i dont have the time to handicap 15 games a day so i look for mechanical ideas. i like the over/unders so i looked at last years team records home and away and will bet the teams that had positive spreads. thats for the a.l.
In the national league i will look for games were both teams had over 50% either over or under and bet them colrado excluded at home.
on the sides i will look for dogs on the road with winning percentages for units based on last yers numbers for starters. thats usually more than i need and we will see what happens.
In the national league i will look for games were both teams had over 50% either over or under and bet them colrado excluded at home.
on the sides i will look for dogs on the road with winning percentages for units based on last yers numbers for starters. thats usually more than i need and we will see what happens.
The only time preseason preperation is usefull is the first 6 weeks of the season. After that the lines catch up to reality. I have my list of teams that I think are over valued and under valued in another thread. After the first 6 weeks all that goes out the window. The most overlooked thing in handicapping baseball is righty lefty matchups, pitcher vs hitter. Some players can simply not hit a lefty, its that simple. Or maybe a team is forced to use a weeker platoon player in these games. Home field is overated in baseball, and the line is inflated for the home team more than it should. Not saying playing at home is not an advantage, its just overblown when it comes to value in the line. Never take the run line. Not enough value giving up that extra run. I have a few other things that I will not mention here, but thats a start.
I rate, preseason, and constantly update, all starters 1-5. Clemens, Santana, they're 1s. Nomo, Darren Oliver are 5s. (I basically use rotation orders, with some exceptions when a 2 is a 1 or a 4 performs like a 5.)
Then I track each team's W/L vs. 1-5. At least until June, it helps me see who has been beating up on lower-rotation pitchers and who has been abused by ace after ace.
(I will also watch righty-lefty records and lineups, as was previously mentioned. Some young hitters with high averages will get them by sitting out against LHP. Check Hank Blalock's career vs. Lefties, for instance.)
By July, pitchers with holes in their arms will begin to reveal themselves. Erwin's pitching aces is as useful in midseason as in April. More, I think. Can help predict streaks (a scary proposition, not for the weak of will, but glorious when you're ahead of the curve).
In August, I go with Madcapper. Don't know what he does, but it's good.
In September, I find pitchers who aren't weak, who will persevere, and bet their hind legs off. Nothing like a team on a September roll, because so many are passionless by then.
I believe strongly in lineups, and will avoid overnight lines on getaway days, or any day I have reason to believe critical offensive players are sitting.
Other factors weighed: 1/ Rematches from previous week are common in the era of the unbalanced schedule. I don't like a guy to beat the same guy again next week. Either flip or pass.
2/ Your ace is playing their No. 5 on the road and I'm guaranteed nine at-bats, I just might play the run line.
3/ With daylight savings time, you have an early evening start for ESPN -- say 5-6 local time, I will play the under even with poor pitchers on the mound. That twilight dotting the field with shadows screws up hitters bigtime.
4/ Managers tend to follow one of two philosophies about lineups. Most believe in a healthy mix of Rs and Ls in the batting order. Some stack their lineups, grouping Rs at one end of the order and Ls at the other. That is a mistake, especially against a weak starter who might not be on the mound long. It invites a manager to lineup his bullpen, using specialists for not just one batter in the sixth inning, but the entire inning. Another for the seventh, then he has his setup man and closer. If you can't get to them, you've robbed yourself of at least four innings to beat a bad starter. Bottom line: Bet against stacked lineups.
Then I track each team's W/L vs. 1-5. At least until June, it helps me see who has been beating up on lower-rotation pitchers and who has been abused by ace after ace.
(I will also watch righty-lefty records and lineups, as was previously mentioned. Some young hitters with high averages will get them by sitting out against LHP. Check Hank Blalock's career vs. Lefties, for instance.)
By July, pitchers with holes in their arms will begin to reveal themselves. Erwin's pitching aces is as useful in midseason as in April. More, I think. Can help predict streaks (a scary proposition, not for the weak of will, but glorious when you're ahead of the curve).
In August, I go with Madcapper. Don't know what he does, but it's good.
In September, I find pitchers who aren't weak, who will persevere, and bet their hind legs off. Nothing like a team on a September roll, because so many are passionless by then.
I believe strongly in lineups, and will avoid overnight lines on getaway days, or any day I have reason to believe critical offensive players are sitting.
Other factors weighed: 1/ Rematches from previous week are common in the era of the unbalanced schedule. I don't like a guy to beat the same guy again next week. Either flip or pass.
2/ Your ace is playing their No. 5 on the road and I'm guaranteed nine at-bats, I just might play the run line.
3/ With daylight savings time, you have an early evening start for ESPN -- say 5-6 local time, I will play the under even with poor pitchers on the mound. That twilight dotting the field with shadows screws up hitters bigtime.
4/ Managers tend to follow one of two philosophies about lineups. Most believe in a healthy mix of Rs and Ls in the batting order. Some stack their lineups, grouping Rs at one end of the order and Ls at the other. That is a mistake, especially against a weak starter who might not be on the mound long. It invites a manager to lineup his bullpen, using specialists for not just one batter in the sixth inning, but the entire inning. Another for the seventh, then he has his setup man and closer. If you can't get to them, you've robbed yourself of at least four innings to beat a bad starter. Bottom line: Bet against stacked lineups.
All you need to do is bet the YANKEES in every series play this year. You'll be a winner at the end,lol. Just kidding. Money is easy in the beginning of the season in baseball as teams are yet to settle in. Some pitchers come out of the gate like tigers and some take time to get into a rythym. Weather comes into play early on the east coast games when capping totals. Pretty cold during night games early on and I believe that favors the pitchers. Me personally I like to follow 2 or 3 teams all year and cap their games only! But I'm given many games and winners from my local as hes been making me money every baseball season for the past 10 years. This year I asked him if I can post these games at a forum and he said I don't give a f uck,lol. He doesn't know though I posting at the largest forum in the world,lol!
