"Betting Baseball" by Michael Murray?

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I don't know enough to know I don't know
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One man’s review

It depends on your experience and knowledge of the sport and wagering on it.

I just read the book yesterday and found that most of the information were things I have used for years. Frankly many of the newer beneficial tools come from Bill James Baseball Abstract so why not just go straight to the original source. (ie:
Pythagorean Theorem for deserved wins and expected ERA, xERA)

It does contain a in-depth analysis on all the umpires that can be helpful but even there most of that information is free on the web and would be redundant to anyone that follows the game closely. He covers Ques-Tech, and the human intangibles of involved with being a umpire that stats can not convey. He quotes emails sent from Sandy Alderson to three different umpires on how to call balls and strikes and that advice’s effect in their next game. Where he gets that inside information, or how it can benefit us in the future as a gambler, is unclear or has little purpose other than setting us up with the history of how Ques-Tech was born.

For me much of the book seemed to be filler in an attempt to reach 100 something pages and justify the $40.00 price tag. He points out accurately “There is a tendency in baseball to get bogged down in minutiae” and then donates several pages on umpires runs per game average when the temperature is above 90 or below 60. Not only is there limited samplings behind these averages but you have to wonder was the temperature 59 in right field while 61 in left, how would anyone know the difference, and who cares. Almost half of his book is dedicated to umpires where many more useful tools like his personal money management system and the psychology involved in successfully grinding out a marathon season of baseball. For all the time he talks about the starting pitching he rarely discusses the importance of the bullpen and any magic formula to gauge their effectiveness. Several pages deal with park dimensions and that effect in the average runs scored. If you don’t know that information already you shouldn’t be betting on baseball.

On the positive side he does cover return on investment, the importance of making your own line, and many calculations, graphs, on different aspects of pitching and offense. But the bottom line is there is little I learned that I haven’t already read somewhere else or used already. All in all my time would have been better served in surfing the net for stories about some pitcher developing a new pitch for his 2005 repertoire or how the bullpens stack up for the upcoming year.

 

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i never read the book at all. nor probly never will. but, i will say this much. if you base placing your wagers all from a book theroy. you will not win because, of so many other eliments of the game that really is not covered in books. i feel MR.Vic is right in regards to the intangables. (umps,weather conditions,players, streaks, ect,ect)


basicly, the books will teach you the basics. but, it's upto you to perfect the art of betting the sport.
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
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Nice to hear from you Dan. It’s been too long.

My review may have dwelled too much on the negative. My opinion is any education is a good one and there is much in this book that acts as a good primer for some but for others may be old news. As Dan points out there is no magic formula for being successful in this pursuit of sports gambling and it certainly isn’t written in one book. It takes a lot of work and a mixture of things like being mature, disciplined, having a good money management system, (and sticking to it). It takes rising above human frailties and owning diligence. It takes a excellent mind for math and a artful touch. Frankly it’s far less harder to punch a time clock than try to make this business a profession.

In all fairness Mr. Murray touches on all this and more in a condensed list of two pages to begin his book entitled, “Survival”. My critique of his work is that he doesn’t elaborate on much of it and spending more time, (and pages), in helping us avoid the pitfalls would be better served than telling us that baseball don’t travel as far when it‘s cold.

 

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