Capping Baseball, Discussion on Pitchers?

Journeyman · Mar 22, 2005

How far back do you look at stats on the games starting pitchers, or do you look at pitcher versus batter lifetime matchups?

Which do you feel is more important?

WorldNumberOne · Mar 22, 2005

i go a few games back .

i look at career record against oppt.

i look at career batter vs pitcher matchup.

they are all equal in importance in my mind.

Journeyman · Mar 22, 2005

World Number One said:
i go a few games back .

i look at career record against oppt.

i look at career batter vs pitcher matchup.

they are all equal in importance in my mind.

That is exactly what I do...vs team being the least important as teams change personel...

WNO- how many games do you go back 3?

WorldNumberOne · Mar 22, 2005

i think a pitchers last 3 or 4 starts are as far back as you need to go..

typically as the season gets going , one of those starts is against the current oppt..

BowlMeOne · Mar 22, 2005

Don't forget to take a look at the bullpen. Very important, yet most often overlooked. Keep an eye on who has been used, who hasn't. Some guys will be available, some won't. Alot of times..you will actually see games where the team will actually be willing to sacrifice a game..just to have everything set up right for upcoming series.

WorldNumberOne · Mar 22, 2005

BasesWiz said:
Don't forget to take a look at the bullpen. Very important, yet most often overlooked. Keep an eye on who has been used, who hasn't. Some guys will be available, some won't. Alot of times..you will actually see games where the team will actually be willing to sacrifice a game..just to have everything set up right for upcoming series.

excellent point..

Journeyman · Mar 22, 2005

BasesWiz said:
Don't forget to take a look at the bullpen. Very important, yet most often overlooked. Keep an eye on who has been used, who hasn't. Some guys will be available, some won't. Alot of times..you will actually see games where the team will actually be willing to sacrifice a game..just to have everything set up right for upcoming series.

very good point, Bases Wiz

I would like to hear more on capping bullpens as well....

THE SHRINK · Mar 22, 2005

VERY SHARP indeed. Now if only our posts were as solid as the results, we'd all be well off... :money8:

THE SHRINK

Glaken · Mar 22, 2005

All very good so far and I agree....I also like to have a look at MOB % and opposing batters OBP %. Then after May the 1st i like to look at Sagarin's Rickey rating to see if pitchers are over powering hitters or relying on the rest of the team to make the plays.

Sagarin explanations

Pitchers are rated on FIVE CATEGORIES: (1) INNINGS PITCHED
(note: MOB=(HITS+WALKS+HBP) per 9 inn) (2) SQRT(ERA x MOB)
(3) RICKEY = ((IP-H) + (SO-(W+HBP)) = ((IP+SO) - (H+W+HBP))
(4) WINS
(5) SAVES

Note that the printed listing RICKEY/9IP is simply the following
measurement of the pitcher's power: ((IP-H) + (SO-(W+HBP)) = ((IP+SO) - (H+W+HBP)) per 9 inn
average RICKEY/9IP ranges between 2.00 in the AL and 3.00 in the NL. The DH explains the difference.

CHOPTALK · Mar 22, 2005

I go back 5 starts, then I check both lineups for righty vs lefty matchup. Some teams cant hit a lefty to save their ass.

Glaken · Mar 22, 2005

THE SHRINK said:
VERY SHARP indeed. Now if only our posts were as solid as the results, we'd all be well off... :money8:

THE SHRINK

Don't you mean vice-versa ......Results as solid as our post?:drink: :drink:

Glaken · Mar 22, 2005

choptalk said:
I go back 5 starts, then I check both lineups for righty vs lefty matchup. Some teams cant hit a lefty to save their ass.

Chop, You wouldn't be referring to our beloved Andrew Jones would you?:drink:

CHOPTALK · Mar 22, 2005

Glaken said:
Chop, You wouldn't be referring to our beloved Andrew Jones would you?:drink:

He just struck out on a pitch low and away!!!! I never saw that before.

Im glad to hear you are a Braves fan Glaken. I hope we can put another banner on the center field wall this year. With a starting pitching, who knows maybe a World Series.

Glaken · Mar 22, 2005

choptalk said:
He just struck out on a pitch low and away!!!! I never saw that before.

Im glad to hear you are a Braves fan Glaken. I hope we can put another banner on the center field wall this year. With a starting pitching, who knows maybe a World Series.

Have always been a fan since I could hear...even when they lost 100 games a year. I just bought "the twelve pack" ticket special, I picked several afternoon games since Turner Field is about a 15 minute walk from my office.

I noticed you signed up in the Tracking room for baseball...we should have fun this year; we'll have to have a "pre-game meeting" every now and again.

Take Care, G

CHOPTALK · Mar 22, 2005

Glaken said:
Have always been a fan since I could hear...even when they lost 100 games a year. I just bought "the twelve pack" ticket special, I picked several afternoon games since Turner Field is about a 15 minute walk from my office.

I noticed you signed up in the Tracking room for baseball...we should have fun this year; we'll have to have a "pre-game meeting" every now and again.

Take Care, G

Sounds great, Ive always been a Braves fan too, since I was old enough to watch TV, I remember when the ace of our staff was the late great Rick Junk Mahler. Do you remember the game against ST Louis that went 20 innings when the Cardinals ran out of pitchers they had to use utility infielder Jose Oqendo and he pitched 6 innings of scoreless relief, and in the bottem of the 20th the Braves threw a wild pitch on an intentional walk, and the winning runner scored. That had to be the low point in the history of the team.

SSI · Mar 22, 2005

also a lifelong braves fan here... listened to -- and went to plenty of games - as early as 1975-76 team, boy they were some bad ones, remember the one game Ted suited up as manager... remember the winning streak to start the 82 season, and of course sid sliding across home plate (braves win, braves win, braves win).... andruw needs to always hit 7th in this order, he sucks when he is put in a posistion to produce at the plate... i always liked otis nixon btw...

Glaken · Mar 22, 2005

choptalk said:
Sounds great, Ive always been a Braves fan too, since I was old enough to watch TV, I remember when the ace of our staff was the late great Rick Junk Mahler. Do you remember the game against ST Louis that went 20 innings when the Cardinals ran out of pitchers they had to use utility infielder Jose Oqendo and he pitched 6 innings of scoreless relief, and in the bottem of the 20th the Braves threw a wild pitch on an intentional walk, and the winning runner scored. That had to be the low point in the history of the team.

:lolBIG: I missed that game...I must have been striking out in a Little League game somewhere....but I'm sure we could come up with a gazillion low point stories.

That intentional walk thing has all ways been a challenge for the Bravos...Mark Wholers comes to mind.

Here is a post I made yesterday while chatting about the Tracking room-

Choptalked joined the Tracking Forum today...another Braves fan. We should be able to cap the Braves really well this year as I think there are alot of Bravo fans on the forums. I watch or listen to every game, something I used to do with my Grandfather and Grandmother when I was a little Glake; We listened on an old transistor radio while fishing...man those were the days. The Braves lost 100 games a year back then and we still loved them. My favorite T-shirt as a kid had a braves logo on the front and the phrase "Ask me what mathematically eliminated means" on the back. It looked good with my Oakland A's plastic batting helment. Play Ball!!!

G

honestabe · Mar 22, 2005

if this post gets a little incoherent, please forgive me. it's 10pm here in the u.k. and i'm a little tipsy.

frank rosenthal said “The one thing in baseball that hasn’t changed is handicapping. 75-80% of MLB handicapping is based on the pitcher. The pitcher is the name of the game, he controls everything. Good pitching has always beat good hitting – then and now.”

but i read 'betting baseball' by michael l. murray and he said:

Each team’s total pitching strength is worth about 21%. If you consider that the average starter lasts 6 innings, then you have to assume that each team’s starting pitcher has about 14% influence on the total number of runs scored in the game.

so who do you think is right? or righter? i think the truth is somewhere in the middle.

like most people i want to be able to handicap with the least amount of work required. i believe the effect of the bullpen is underrated, but don't want to keep track of every key reliever. so i just use 'as a reliever' pitching stats on mlb.com and print them at the end of every month so i have records of year-to-date performance and monthly performance. this still seems pretty rudimentary.

also, for assessing pitching i use XERA and OPS R/G (OBA x SLG x 35) but consider other factors like Command Rate to spot trends.

Glaken · Mar 22, 2005

honest abe said:
if this post gets a little incoherent, please forgive me. it's 10pm here in the u.k. and i'm a little tipsy.

frank rosenthal said “The one thing in baseball that hasn’t changed is handicapping. 75-80% of MLB handicapping is based on the pitcher. The pitcher is the name of the game, he controls everything. Good pitching has always beat good hitting – then and now.”

but i read 'betting baseball' by michael l. murray and he said:

Each team’s total pitching strength is worth about 21%. If you consider that the average starter lasts 6 innings, then you have to assume that each team’s starting pitcher has about 14% influence on the total number of runs scored in the game.

so who do you think is right? or righter? i think the truth is somewhere in the middle.

like most people i want to be able to handicap with the least amount of work required. i believe the effect of the bullpen is underrated, but don't want to keep track of every key reliever. so i just use 'as a reliever' pitching stats on mlb.com and print them at the end of every month so i have records of year-to-date performance and monthly performance. this still seems pretty rudimentary.

also, for assessing pitching i use XERA and OPS R/G (OBA x SLG x 35) but consider other factors like Command Rate to spot trends.