Shrink's Latest Article. Strongly disagree.

Fezzik · Mar 21, 2005

Well it certainly was a good read, but I cannot help but to shake my head.

Brilliant people do go bust all the time betting. However, they most certainly are not brilliant in the field of sports betting. They typically are not even smart bettors/bookies. In my experience, every gifted hard working, intelligent sports bettor or bookie wins. EVERY one. The odds are stacked so far in their favor, it is virtually impossible to lose over the long run.

The Aces Gold example is a good one. This Charlie guy may have been greedy, but he most certainly was also just totally incompetent.

There is no way to sugar coat this. Aces Gold had no-vig Friday, AND they let you buy on/off the NFL 3 for 10 cents each. So you could play 3.5 point NFL favorites at -2.5 -120. And 2.5 point NFL dogs +3.5 -120.

I mean, this was one of the most obvious exploitable promotion in the history of NFL betting. If I was this guys' boss and he told me he was offering this promo, I would hand him a mop and put him in charge of janitorial services.

I find it very hard to believe that anyone offering this type of promotion will ever succeed in any way in the linesmaking process. It shows such a complete total lack of understanding of fundamentals that it is unforgivable.

Concorde · Mar 21, 2005

So you could play 3.5 point NFL favorites at -2.5 -120. And 2.5 point NFL dogs +3.5 -120. [/QUOTE said:
WOW! THAT WOULD KILL A BOOK.

Rainbow · Mar 21, 2005

Fezzik said:
Well it certainly was a good read, but I cannot help but to shake my head.

Brilliant people do go bust all the time betting. However, they most certainly are not brilliant in the field of sports betting. They typically are not even smart bettors/bookies. In my experience, every gifted hard working, intelligent sports bettor or bookie wins. EVERY one. The odds are stacked so far in their favor, it is virtually impossible to lose over the long run.

The Aces Gold example is a good one. This Charlie guy may have been greedy, but he most certainly was also just totally incompetent.

There is no way to sugar coat this. Aces Gold had no-vig Friday, AND they let you buy on/off the NFL 3 for 10 cents each. So you could play 3.5 point NFL favorites at -2.5 -120. And 2.5 point NFL dogs +3.5 -120.

I mean, this was one of the most obvious exploitable promotion in the history of NFL betting. If I was this guys' boss and he told me he was offering this promo, I would hand him a mop and put him in charge of janitorial services.

I find it very hard to believe that anyone offering this type of promotion will ever succeed in any way in the linesmaking process. It shows such a complete total lack of understanding of fundamentals that it is unforgivable.

You can go on and on and on and on. the bottom line if you beat the line consistenly, IMPOSSIBLE ever to go broke I know more than a handful that wins for FUN. IMPOSSIBLE EVER TO GO BUSTED IF YOU BEAT THE LINE. THIS GUY WORKS HARDER OR THIS BOOKIE WORKS HARDER YOU CAN HANDICAPP 18 HOURS A DAY AND WHEN YOU START BETTING YOU DONT HAVE THE BEST OF THE LINE, YOUR MONEY ISNT WORTH 10CENTS ON A DOLLAR. THE GUY THAT BEATS THE LINE EVERYDAY WILL GET THE MONEY.

Rainbow · Mar 21, 2005

Brilliant people will NEVER EVER go broke if they beat the line consistenly. dont know EXACTLY what brilliant people you are referring to. the brilliant people I know never go BROKE. you MUST BE TALKING about shortstops I guess.

Fishhead · Mar 21, 2005

Rainbow said:
You can go on and on and on and on. the bottom line if you beat the line consistenly, IMPOSSIBLE ever to go broke I know more than a handful that wins for FUN. IMPOSSIBLE EVER TO GO BUSTED IF YOU BEAT THE LINE. THIS GUY WORKS HARDER OR THIS BOOKIE WORKS HARDER YOU CAN HANDICAPP 18 HOURS A DAY AND WHEN YOU START BETTING YOU DONT HAVE THE BEST OF THE LINE, YOUR MONEY ISNT WORTH 10CENTS ON A DOLLAR. THE GUY THAT BEATS THE LINE EVERYDAY WILL GET THE MONEY.

You and I know this to be true. :103631605

Dont think it can ever be properly explained in a forum setting though........which is good for us. :103631605

---FISH---

Concorde · Mar 21, 2005

Fishhead said:
You and I know this to be true.

Dont think it can ever be properly explained in a forum setting though........which is good for us.

---FISH---

I agree with you guys. With a proper money management and consistent % a player will NEVER go broke. :toast:

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Mar 21, 2005

Hate to agree with Fezzik here, something I rarely do, but he is right. I think the underlying factor on Ace's Gold was blatant incompetence. Like any other business, you should have the capital, especially at start-up to withstand a slow start. That is the number one reason for failure, undercapitalization. But Aces Gold, or Charlie went way beyond that. He gave away the store. Without looking into a man's mind processes, I cannot begin to guess what motivated this behavior. Greed, arrogance, ego, stupidity, possibly a combination of all. But Gordon Gecko had it right, "Greed is good." I firmly believe that. Do not confuse business mismanagement with greed. Charlie gave away the store by offering odds against his own store. Remember, odds favor the house, he violated that sacred bookmaking principle. An analogy would be a slot machine that pays 105%. Guess what, every sharp in the world is going to be lined up to play that. The average knucklehead, who you value as a highly desired customer probably will not even spot it, so you fail to entice him, and get the cream of the crop betting into you. Then on top of that, you do not make the giveaway slot a nickel slot. You are a high roller, and make it a dollar slot. Oops! Then, you have all the sharps taking your wide open limits and draining your capital at a very high rate. Hmm, time to think, why are we getting smashed? I would put on the brakes and reevaluate. They accelerated, gave all comers all limits and flew off the cliff, maybe doing 150 MPH. I think desperation and denial were in play there. No greed involved when they kept following a path of destruction. Probably the most ironic part of the whole fiasco was they did not even have to give away the store. All they had to do was give up some juice, or a bonus program, one time pay. Limit the exposure. If I were to find one adjective to describe a common denominator of losing players and books I would use desperate. But maybe I will save that for my article.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

By the way The SHRINK, article was well written, nice presentation. Most important, thought provoking. Just a counterpoint on the content. :toast:

TheGeneral+ · Mar 21, 2005

if I have learned nothing else of importance here, it is to play the good numbers only and avoid the bad.

To bad I don't listen to myself alot. Gonna start today. :drink:

Rainbow · Mar 21, 2005

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Hate to agree with Fezzik here, something I rarely do, but he is right. I think the underlying factor on Ace's Gold was blatant incompetence. Like any other business, you should have the capital, especially at start-up to withstand a slow start. That is the number one reason for failure, undercapitalization. But Aces Gold, or Charlie went way beyond that. He gave away the store. Without looking into a man's mind processes, I cannot begin to guess what motivated this behavior. Greed, arrogance, ego, stupidity, possibly a combination of all. But Gordon Gecko had it right, "Greed is good." I firmly believe that. Do not confuse business mismanagement with greed. Charlie gave away the store by offering odds against his own store. Remember, odds favor the house, he violated that sacred bookmaking principle. An analogy would be a slot machine that pays 105%. Guess what, every sharp in the world is going to be lined up to play that. The average knucklehead, who you value as a highly desired customer probably will not even spot it, so you fail to entice him, and get the cream of the crop betting into you. Then on top of that, you do not make the giveaway slot a nickel slot. You are a high roller, and make it a dollar slot. Oops! Then, you have all the sharps taking your wide open limits and draining your capital at a very high rate. Hmm, time to think, why are we getting smashed? I would put on the brakes and reevaluate. They accelerated, gave all comers all limits and flew off the cliff, maybe doing 150 MPH. I think desperation and denial were in play there. No greed involved when they kept following a path of destruction. Probably the most ironic part of the whole fiasco was they did not even have to give away the store. All they had to do was give up some juice, or a bonus program, one time pay. Limit the exposure. If I were to find one adjective to describe a common denominator of losing players and books I would use desperate. But maybe I will save that for my article.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

By the way The SHRINK, article was well written, nice presentation. Most important, thought provoking. Just a counterpoint on the content. :toast:

So YOU AGREE THAT BRILLIANT PEOPLE GO BROKE, I"m NOT SURE IF I UNDERSTAND HOW THE TWO OF YOU DEFINE BRILLIANT. BRILLIANT PEOPLE I KNOW NEVER IN THIS WORLD WILL EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER GO BROKE IN THIS WORLD THAT BEATS THE LINE. WHENEVER YOU GET TIME ASK YOUR FRIENDS,NEIGHBORS, OR EVEN SOME SHARPIES YOU KNOW IF YOU BEAT THE LINE CONSISTENLY CAN YOU WIN. THATS A NO BRAINER, I GUESS SOME PEOPLE HAVENT GONE DOWN ENOUGH STREETS IN THIS GENERATION. I"M CLOSING SAYING I CANT COUNT HOW MANY TIMES I"VE SAID THIS IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS IF YOU BEAT THE LINE YOU BEAT THE GAME REAL SIMPLE... I KNOW IT SEEMS HARD TO COMPREHEND...:finger:

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Mar 21, 2005

Not sure where I agree with brilliant people go broke. I agree with bad business practices sunk Ace's Gold. But maybe you could reread my post and point it out to me. Most of the brilliant people I know are successful, most are greedy, driven and find an opportunity to succeed, somehow, some way. My point was GREED/desperate. Lucky today is a light schd, so I can participate in these debates. By the way, it is not that simple. If it was, everyone would win. Tell me, what percentage of gamblers are successful, as simple as it is?

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

THE SHRINK · Mar 21, 2005

Did anyone notice the date of that article?

I had NO IDEA what any of you were talking about until I visited the HOME PAGE....

Well, I still stand by it and respectfully disagree with both Fezzik and OF...

Rainbow · Mar 21, 2005

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Not sure where I agree with brilliant people go broke. But maybe you could reread my post and point it out to me. Most of the brilliant people I know are successful, most are greedy, driven and find an opportunity to succeed, somehow, some way. My point was GREED/desperate. Lucky today is a light schd, so I can participate in these debates. By the way, it is not that simple. If it was, everyone would win. Tell me, what percentage of gamblers are successful, as simple as it is?

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

EASY ANSWER TO THE QUESTION. IF YOU BEAT THE LINE YOU BEAT THE GAME, I REPEAT IF YOU BEAT THE LINE YOU BEAT THE GAME, LOOKS REAL SIMPLE TO ME. WHAT YOU DONT UNDERSTAND ABOUT THE ANSWER. I CANT WAIT FOR THIS ONE.

Rainbow · Mar 21, 2005

Fezzik said:
Well it certainly was a good read, but I cannot help but to shake my head.

Brilliant people do go bust all the time betting. However, they most certainly are not brilliant in the field of sports betting. They typically are not even smart bettors/bookies. In my experience, every gifted hard working, intelligent sports bettor or bookie wins. EVERY one. The odds are stacked so far in their favor, it is virtually impossible to lose over the long run.

The Aces Gold example is a good one. This Charlie guy may have been greedy, but he most certainly was also just totally incompetent.

There is no way to sugar coat this. Aces Gold had no-vig Friday, AND they let you buy on/off the NFL 3 for 10 cents each. So you could play 3.5 point NFL favorites at -2.5 -120. And 2.5 point NFL dogs +3.5 -120.

I mean, this was one of the most obvious exploitable promotion in the history of NFL betting. If I was this guys' boss and he told me he was offering this promo, I would hand him a mop and put him in charge of janitorial services.

I find it very hard to believe that anyone offering this type of promotion will ever succeed in any way in the linesmaking process. It shows such a complete total lack of understanding of fundamentals that it is unforgivable.

The very first SENTENCE. BRILLIANT PEOPLE DO GO BROKE ALL THE TIME. THAT IS GOT TO BE ONE OF THE WORST COMMENTS I COULD EVER IMAGINE, UNLESS WE THINK DIFFERENT WHAT BRILLIANT MEANS. BRILLIANT MUST MEAN SUCKER TO YOU EVIDENTLY, BECAUSE THE BRILLIANT PEOPLE I KNOW THAT BEAT THE LINE HAS NO SHOT TO EVER EVER EVER IN LIFE GO BROKE.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Mar 21, 2005

Not interested. By the way, it is called a Caps Lock key, and should be on your left under the Tab key. It is difficult to have a discussion with someone who is shouting. Worse to have a battle of wits with someone who is nit, half and dim all concurrently just does not motivate me. Glad it is all simple to you, could change your name to simpleton. :103631605

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

The SHRINK Greed is good. Socialist vs. Capitalist. Where do the brilliant minds go? Where they are compensated monetarily. Call it greed, but a motivating factor nonetheless. We will speak again on this, I am confident.

Concorde · Mar 21, 2005

:discuss: :discuss:

THE SHRINK · Mar 21, 2005

OF,

In this industry, GREED has put more people in the poor house than anything else I know...

Perhaps you haven't read your BIBLE recently? :icon_conf

Even the scholars way back then knew it was certainly not a good trait...

THE SHRINK

Rainbow · Mar 21, 2005

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Not interested. By the way, it is called a Caps Lock key, and should be on your left under the Tab key. It is difficult to have a discussion with someone who is shouting. Worse to have a battle of wits with someone who is nit, half and dim all concurrently just does not motivate me. Glad it is all simple to you, could change your name to simpleton.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

The SHRINK Greed is good. Socialist vs. Capitalist. Where do the brilliant minds go? Where they are compensated monetarily. Call it greed, but a motivating factor nonetheless. We will speak again on this, I am confident.

So now you are going to call me a NIT. I forgot more about this BUSINESS than you can know in a lifetime. I"m SMARTER than you in my sleep:drink:

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Mar 21, 2005

Could you please define greed. Websters would be sufficient. Maybe we are talking about a different word. Also, no because the bible told me so. The good book has already been disproven in court. Thank You.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

TheGeneral+ · Mar 21, 2005

Where do the brilliant minds go?

Sure not 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20500 recently.

:lolBIG:

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Mar 21, 2005

Rainbow said:
So now you are going to call me a NIT. I forgot more about this BUSINESS than you can know in a lifetime. I"m SMARTER than you in my sleep:drink:

I am sure you are, it is easy to tell by your posts. But wake up and quit living the dream. I think you have made yourself look bad enough already, but dig deeper if you must.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy: