WVU) 900/63,127
With 800 down the drain already...

6 out of 16 teams. As long of those damn Cowboys don't make the FF, I'll have at least one in St. Louis.

As to your issue Blue, no, don't hedge, let it ride at least until the FF. Too soon to hedge.

I'm going to have a real conundrum if IL faces AZ...I cannot root against IL, that's for sure.

blueedwards · Mar 20, 2005

D2bets said:
Too bad my SIU 1000-1 took a bath today.

Well, let's see, I still got alive:
Illinois +1500 1,000/15,000
Arizona +6097 400/24,368
Texas Tech +27844 100/27,844
NC St +50000 100/50,000
Pinny Field +7014 (UWM, WVU) 900/63,127
With 800 down the drain already...

6 out of 16 teams. As long of those damn Cowboys don't make the FF, I'll have at least one in St. Louis.

As to your issue Blue, no, don't hedge, let it ride at least until the FF. Too soon to hedge.

I'm going to have a real conundrum if IL faces AZ...I cannot root against IL, that's for sure.