Keep in mind this is coming from quite a biased perspective....
I'm pretty optimistic about the white sox chances this year. This is a team that won 83 games last year despite the fact that:
-thier starting rotation consisted of
M. Buehrle
E. Loiza
J. Garland
S. Schoenweiss
D. Wright
Schoenwiess had a few good starts at the beginning of the year then blew up and got injured. Dan Wright got rocked from the get go and the 5th starter spot became a revolving door of not ready for the majors prospects that got rocked just as hard a Wright did (see Felix Diaz)
Its hard to put together winning streaks longer than 5 games when the fifth starter slot gets ONE win the entire season.
The starting rotation this year:
M. Buehrle
F. Garcia
O. Hernandaz
J. Contreras
J. Garland
There is no doubt that the Sox have much more depth in SP. Sure Hernandez's health is a question mark, and Contreras is quite inconsistent, but one has to be crazy not to take them two vs. Schoenweiss and 5th starter du jour. Some more depth is found in prospect Branden McCarthy, who had been great in spring training (could be the next blackjack) and actually looks like he what it takes to do well in the bigs unlike other Sox pitching prospects in the recent past (Jon Rauch, Scott Ruffcorn). If one of our pitchers goes down McCarthy at least provides more oppertunity to win than the 5th starter last year.
In addition, the sox bullpen had Billy Koch penciled in as the closer last year with the fossilized moonwalker Mike Jackson as a primary setup role. We were able to dump Koch early in the season (not before he blew a few games), but Jackson remained in the bullpen and blew plenty of games.
Shingo Takatsu emirged as a decent closer and starts this season with the same role. Given his history in the stats as well as Japan there is no reason to think he won't put up similar #'s this year. Dustin Hermansen and Luis Viscaino were added giving the sox IMO a top tier bullpen this year.
On the offensive side of things, the sox lost some power and gained some speed. Almost every preview of the team I've read focuses on the fact that the sox lost all their offense due to Maggs Ordonez leaving and Carlos Lee being traded. But even with Maggs and Frank Thomas lost for more than 50% of the season last year the sox still managed to lead to league in homers. Maggs' bat has been replaced with Jermaine Dye, so (if he stays healthy) there should not be too much of a dropoff in production. AJ Pierzynski is a pretty major upgrade from last year in the catcher position.
This year the sox still have the potential to hit a ton of homers, but have added speed on OBP to the top of the order with Scott Podsednik and Japanese import Todahito Iguchi. Hopefully this will lead to more consistent offensive output and allow the sox to play some smallball Ozzie style baseball. Last year the sox, depending on the long ball too much, would blow their load one game scoring 14 runs and then go on to score 5 runs combined in the next 2 games.
In summary, the Sox, compared to last year's team, have a better starting rotation with more depth, an upgraded bullpen and an offensive that has less power than last year but more speed and hopefully more consistency.
Health is certainly a concern for a few big pieces to the puzzle (El Duque, Dye, Thomas) and there are some questions about weather Rowand and Uribe can replicate last years seasons and weather Iguchi will adapt to the MLB.
Again, its obvious that I'm a total homer so keep that in mind, but I think the Sox are getting great odds to win the divison (around +420). The twins are the frontrunners and they deserve to be given their recent success. I have no idea why the Indians are favored over the Sox (their bullpen will lose 20-30 games for them alone).
In addition, I think they can surpass their win total from last year, so the season over (i think its down to 82.5 games) is a good play as well IMO.
But, as said above, the Sox have disappointed me and others many times the past few years, so they are no sure thing.
