Baseball-Simple Dog Betting Formula

gak555 · Mar 26, 2005

Have a buddy that claims he makes money by betting against a favorite if their overall home or road record is below .500. So, let's say The mets are 28w-34L on the road. his idea is to bet against the mets regardless of who is pitching or who the opponent is when the mets are on the road.

Same holds true for home teams with losing home records as home favorites.

This sounded too simple to me, but when I back tracked it through five years of Phil Erwin's Baseball-Insight, it was very profitable each year.

Has anyone tried anything similar to this ?

ChooseORLose · Mar 27, 2005

sounds too simple! but that could be good. simple is sometimes better. i'll be watching.

STALLIONSPORTS · Mar 27, 2005

gak,

so what ur saying is if the mets had a road losing record and were FAVORED ON THE ROAD...to bet against the mets..correct

i do alot of researching especially when it comes to lines

thx

ChooseORLose · Mar 27, 2005

then, this would most likely occur if both teams have losing records, particularly if the road team is favored. Right? And this can change day to day, as the mets could have a losing record today but not tomorrow.

gak555 · Mar 28, 2005

This information comes directly from Phil Erwin. www.baseball-insight.com Sorry I don't have time to break it down here, but if you buy his annual, it is the best source to evaluate various angles.

This year I will be betting against teams that are under .500 when they are favorites regardless of opponent or pitchers. Make sure you keep separate home and road records.

MathProf · Mar 28, 2005

Suggestion - what you have here is a "League System" which describes a

history of performance over a period of time. I suggest that you
then check out each team as to how they have performed within these
parameters. No sense in betting against a team that is 13-1 as a
road favorite when playing sub .500!

I'll undoubtedly buy the Erwin book and do further reasearch then
post here.

Thx for info.

Baseball-Simple Dog Betting Formula

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